security in an era of global disruptions n.
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Ideological Polarization

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Ideological Polarization

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  1. Security in an Era of Global Disruptions Ideological Polarization Lt. General (Ret.) Orit Adato adato3@bezeqint.netISRAEL

  2. Polarization’s diverse motivations: 1. Religious– Such as radical Islamism in general, and Sunna / Shiah within the radical Islamism in particular. (Iran Vs. Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yamane) 2. National / Territorial - Such as the European's separation desires and separation process (Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Chechnya, Spain), or the Israeli - Palestinian dispute.

  3. 3.Socio Economical – Deep gapes between parts of society, revolutionist within countries, civilian riots and demonstrations such as the "Arab Spring" in the Middle East, Europe at the last century. 4. Extreme Ideology - Such as Fascism, Anarchism, Communism, Racism or even Liberalism Vs. Conservatism. (Different tribes in Africa, Ruanda, South Sudan, Afro-American population in the US, Mexicans in the US etc.)

  4. This polarization might turn into violence & terrorism through escalation stages: Pragmatism Dogmatism Extremism Terrorism

  5. Escalation Stages: • Pragmatism There is a problem/dispute, things are being discussed between parties, reciprocal declarations, contained during negotiations, talks, and still quiet.

  6. 2. Dogmatism – There are minor confrontations based on disagreements, high level of reciprocal declarations of parties against each other, sometimes dealing with mediators, still containing in general the dispute.

  7. 3. Extremism – - High level of disagreements, - distrust between parties, - hate expressions, less will to maintain discussions (even through third party /mediator), "Blame Game", occasional violent confrontations, escalation.

  8. 4. Terrorism – Direct intentional violence, trying to achieve goals by force, rage, hate, losing any ethical codes, force as the only tool.

  9. Diverse Motivations and Stages

  10. "Trigger Point" The critical turning point is between stage 3 and 4 “ External Catalyst” 1 2 3 The Slippery Slope of Ideological Polarization 4 This is the real TERROR.

  11. “Trigger Points”: - High level of violent/criminal acts by immigrants in the community - Governmental Brutality and killing of demonstrators in a civilian demonstration

  12. - Frustration derives from personal/professional circumstances - Direct & Indirect incitement utilizing vulnerable population

  13. Coping

  14. Possible Actionsof Coping • Identifying changes / environment among focused population • Identifying the stage in the escalation, evaluation of the situation • Identifying potential "Trigger Points“

  15. 4. Calming down environment and containing/ dealing with frustration 5. Professional "Hands on" Intelligence cooperation 6. Multi dimension cooperation models: Religious, cultural and educational, at all levels: Municipal – communities / National / Regional / International.

  16. "Lone Wolves“ – Test Case

  17. The Lone wolf’s spotting pool Criminal In community – Ideological As a part of his criminal activities • In Prison – Vulnerable inmates • Looking for belonging • Looking for support Frustrated “ I AM SOMEONE” Recruited

  18. of terror Religious Support in prison ? Frustration Finance Indoctrination Weak population

  19. “Consultation” Indoctrination sessions Ideological commitment Recruiting Process in Prison Penal Offender looking for support “Persuasion” Friendship Company Backing Grouping Participation in Religious prays “Temptation” “Threats” “Extortion” Religious Fanatics Test missions (In & Out) Rewards Support Encouragement Recruitment An Terror Inmate flourished

  20. Minimize risks in prison: • Increasing awareness among staff • Correctional intelligence system • Cooperation with law enforcement / security agencies

  21. Coping the risks : - Personal classification of terror inmates. - Intentional planned placement of each inmate - Specific relevant programs - Potential De - Radicalization?

  22. - Professional monitoring of each inmate behavior. - Identifying vulnerable penal inmates (potential recruits) - Preventing Radicalization process of penal inmates (tight monitoring)

  23. 8. Possible rehabilitationprocess - Inmate will is an essential basic condition for any rehabilitation process. - Continuity of rehabilitation process is essential for an effective process – inside and outside prison. - Everything being done inside prison has to be in accordance with an outside effect as well.

  24. What can be done: • - Continuous rehabilitation process in the community. • Acknowledgement of Terror inmates as offenders among the community. • Engage local community leadership in policy planning & developing. (Increasing trust)

  25. - Professional “eyes” on the ground. • Interactive relations between law enforcement agencies and local community leadership. • - Support moderate religious leaders, to increase their influence on the community.

  26. Option 2 – To enlighten Option 1 – To ignore