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$100

Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150?. Macroeconomic Advisers Quarterly Meeting June 2008. $150. $100. John Cook, Director EIA Petroleum Division June 11, 2008. ?. WTI Crude Oil Prices: 2001-2009. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook , June 2008. .

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$100

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  1. Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150? Macroeconomic Advisers Quarterly Meeting June 2008 $150 $100 John Cook, Director EIA Petroleum Division June 11, 2008 ?

  2. WTI Crude Oil Prices: 2001-2009 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2008.

  3. WTI Futures Curves: The Deferred Price Has Also Increased in Recent Years 6/2/2008 8/1/2007 8/1/2006 12/1/2005 12/1/2004 12/1/2003 12/2/2002 Source: New York Mercantile Exchange.

  4. World Oil Consumption Growth Expected to Accelerate in 2008-2009. Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2008.

  5. The Global Oil Market Balance is Expected to Loosen Slightly in 2009. Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2008.

  6. Estimates of Non-OPEC Supply Growth have been Continually Too Optimistic in Recent Years Estimate 1 Year Ahead Estimate End of Current Year Sources: December editions of IEA’s Oil Market Report.

  7. Brazil, Former Soviet Union countries, and the U.S. Expected to Lead Non-OPEC Supply Growth. Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2008.

  8. OPEC Spare Capacity has Remained Low, with Most OPEC Countries Producing at Capacity. Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2008.

  9. OECD Commercial Stocks: from Record Highs to Near-Normal Levels Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2008.

  10. OECD Total Commercial Oil Stocks:About Average Levels This Year Source: International Energy Agency database, May 2008.

  11. U.S. Crude Inventories Expected to be in the Middle of the Normal Range History Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2008.

  12. OECD European Commercial Crude Oil Stocks: About Average (Absolute Levels) Source: International Energy Agency database, May 2008.

  13. OECD Pacific Commercial Crude Oil Stocks:Below Average (Absolute Levels) Source: International Energy Agency database, May 2008.

  14. As Spare Capacity Increases in 2009, OECD Days Supply Will Remain Flat Sources: WTI: Reuters; OECD Days Supply: International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates; World Excess Production Capacity: U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates.

  15. Typical Economic Relationship Between Surplus Production Capacity and Price Note: MMB/D is million barrels per day Source: Reuters WTI; EIA Calculations

  16. Modeling Crude Price with Fundamentals Source: EIA

  17. 1980s U.S. Refining Capacity Surplus Disappeared in Last Half of 1990s Operable Capacity Gross Inputs Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

  18. Seasonal Crude Use Tight in Early Winter Source: IEA 10 Year Average Monthly Variations from Annual Average

  19. U.S. Four-Week Average Finished Gasoline Demand Has Shown Negative Growth This Year Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

  20. U.S. Four-Week Average Total Gasoline Imports Were Lower Than Last Year in March and April Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

  21. U.S. Gasoline Inventories are in the Average Range for This Time of Year Source: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, June 2008.

  22. Crude Oil and U.S. Gasoline Price Outlook Regular Gasoline Wholesale Gasoline Crude Oil (WTI) Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2008.

  23. U.S. Four-Week Average Total Distillate Demand Growth Has Also Been Negative Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

  24. U.S. Four-Week Average Total Distillate Imports Are Lower This Year Than the Past 2 Years Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

  25. Distillate Stocks Are Currently at the Bottom of the Average Range Forecast Actual NOTE: Colored band is the normal inventory range. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2008.

  26. New York Heating Oil - Gasoline Price SpreadJanuary 2000-present NYH No. 2 Heating Oil - NYH Conv. Regular Gasoline Source: Reuters Weekly Average Spot Prices

  27. European Distillate Demand Continues to Grow Source: International Energy Agency database, May 2008.

  28. OECD European Commercial Distillate Stocks: Above Average (Absolute Levels) Source: International Energy Agency database, May 2008.

  29. Europe – New York Heating Oil Price SpreadJanuary 2000-present ARA Gasoil- NYH Heating Oil Source: Reuters Weekly Average Spot Prices

  30. Chinese Oil Demand Shows Strong Yearly Growth in Recent Years Forecast Source: International Energy Agency database, May 2008.

  31. Much of China’s Oil Demand Growth in Last 2 Years Has Come From Gasoline and Diesel Source: BP World Statistics 2007.

  32. OECD Pacific Commercial Distillate Stocks:Below Average (Absolute Levels) Source: International Energy Agency database, May 2008.

  33. Singapore – Gulf Coast Heating Oil Price SpreadJanuary 2000-present Singapore Gasoil -Gulf Coast No. 2 Heating Oil Source: Reuters Weekly Average Spot Prices

  34. 2008 First Quarter U.S. Distillate Exports Unusually High

  35. U.S. Distillate Price Outlook On-Highway Diesel Wholesale Diesel Crude Oil Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2008.

  36. Conclusion: $100 or $150? • The crude outlook remains relatively tight with little supply or demand relief in the very short term. • Non OPEC supply lagging demand increases – but supplies on the horizon next year • OPEC unwillingness to increase production • Inventories indicating tight balances currently • But demand is shifting • While evidence indicates room still exists for more increases, factors are evolving to move prices back some. (Demand slowing in developed countries, price subsidies being lifted) • Watch distillate demand...

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