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Simple Analysis and Parsimonious Forecasting

Simple Analysis and Parsimonious Forecasting. Vernon Gair. Previous Module Summary. About the Company.

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Simple Analysis and Parsimonious Forecasting

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  1. Simple Analysis and Parsimonious Forecasting Vernon Gair

  2. Previous Module Summary

  3. About the Company • Aéropostale, Inc. is a primarily mall-based, specialty retailer of casual apparel and accessories, principally targeting 14 to 17 year-old young women and men through its Aéropostale stores and 4 to 12 year-old kids through its P.S. from Aéropostale stores.

  4. 1 Yr. Stock Chart

  5. Measures of Performance

  6. Implied Price Per Share

  7. Return on Enterprise Operations

  8. Return on Net Enterprise Assets

  9. Parsimonious Revenue

  10. Parsimonious EPM (from Sales)

  11. Parsimonious EATO

  12. Parsimonious Forecasting

  13. Bloomberg Sales Estimates

  14. Bloomberg Growth Estimates

  15. Parsimonious Forecast

  16. Analysis and Assumptions • Macroeconomic factors heavily influence the industry • Consensus analysts estimates suggest negative sales growth and Net Losses for the foreseeable future. • Underperforming industry averages in Sales & Returns • Adjusted Assumptions for each year, to move from Analysts estimates toward historical averages

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