The Long History of Economic Growth and its Future Implications

1. The Long History of Economic Growth and its Future Implications Robin Hanson George Mason University

2. Calvin & Hobbes

3. A Fog of Future Possibilities To Deal With: • Seek big, robust, sharp change • Combine expert knowledge from several fields • Beware: experts in A with newspaper level knowledge of B.

4. Outline • World long-term econ trend mostly steady • Now doubles in ~15 years • So far have seen 2-4 “singularities” when • world econ growth rate increased x150-250 • In much less than a previous doubling time • Next?: by 2100, takes 5 yr, double monthly • Candidate driver: whole brain emulation

5. Recent US GDP Growth

6. World Product, 1950-2006

7. [De Long ’98]

8. [DeLong ‘98]

9. World Product, 1950-2006

10. World Product, 1-2000

11. World Product, 10K BC-2K AD Singularities!

12. PaleoDemography • DeLong 98 follows Kremer 93 in using Deevey 60 est. • I substitute Hawks et al. 00, who posit exp. pop. growth from ~10K 2MYA. • Based on Multi-regional model (vs. Out of Africa) • 2MYA - simul., signif. new size, pelvis, brain, teeth, … • DNA says inbreeding pop ~10K, before 1.5MYA

13. World Product, 2 Million BC+

14. Modeling Exponential Sequences Exponential Modes CES Combined Method: Min Doubling Time Factor 1st Date Mode Biggest World Product Factor

15. Error 9.6% 2.0% 1.7%

17. Bigger Brains Millions of Years

18. World Product Growth Rate Could It Happen Again? Industry Farming Hunting Brains

19. Growth Mode Statistics

20. Forecasting The Next Mode Sample growth rate transition Transition date

21. What Could Cause A New Singularity?!

22. Space

23. Fusion

24. Nanotechnology

25. Robots

26. Industry Shares of US GDP

27. Factor Shares of Income

28. Moore’s Law [Kurzweil ‘05]

29. A Simple Robot Growth Model Assume constant: Seek These

30. Switch Between Growth Modes Exogenous Tech Endogenous Tech Pre-Robot Post-Robot Learning by doing:

31. 100x Faster Growth Isn’t Crazy Slow Mid Fast

32. Economics of Robots • Staple of fiction – ancient legends to TV now • If have more of X, do you want Y more (complement) or less (substitute)? • Machine as Substituteto human labor • Ricardo 1821, most science fiction • Wages fall to machine cost • Automation as Complementto human labor • Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus • Wages have risen as automation cost have fallen • So are robots a substitute or complement?

33. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks Robots Substitute On Task, But Tasks Are Complements Tasks Are Complements Machines Do These Humans Do These Substitute For Task

34. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

35. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

36. Human Level Robots Require • Sensors/Actuators (arms/eyes) now • Processors <~2040 • Software ?? • Direct code it? Hard! • Learn from brain organization? Eventually? • Simulate particular human brain? Can Do!

37. Simulating Dominos • Wave speed, energy are robust • Only a few details matter • Brains seem similar

38. Needed To Emulate Brains • Model each brain cell type • Scan – freeze, slice, 2D scan • Computer (very parallel task)

39. An Em Future

40. Cheap For Robots • Immortality (even so, most can’t afford) • Travel – transmit to new body • Nature – don’t need ecosystems • Labor – work gets less tool intensive • Copies! • Malthusian population explosion, rapid growth • Wages may fall to fast-falling hardware cost • Depends on shape of mental-task landscape • Not matter if they slave or free • Only Draconian population/wage laws could stop

41. Emulations Feel Human • They remember a human life • Retain human tendencies • love, gossip, argue, sing, violate, play, work, innovate • More alienated worlds - as farms, factories were • Office work in virtual reality, • Physical work in android bodies • More unequal abilities, like our fantasy/fiction • Can run minds faster, use wildly different bodies • Many won’t believe are conscious, or “is me” • But same social implications, few dozen is plenty

42. Humans Eclipsed • Wages well below human subsistence • Though some humans may find servant jobs • But rich if held non-wage assets • Investments double as fast as economy! • Robot-Human war unlikely if integrated • E.g., left-handed don’t war against righties • Most emulations of the few best humans • First mover advantage to show quality

43. More Implications • Copies rent bodies, or own on loan • Evicted if can’t pay!! • To recoup training investment, copy cabal limit copy wage • Security to prevent bootleg copies • Fast growth discourages transport, encourages local production • Laws hold copies co-responsible • <1cm robots seem feasible • Mind/body sped up with size reduction • 0.2in. tall => Subjective year/day in 24hr/4min • One skyscraper holds billions - is megacity • City radius now is hour travel distance => 10sec

44. My Views On “Singularity” • Yes: General machine intelligence will come, make huge difference • Not soon: roughly 20 to 200 years away • Not trend: econ growth has been steady • Not local: an integrated economy grows together, not basement takes over world • Not hand-coded: probably brain emulation • Not horizon: we can see past, if fuzzier • New economy doubles weekly to monthly • Natural wages fall below human subsistence • “Economics of Singularity,” IEEE Spectrum 6/08