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2019 Halftime Economic Report: Nation, North Carolina, Chatham Co.

A comprehensive analysis of major national economic questions including the state of the economy, trade disputes, Federal Reserve plans, and the possibility of slower growth. The report also highlights the continued economic growth, stable household debt, and challenges posed by trade wars. Additionally, it focuses on the potential impact of foreign recessions and the growth of North Carolina's economy, particularly in Chatham County. The report concludes with predictions on future economic developments such as no recession, a small China trade deal, Fed rate cuts, a UK trade deal, and potential policy initiatives by the Trump administration.

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2019 Halftime Economic Report: Nation, North Carolina, Chatham Co.

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  1. 2019 HALFTIME ECONOMIC REPORT: NATION, NORTH CAROLINA, CHATHAM CO. Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University

  2. MAJOR NATIONAL ECONOMIC QUESTIONS IS ECONOMY IN GOOD SHAPE? RESOLUTION TO TRADE DISPUTES? FEDERAL RESERVE PLANS? SLOWER GROWTH OR NEGATIVE GROWTH?

  3. ECONOMIC GROWTH CONTINUES(annualized rates)

  4. HOUSEHOLDS ARE ABLE TO CARRY THEIR DEBT

  5. HOUSEHOLD DEBT DELINQUENCY RATES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE

  6. RATIO OF PRIVATE DEBT TO GDP HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN – A GOOD SIGN

  7. BUT, RELATIVE SIZE OF CONSUMER SPENDING HAS MODERATED

  8. ANDBUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN

  9. IF A RECESSION DOES OCCUR ORIGIN WILL BE ON BUSINESS SIDE LOWER EARNINGS AND MARGINS – LEADING TO CUTBACKS AND DECLINING VALUES

  10. TRADE WARS * NEW NAFTA: USMCA, BUT PENDING * EU TALKS * S. KOREA TREATY * JAPAN TALKS REMAINING BIG CHALLENGE – CHINA MAY HAVE ALREADY REDUCED GDP GROWTH BY 0.6% POINTS

  11. POSSIBILITY OF FOREIGN RECESSIONS ECONOMIC GROWTH IS SLOWING IN EUROPE TO 0% - BREXIT JAPAN’S GROWTH RATE IS UNDER 1% CHINA’S GROWTH RATE IS 6%, BUT LOWEST IN 25 YEARS HOWEVER, TRADE IS A MINOR PART OF THE US ECONOMY

  12. THE FEDERAL RESERVE BLINKED AND REVERSED THE “PUNCH BOWL POLICY” AFTER RAISING RATES FOR 4 YEARS, REVERSED COURSE AND IS LOWERING RATES

  13. NORTH CAROLINA

  14. GROWTH ALSO CONTINUES • MOST RECENT DATA – ADDING JOBS AT FASTER RATE THAN NATION • SLOWDOWN IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE ISSUES FOR FARMERS HAVE HURT

  15. SOME OTHER GOOD NEWS NON-METRO COUNTIES ARE SHARING IN JOB GROWTH TECH SECTOR BOOMING MIDDLE-PAYING JOBS GROWING FEWER COUNTIES DEPOPULATING

  16. AFTER THE HIT FROM FLORENCE, NC’s GROWTH RATE APPEARS TO BE STEADY

  17. CHATHAM COUNTY ECONOMY FOR YEAR 1Q, 2018 TO 1Q, 2019: JOB BASE IN COUNTY GREW 2.1%, ABOUT SAME AS 2.2% IN NC

  18. WHAT I SEE COMING 1. NO RECESSION 2. “SMALL” CHINA TRADE DEAL 3. FED LOWERS RATES 4. UK TRADE DEAL 5. TRUMP ADM WILL PUSH * PAYROLL TAX CUT * INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN

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