Perspectives on Environmental Regime in Nepal: Climate Change & Issues in Governance

1. Perspectives on Environmental Regime in Nepal: Climate Change & Issues in Governance Bhupesh Adhikary World Conference on Recreating South Asia: Democracy, Social Justice and Sustainable Development, IIC, New Delhi, 24-26 February 2011

2. Overview • Atmospheric Science – Climate Change • Historical Perspectives • Scientific Assessment: Nepalese Atmospheric Environment • Observations • Models • Uncertainties/Recommendations • Environmental Policy Formulation and Governance • Sound environmental policy • Issues in climate change and governance • Nepal’s current model of action in climate change • Conclusions and recommendations

3. Historical Perspectives • Developed Nations • Svante Arrhenius, 1896 - CO2 and warming • Simple model, Low CO2 levels, did not anticipate exponential rise • 1957 – International Geophysical Year • 1962- Silent Spring Book • 1970- Earth Day • 1972- UNEP • 1987- Montreal Protocol • 1992- UNFCCC • 1997- Kyoto Protocol • COP meetings • Nepal • Opened to the outside in 1950s • Modern Economic Development Planning 1956 • Environmental degradation- Soil and Water Conservation • Department of Hydrological Survey – 1965, DHM -1967 • Atmospheric composition and air pollution 1980s • MOPE-1995, Acts-1996, 1997. Signed treaties before focused ministry, and regulations. • 2000 – Studies on urban air and limited to Kathmandu Valley • Climate Change issues in policy documents 2000.

4. Historical Lessons • World has pondered on environmental issues for more than a century and created a vast amount of knowledge base. • Nepal has very limited and fragmented knowledge about environmental issues and climate change. • Documentation and knowledge about indigenous survival skills degrading

5. Scientific Assessment: Nepalese Atmospheric Environment • Summer Monsoon • Agricultural production and daily subsistence of millions • Climatic Variables- Observations, GCM models • Temperature Distribution • Precipitation Statistics • Glacier Studies • snow cover, source of water during dry period

6. Scientific Assessment: Observations • Shrestha et al., 1999 • Maximum Temperature trends – 1971 to 1994 • Rise in maximum temperature trends • Altitudinal variation in rise of maximum temperatures. • High altitude showing higher rise • Seasonal variation • Highest rise in the post monsoon (October – November) • Aerosols?? • Shrestha et al., 2000 • Precipitation 1948 to 1994 • Highly variable, show decadal variability, no clear trend • Decadal variability seen in different altitudes

7. Scientific Assessment: Observations Continued • Glaciers • In general are retreating from the Middle of 19th century to much of 20th century (Mayeski et al, 1979, Raina 2010) • Issues • Is the rate of melt faster in the last several decades? • Is this accelerated melt due to global warming • Uncertainties • Limited peer reviewed papers, IPCC retracting the statements. • Work of NGOs such as ICIMOD are helping to create inventory • Work of Kulkarni et al., using remote sensing techniques , suggest that small glaciers are melting faster and is due to global warming.

8. Scientific Assessment: Models • First usage of GCM in Nepal 1997 • Crude resolution, 2.22° x 3.75° complex topography • Limited physics and chemistry, no aerosol, step function CO2 • Handful more global model ensembles • Agrawala et al., 2003 • NCSVT, 2009 • Regional model • Shrestha et al, 2010 • HADRM2 and PRECIS • GCM driven, unclear about regional emissions, aerosols?

9. Scientific Assessments: Lessons • GCM and regional models • Temperature over Nepal is warming • Rise in temperature varies 1.2 to 4.7 °C • Seasonality in warming, winter months more then others • Higher elevation warming more than lower elevation • Precipitation • Cannot satisfactorily reproduce observations • Variable, with no clear trend

10. Uncertainties/Recommendations • Nepal – LDC • Limited financial and technical resources, learn from world and region • Aerosols • High spatial and temporal variability • High loading in the winter months (ABCs) • BC second to CO2 in contributing to global warming • Seems to perturb monsoon circulation • “NO Regrets Development Policy” • Tie climate change mitigation with other co-benefits, such as indoor air and health • Reduce BC emissions

11. Environmental Policy Formulation and Governance • Environment – Government, Public Good, Cannot be resolved by private sector alone • Sound Environmental Policy (Vig et al.,) • Problem recognition, different stakeholders definition and perception • Scientific knowledge and solution possibilities • Role of media in awareness • State of economy and strength of opposing groups • Montreal Protocol

12. Climate Change issues in governance • Betsil et al., (2007), Decade of cities and climate change research • Interface between knowledge and policy • Multi-level governance and policy fragmentation • Rhetoric versus reality on the ground • Applicable to Nepal as well

13. Nepal: Governance and Climate Change • Environment pollution: relatively new area, governance in climate change has ways to go • Frequent structural changes in institution • Ministry • Personnel • Outsourcing of work, 1st CDM project- consultant- baseline study • INGOs / NGOs are the main drivers of environmental policies • Government accepts their role • eg. “Mountain Alliance Initiative” • Cabinet Meeting at Everest, Rally in NYC and Copenhagen (COP) • Attract world attention, but will the Nepalese poor benefit?

14. Recommendation: Way Forward for Nepal • Government has to take the driver’s seat • Define lively-hood drivers and act to reduce poverty • Understand and document indigenous knowledge and survival skills, enhance these further • Negotiations are taking place in national/international scale impacts are on a local level • GLOF • “What flood risks one is actually trying to adapt to and what risks are seen as reasonable is far from evident” • “No Regrets Development Pathway” • Instead of capacity building of everyone and everything, decide the depth of training in the government, and instead provide policy alternatives (BAT, BAU) and let the people decide.

15. Thank You !! Questions ??