Land Use Planning

1. Land Use Planning Making Physical Connections – Part 1 How Much Land Do I Need For What?

3. The Inventory • Current Land Data • SIC Codes – 2, 4, 6 digit • Land Based Classification System

4. SIC Codes • Nine one-digit groups - #3 Trade • 67 two digit groups – Retail> food • 294 three-digit groups • 772 four digit groups • 3457 six digit groups • Auxiliary groups

5. Example SIC Codes • 0259 - Egg farms – poultry except chicken and turkey • 0279 - Honey Production • 5999 - Hot tubs – retail • 3716 - Recreational Vehicles • 7377 - Computer Rentals • http://www.wave.net/upg/immigration/sic_index.html

6. Land Based System • Activity Codes • Function Codes • Ownerships Codes • Site Codes • Structure Codes • Classification Data Base

7. Product – Current Map • The land use • Structure Type • Age of structure • Condition • Conformance

8. Current Parcel Uses

9. Lot By Lot – Land Use

10. Building Condition Map

11. Next Step - Standards • Purpose – To compare our community’s land use to current standards • Outcome – To pinpoint deficiencies • Link – To program needs into future land use plan

12. Journey To Land Use • When you come to a fork in the road – take it • Yogi Bera

13. Before Going On! • Three Characteristics of Population • Size (basic yardstick for space needs) • Composition (age, household type ..) • Spatial Distribution (where people are located)

14. Population Terms • Estimate – applies only to a time period between censuses or the current time • Projection – Is a set of methods to determine future population size based on past assumptions • Forecast – Effort to accurately predict a future population point based on modeled assumptions

15. Population Data • Primary Data – how do you obtain local primary data? • Secondary Data – Census?

16. Population Standards • Determine growth factors • Project population • Compare rates of growth/decrease with peers • Use comparative models to determine reasons for variance from peers

17. The Methods • The Big Four Methods • Trend Extrapolation • Ratio/Share • Disaggregate/simulation/component • Symptomatic Association

18. Trend Extrapolation • Quick – dirty – but generally works in normal populations • Linear Model • Exponential Change – compounding method. Rate of change is constant but the absolute change increases with compounding

19. Linear Series

20. Exponentials - Polynomials • Patterns of smaller and smaller incremental growth • Complicated patterns of growth change on regular frequencies • Explosive then incipient growth

21. Exponentials - Polynomials

22. Ratio- Share • Used only to estimate the ratio of small unit population to a larger/known unit • Extraterritorial areas • CEA units Unknown Population Known Population

23. Disaggregate • Cohort – component method • Components of change methods – Chicago transportation/land model • Vacancy/housing estimate models Cohorts

24. Symptomatic Models • A statistical equation is applied to known indicators: • Jobs • Building permits • School Enrollment • Water/power consumption

25. Population Variants – Estimate Projection Intervals • Est. World Pop 1950 – 2,523 • Est. World Pop 1990 – 5,687 • Low Variant 2050 – 7,662 • Medium Variant 2050 – 9,366 • High Variant 2050 – 11,156

26. World Pop. Variance High Series High Series

27. Population Method Problems • Forecasting when you should be projecting • The long range fairy (25 years) • Very rapid gains • Small area analysis rather than city as a whole • Large area analysis rather than just the reporting district

29. Translate Population • Housing needs • Retail/Trade Needs • Facilities needs • Manufacturing needs • Open space needs

30. Translating Requirements • Per capita approach – standards • Requires an LOS assumption 5.6 Ac. Parkland per 1,000 245 Structures per five miles per pumper Pad to parking ratio of 3:1 &5% water retention of record 10 year event

31. Translating Requirements • Demand approach • Based on current investigation of actual demand under the assumption that one size does not fit all • Income distribution approach • Survey approach for mass transit • Maintenance and useful life approach

32. Set Density Standards • L.U.I Index (Land Use Intensity) Calculation of the of floor area ratio to the open space ratio Ranges from 1 du/40Ac. To 650 du’s/Ac Calculate slack space equal to about 25% of all land area that is used for roads, facilities, and utilities

33. Just Checking!

34. Housing Needs • Disaggregation • Unit demand per population mix • Average square feet per mix • Pad site • Parking Ratio • Per/L.U.I mix

35. Density = 4.0 DU/Ac 8 units on 2 Ac. Lot Size 9,114 sf PAD = 1,490 sf Parking 500 sf

36. 32 units on 3.35 Ac Lot size 3,465 sf PAD 1,120 sf Parking 220 sf 9.55 DUs/Ac

37. Retail Trade Needs • Neighborhood Trade • Maximum travel distance = 4 min • Gross sf per family = 175 • Typical requirement = 7.5 acres • Parking Ratio 2 to 1 • Total requirements 319,200 sf

38. Community Cluster • Community Cluster • Maximum travel distance = 15 min • Gross sf per family = 35 sf • Typical requirement = 25 Ac (also equals one Super Wal-Mart • Parking Ratio = 3 to 1 • Pad site = 412,500 – 1,250,000sf

39. Regional Shopping • Regional Scale Facilities – 60 miles • 100,000 population served • Gross sf per family = 40 • Pad sites = 1.1 million sf • Parking ratio = 4 –1 • Total site requirements 60 Ac.

41. Galleria – Example Ratios

42. Regional SuperBlock

43. Another View

44. Facilities Calculations • Roads – streets – public parking and utility easements = .30 gross • Land Fill = 80 Ac per 20,000 served or 170 sf per person • Sewer = 60 Ac. Per 10,000 served or 85 Ac with sludge injection • Water = 252 Ac Ft. processed per 100 persons = 34 Ac/10,000 pers

45. Land Use Ratio - Visual

46. High Density Mobile Home Park

47. Facilities …………… • Schools – Neighborhood System • Kindergarten Center – 15 Ac (220) • Elementary Center – 20 Ac (240) • Middle School - 40 Ac (650) • High School 60 Ac (1,250)

48. School Sites

49. Middle School Site

50. NEIGHBORHOOD UNIT SYSTEM 160 Ac Target 5,000 persons per average unit