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The 2008 NAME Forecast Forum Lindsey N. Long Wyle Information Systems Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA October 2

The 2008 NAME Forecast Forum Lindsey N. Long Wyle Information Systems Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA October 20, 2008 2008 Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Lincoln, NE Acknowledgements: David Gochis, NCAR Wei Shi, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Kingtse Mo,

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The 2008 NAME Forecast Forum Lindsey N. Long Wyle Information Systems Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA October 2

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  1. The 2008 NAME Forecast Forum Lindsey N. Long Wyle Information Systems Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA October 20, 2008 2008 Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Lincoln, NE Acknowledgements: David Gochis, NCAR Wei Shi, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Kingtse Mo, CPC/NCEP Myong-In Lee and Siegfried Schubert, GMAO/GSFC/NASA John Roads, Masao Kanamitsu, Laurel DeHaan and Elena Yulaeva, ECPC/UCSD

  2. Outline • What is the Forecast Forum? • The 2008 North American Monsoon Season • Model Output available on the Forecast Forum • Products currently included in the forum • Products we are experimenting with for inclusion next year

  3. The NAME Forecast Forum • Proposed at the NAME SWG9 as a NAME Project legacy activity • Goal: To provide real-time consolidation and assessment of intra-seasonal and seasonal monsoon forecasts • Model forecasts posted before start of monsoon • Initial conditions: March and April • Observed monsoon precipitation tracked in real-time during the season • Adopted as part of the CPC global monsoon monitoring activities

  4. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_ Monsoons/NAME/index.shtml

  5. For the initial implementation in 2008, only precipitation is monitored in terms of: Spatial Maps of Monthly Precipitation 2. Daily Zonal Precipitation Accumulation Time Series - Updated Daily r

  6. The 2008 Season

  7. JJAS 2008 Monthly Precipitation Average - URD

  8. Interannual Variations 2008 = Wet Year Bar Color: El Nino La Nina Neutral

  9. Onset date is July 4th 79-95 climatology

  10. Tropical Storms in Eastern Pacific, May - September, 2008 (Courtesy of UNISYS) • During June-Sept, 2008, there were 5 hurricanes, 6 named tropical storms (TS) and 6 tropical depressions in the eastern tropical Pacific • TSs brought plenty of rainfall to NAM region via GOC moisture surges

  11. Moisture Surge and Rainfall (a) Good correspondences between surges and rainfall. However, there were surges NOT related to tropical storms Tropical storms in east Pacific associated with NAM rainfall: Hurricane-1 Boris Jun 27-Jul 4 Hurricane-2 Elida Jul 12-29 Hurricane-2 Fausto Jul 16-22 Hurricane-1 Genevieve Jul 21-27 Hurricane-3 Hernan Aug 6-13 TS Iselle Aug 13-17 Depression 11E Aug 21-23 Jul 1 (b) Aug 30 Fausto Hernan Depression 11E Iselle Boris (Courtesy of Dr. K. Mo)

  12. Summary of 2008 Season • During JJAS 08, both the southwest US (AZNM) and NAM Core area received above-average precipitation • Onset date: July 4th in AZ/NM region • Based on rainfall data • Climatological Onset ~ July 3rd • Very wet July associated with active TC activities in Eastern Pacific and GOC moisture surges

  13. The Forecast:So how do the models do?

  14. JJAS 2008 URD CFS IC04 GMAO IC04

  15. JJAS 2008 URD ECPC-CM IC04 ECPC-DS IC04

  16. (NW Mexico)

  17. (Arizona)

  18. (New Mexico)

  19. (Baja)

  20. New Mexico Arizona 4 Corners S. CA

  21. Central Mexico NW Mexico Baja SW Mexico

  22. 2008 Tropical Cyclones Produced by the CFS Green Tropical Storm Duration: Jun 17 – Jul 5 Min Press: 982 mb Max Winds: 78 knots Blue Tropical Storm Duration: Jul 12 – 29 Min Press: 1003 mb Max Winds: 43 knots Orange Tropical Storm Duration: Aug 10 – 30 Min Press: 981 mb Max Winds: 86 knots Brown Tropical Storm Duration: Sep 12 – 29 Min Press: 981 mb Max Winds: 86 knots

  23. Moisture Surge and Rainfall - CFS Brown TS passing near Gulf Coincides with Green TS Blue TS passing near Gulf Orange TS passing near Gulf

  24. Summary • Global models failed to capture the monsoon precipitation • ECPC down-scaled regional model captured the above normal rainfall during the monsoon season in NW Mexico, AZ and NM regions • Further investigation needed into the merit of regional down-scaling (daily climatology) • Frequent surge events over Gulf of California related to tropical storm activities over the Eastern Pacific • Additional parameters for Forum next year • NAME Forecast Forum will be part of the CPC monsoon season review at the end of October • Future plan to continue the Forecast Forum and expand to include South American monsoon system • We would like to encourage additional modellers to consider joining the Forum

  25. Thank YouQuestions?

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