Research & Information

1. Dorset Housing Market Assessment Stakeholder Event 1st December 2006. Research & Information

2. Introduction What is a housing market Assessment? Why do one in Dorset? What are the aims? What area is being covered? How is it being tackled? Where are we in the process? Research & Information

3. What is a Housing market Assessment? • Study to investigate the need and demand for housing within a given market area. • Broader than just a Housing Need study. • Examines socio – economic trends, demand pressures, key drivers. • Projects future need for affordable and market housing. • Will influence development of Housing and Planning Policy. Research & Information

4. Why do one in Dorset? • Draft PPS3 and Practise Guidance • RSS - DTZ Study 2004. • Concerns that Dorset HNS out of date / incompatible. • Dorset one of 3 pilots in the SW - £20,000 Housing Body funding. Research & Information

5. What are the aims? • Analyse secondary and primary data in order to identify the location and amount of market and affordable housing needed. • Provide evidence to inform RSS and LDF development. • Provide evidence to inform public sector housing delivery decisions at local and strategic levels. • Involve the private sector and other stakeholders in preparing the assessment. • Disseminate the findings widely. Research & Information

6. What area is being covered? Starting point - two sub regional Housing markets. • Bournemouth/Poole (covers six LAs)(Pilot study area.) • Dorchester/Weymouth (covers 2 LAs) Influence of Yeovil + New Forest District and wider SE region also recognised. Research & Information

7. How is it being tackled? • Partnership - 8 Dorset LAs + 2 neighbours, HBF, RSLs, EAs etc. Meets approx every 8 weeks. • Project Team - 6 key Housing, Planning + R/I officers + GOSW/SWRA. Meets approx every 3 weeks. Email contact. • Aim to do as much research work in-house as possible. • Need to update Housing Needs info. so new County-wide survey commissioned. Research & Information

8. Where are we in the process? Dorset-wide Survey of Housing Need and Demand commissioned – questionnaires out in New Year. Research work underway – • Review of existing strategies/policies • Definition of sub- markets within each HMA • Survey of estate agents (August - stage 1) • Analysis of the current housing / demographic / economic structure. • Projection of future employment needs. Research & Information

9. Dorset Housing Market Assessment What we know so far! Research & Information

10. Housing market assessment areas • DTZ Pieda • 2001 Census – levels of self containment • School Catchments • Shopping Catchments • Transport Networks • Hospital Catchments Research & Information

11. Housing market assessment areas Research & Information

12. Housing market assessment areas • 2001 Census – levels of self containment • 70% of all migrants moved within the area • Link to travel to work areas • Analysis found this threshold was too high Research & Information

13. Housing market assessment areas • School catchments • Influential at a very local level • Secondary school catchments focus on the market towns in rural areas • Shopping catchments • Focussed on market towns • Smaller than the sub-regional market areas Research & Information

14. Housing market assessment areas Research & Information

15. Housing market assessment areas Research & Information

16. Housing market assessment areas Research & Information

17. Population & household composition • Total Population • Bournemouth & Poole is the largest HMA in terms of population. 350,000 in the core area and 150,000 in the periphery. • The Dorchester & Weymouth HMA has a total population of 140,000. Of these 56,000 are in the Weymouth core and 16,000 in Dorchester core. • Over 50,000 of Dorset’s residents fall within the periphery of Yeovil HMA, in North West Dorset. Research & Information

18. Population & household composition • Age Structure • Overall Dorset has a large proportion of older people. • In general the core areas’ of all the HMA’s in Dorset have a higher proportion of younger people whilst the periphery areas have more people in all age groups over 44 years. Research & Information

19. Population & household composition • Age Structure – Bournemouth & Poole HMA • B&P core has the highest proportion of young adults. Almost 17% are aged 16-29 years, clearly influenced by the University. • Within the core the figure varies dramatically. In Christchurch just 11% are 16-29years, in Bournemouth the figure is 20% • The periphery has a high proportion of older people, particularly those aged 45-64 years (27%). Research & Information

20. Population & household composition • Age Structure – Dorchester & Weymouth HMA • In general the population is older than in Bournemouth & Poole HMA. • The core areas of Dorchester and Weymouth have a higher proportion of younger people than in the periphery. 14% are aged 16-29 years in the core areas, this figure falls to 12% in the periphery. • Dorchester & Weymouth periphery are has the highest proportion of people aged 45-64 years in the County at almost 28%. Research & Information

21. Population & household composition • Age Structure – North West Dorset HMA • In general the population is older than in the other HMA areas. • 24% of the population are aged 65+ years. Only Christchurch within Bournemouth & Poole core has a higher proportion of older people. • In Yeovil (which represents the core of this HMA) only 16% are aged 65+ years. • Yeovil has a much higher proportion of younger people (17% aged 16-29) than North West Dorset, in line with the other core areas in Dorset. Research & Information

22. Population & household composition • Household composition – Bournemouth & Poole HMA • In Bournemouth & Poole HMA the core area has a higher proportion of smaller households such as single people, lone pensioners and lone parents. • The periphery area is dominated by couples; married, co-habiting and pensioner. • These differences are a reflection of the different age structures in the core and periphery, and the type of accommodation available. Research & Information

23. Population & household composition • Household composition – Dorchester & Weymouth HMA • Similar to B&P HMA, Dorchester and Weymouth core areas have a higher proportion of smaller households such as single people, lone pensioners and lone parents. • The periphery area is dominated by couples; married, co-habiting and pensioner. • Lone parent families make up 8% of households in the cores and just 6.5% in the periphery. All areas are well below the national average of 9.5%. Research & Information

24. Population & household composition • Household composition – North West Dorset HMA • North West Dorset has the highest proportion of lone pensioner households in the County. They are concentrated in the market towns of Gillingham, Shaftesbury and Sherborne. • In the more rural areas couple households dominate. • North West Dorset has the lowest proportion of lone parent households in the County with less than 6%. • Yeovil shows similar patterns to the core areas in Dorset. Almost 16% of households are occupied by single people (excluding pensioners). Just above the national average. Research & Information

25. Economy and Labour Market • What are people doing and where do they work? • Do people live in the same place as they work? • How does the economy shape the characteristics of the area and the prosperity of its residents? • Where is future growth expected to take place? • Have we the workforce supply to meet future demand? Research & Information

26. Economy and Labour Market Source: Census of Population 2001, ONS Research & Information

27. Economy and Labour Market • Unemployment • Unemployment has fallen more than average. • Most unemployment is probably frictional – a temporary period of unemployment whilst people switch between jobs. • Low unemployment suggests a small pool of workers available to meet labour demand with potential skill mismatch problems. Significant increase in labour demand is likely to require net additions to Dorset’s labour supply as workers cannot be sourced from the unemployed and the economically inactive may be reluctant to return to work. Research & Information

28. Economy and Labour Market Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2004, ONS Research & Information

29. Economy and Labour Market Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2004, ONS Research & Information

30. Economy and Labour Market • Characteristics of commuters • Bournemouth & Poole • Self-containment is highest here, especially the core with 83% of residents aged 16-74 in employment both living and working in the area • Net loss of 6,111 commuters • In-commuters to the core tend to be older than local workers • In-commuters to the core are more likely to be in higher level occupations than local workers • About one-quarter of working residents in the periphery commute to the core to work • Figures suggest that highly skilled working residents in the periphery are likely to be commuting away from their home area to work Research & Information

31. Economy and Labour Market • Characteristics of commuters • Dorchester & Weymouth • Self-containment is fairly high in the core with about two-thirds of residents aged 16-74 in employment both living and working here • Net loss of 5,486 commuters • About one-fifth of working residents in the periphery commute to the core to work • More than one in ten working Weymouth residents commutes to Dorchester • In-commuters to Dorchester are likely to be in higher level occupations Research & Information

32. Economy and Labour Market • Characteristics of commuters • North-West Dorset • Self-containment is lower here with 63% of residents aged 16-74 in employment both living and working in North-West Dorset • Net loss of 2,700 commuters • North-West Dorset working residents are most likely to commute outside the Dorset sub-region to work • Higher skilled residents are likely to be commuting outside the area to work Source: Census of Population 2001, ONS Research & Information

33. Economy and Labour Market • Productivity Source: GVA data and Annual Business Inquiry 2004, ONS Research & Information

34. Economy and Labour Market Source: HM Land Registry Apr-Jun 06 All properties; ASHE 2006 ONS Research & Information

35. Economy and Labour Market Source: GDHI data, ONS Research & Information

36. Economy and Labour Market • Employment growth • Three out of five jobs in the Bournemouth & Poole core area • Largely service sector based • Much the same expected in the next decade Source: DCC from Cambridge Econometrics LEFM05, SWRA Research & Information

37. Economy and Labour Market Replacement demand: • the need to replace workers who leave eg through ill health or retirement. • Around six times expansion demand alone: • So 2006-2016: • 26,000 new jobs in Dorset sub-region • 141,800 more through replacement demand Research & Information

38. Economy and Labour Market Source: Dorset RSS population projections, upper set Research & Information

39. Economy and Labour Market Source: Dorset RSS population projections, upper set; DCC from Cambridge Econometrics LEFM05, SWRA Research & Information

40. Economy and Labour Market Source: Census of Population 2001, ONS Research & Information

41. Economy and Labour Market Source: Census of Population 2001, ONS Research & Information

42. Economy and Labour Market Source: Census of Population 2001, ONS Research & Information

43. Economy and Labour Market • Migrant workers • Number of migrants has increased greatly since A8 accession Source: National Insurance number registrations, DWP Research & Information

44. Economy and Labour Market • Migrant workers • Largely from Poland Source: National Insurance number registrations 2005/06, DWP Research & Information

45. Economy and Labour Market • Filling the gap • Across Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole: • 26,000 new jobs projected over next ten years • 19,300 more 2016-2026 • But replacement demand also to be considered: • a further 141,800 jobs to be filled over the next ten years • Gap between labour supply and labour demand: • Fill the gap? • Narrow the gap? Research & Information

46. Economy and Labour Market • Denis Turner, Chief Economist at HSBC, pointed out recently: “the message is simple. If the people are not allowed to come to the work, the work will go to them, with the obvious consequences for growth and living standards”. Research & Information

47. Housing stock – House prices/rents and Housing supply • What is the character of the existing stock? • Are second homes a real problem? • What are we building now? • What is the availability/price of property? • What factors are affecting market demand? • What is the need for affordable housing? • Are we addressing that need? • Conclusions Research & Information

48. Character of existing stock • Flats dominate in B/P core (32%: 19% nationally) • Detached/semis high in periphery (70%:54%) • Owner occ/mortgage high throughout area. • Low levels of public rented apart from Dorchester • Private rented generally at/above national levels • Few small dwellings (1-3 rooms) in periphery • Overcrowding below national levels apart from B/P core. Research & Information

49. Are second homes a real problem? Second homes declined between 1991 and 2001. Need to be sure of definition. Second homes over 6% of D/W Periphery, Elsewhere limited to 2% or less; nationally 0.7% Research & Information

50. What are we building now? 1996 – 2006 34,480new dwellings 48% houses 47% flats 5% bungalows Research & Information