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US-RUSSIA ARMS CONTROL: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

US-RUSSIA ARMS CONTROL: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES. Steven Pifer Director, Arms Control Initiative March 25, 2013. New START Limits. 1550 deployed strategic warheads 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers Limits take full effect in 2018.

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US-RUSSIA ARMS CONTROL: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

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  1. US-RUSSIA ARMS CONTROL:PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES Steven Pifer Director, Arms Control Initiative March 25, 2013

  2. New START Limits • 1550 deployed strategic warheads • 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles • 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers • Limits take full effect in 2018

  3. US, Russian NuclearWarhead Levels USRussia Deployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740 Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000 Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700 (~4700) (~4450) Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000 Total warheads ~7700 ~8500 * Estimated actual number, not New START accountable number Numbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, “Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. and Russian Nuclear Forces”

  4. Big Treaty • Limit on each side of no more than 2000-2500 total nuclear warheads • Covers all except retired weapons • Aggregate limit forces trade • Sublimit of 1000 deployed strategic warheads • Limit of 500 deployed SDVs

  5. Notional Reduction to 2000 Total

  6. Implications for Triad • Russians below 500 and headed => ~400 deployed SDVs • US could maintain triad at 500: • 40 bombers, 192 SLBMs (12 x 16), 268 ICBMs • 40 bombers, 160 SLBMs (10 x 16) 300 ICBMs

  7. Major Russian Storage Sites Source: Joshua Handler, Princeton University

  8. US Nuclear Weapons in Europe • ~200 US nuclear bombs believed deployed at six sites in five countries Source: Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2012”

  9. Pentagon-MOD MD Talks • Areas of convergence re cooperative NATO-Russia arrangement • Transparency • Joint exercises • Two independent systems interacting • Data fusion center • Planning and operations center

  10. Russia Under New START New START Numbers, Sept 2012 New START LimitUSRussia Deployed strategic delivery vehicles (700) 806 491 Deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers (800) 1034 884 Deployed warheads (1550) 1722 1499

  11. US, Russian NuclearWarhead Levels USRussia Deployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740 Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000 Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700 Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000 Total warheads ~7700 ~8500 * Estimated actual number, not New START accountable number Numbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, “Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. and Russian Nuclear Forces”

  12. Verification

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