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SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST PowerPoint Presentation
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SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

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SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

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  1. SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST as of 6:00am Sept. 29 (Source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

  2. Tropical Storm Pepeng 6AM Sep 29:   8.7N 140.2E   65 kph   WSW @ 26 kph   Yap Island-Philippine Sea

  3. (PRE-PEPENG) strengthened into a Tropical Storm as it turns WSW closer to Yap and Ulithi Islands in Western Micronesia.*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of (PRE-PEPENG). This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. + Forecast Outlook: PRE-PEPENG is expected to continue moving due West for the next 24 hours...shall start turning more WNW then NW-ward later and entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system still tracking to the NW while over the Philippine Sea...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon when it is about 600 km. to the NE of Bicol Region on Friday evening, Oct 02 or early Saturday morning, Oct 3. It shall be about 300 km to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands aerly Sunday morning, October 4. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies. + Effects:PRE-PEPENG’s circulation has continued to improve with expanding spiral outer bands on the southern quadrant...its developing western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi and Yap Islands and is now spreading across Palau Island. Passing rains and gale-force winds may be expected along these outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along PRE-PEPENG’s rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of this storm. + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

  4. Tropical Depression Quedan 6AM Sep 29:   9.8N 152.6E   55 kph   WNW @ 17 kph   Southern Marianas

  5. Tropical Depression Quedan turning WNW..now on its closest approach to Chuuk Island.*Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED). This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. + Forecast Outlook: Pre-Quedan is expected to continue tracking WNW and intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system maintaining its WNW track, passing very close to the south of Guam by early Thursday morning Oct 01. PRE-QUEDAN shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on early Saturday morning (Oct 3) across the Northern Philippine Sea on Sunday Oct 04, threatening Okinawa Area. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies. + Effects:PRE_QUEDAN’s circulation continues to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands as of this time.