Progress in Southern Sudan 2005-2007

1. Progress in Southern Sudan 2005-2007 Presentation to the Sudan Consortium, Oslo, May 2008 Kuol Athian Mawien Minister of Finance GoSS

2. Situation in 2005 • In 2005, Southern Sudan faced the following situation: • High levels of insecurity; • 4.5 million displaced people; • Damaged or destroyed infrastructure; • Almost no private sector or economic activity • Limited access to basic services such as clean water, health care and education; and • Fragmented and low capacity governmental institutions.

3. JAM Expectations • The JAM laid out a detailed set of broad-ranging targets for 2005 - 2007. • Among other things, they expected: • Institutions to be established, staffed and functional, • Legal systems put in place, • Systems and institutions to be decentralised, and • A broad range of development activities to be implemented within a very short timeframe. • In the absence of formal planning structures in the South in 2005, targets were based on the JAM Clusters.

4. Assessment of Progress • GoSS made progress between 2005 – 2007 in: • Planning, policy and institution building; • Maintenance of security; and • Delivery of critical basic services and emergency roads. • However, progress was less than expected in some areas, particularly: • Passing of legislation; • Recruitment and training of key staff, in particular skilled basic service workers; • Decentralisation of core functions; and • Implementation of local private sector and rural livelihoods development.

5. Challenging factors • The rapid progress envisaged in the JAM underestimated the challenges GoSS would face. These included: • The difficulties of establishing a civil service and institutions to deliver services from scratch; • The slow start up of key donor delivery mechanisms such as the MDTF; and • Shortfalls in GoSS revenues and donor financing.

6. JAM Financing - Expectations • The JAM estimated the South’s needs to be $3.6 billion over the period 2005-2007. • Financing to Infrastructure and Basic Social Services was expected to amount to 57% of JAM expenditures. • $1.4 billion of JAM expenditures were expected to be financed by donors, and the rest by GoSS.

7. JAM Financing - Outturns • GoSS revenues for 2005-2007 fell short of JAM estimates by $901m, mainly due to optimistic forecasts for oil revenue, and revenue arrears. • Donor funding fell short by $886m. • GoSS maintained its JAM spending, and absorbed its revenue shortfall by lower spending in non-JAM areas, and a lack of reserve accumulation. • The donor funding shortfall meant that JAM spending estimates were not fully realised.

8. JAM Financing Estimates and Outturns

9. GoSS Cluster Spending. • GoSS’s budget was not executed according to JAM clusters. • However, a data comparison shows that GoSS managed to finance 50% of JAM spending in the Basic Social Services, Production and Infrastructure Clusters. • Our highest level of financing in absolute terms was for Basic Social Services $310m. • Our highest level of financing in percentage terms was for Infrastructure, which was 79% excluding national projects.

10. GoSS Cluster Spending

11. Sectoral Performance • GoSS’s analysis of its performance is based on its ten Budget Sectors, which it has been using since 2006 for planning & budgeting purposes. • The GoSS Budget Sectors are:

12. Accountability: Situation in 2005 • There were no systems, capacity or basic institutions for: • Public Financial Management (PFM) • Procurement • Anti-Corruption • Audit • Aid was based around humanitarian needs. • Several currencies were in operation. • Socio-economic data was not available. • Capacity for development planning was limited.

13. Accountability: Progress & Challenges • Annual budgets have been prepared & executed. • GoSS & State planning system is in place. • GoSS Aid Strategy is in place. • An orderly currency conversion took place. • The Banking system is being set up. • However, capacity for budget execution and procurement still needs strengthening. • Anti-corruption & audit activities need to be strengthened. Achievements Challenges

14. Economic Functions: Situation in 2005 • The private sector was very small, with limited opportunities for expansion. • Word of mouth was the primary medium for communicating information. • Telecoms infrastructure was very limited. • There was no commercial banking system to support private sector activity, and almost no access to Micro Finance.

15. Economic Functions: Progress & Challenges • 20 FM frequencies have been allotted, and 3 mobile phone providers are in operation. • The Chambers of Commerce has been established. • The informal private sector is expanding & cross-border trade has increased. • A comprehensive, streamlined regulatory framework for private sector development needs to be established. • Microfinance schemes need to be scaled up to provide credit to entrepreneurs. Achievements Challenges

16. Education: Situation in 2005 • The education system had a chronic shortage of skilled staff, infrastructure and equipment – 94% of teachers were untrained volunteers. • Learning was often disrupted because of drought, disease, food shortages and conflict. • Attendance, especially by girls, was negligible – only 18% attended school, and less than 1% completed studies. • Textbooks were in serious shortage. • The was no unified curriculum, syllabus or examination system. • Higher education was virtually non-existent.

17. Education: Progress & Challenges • Primary school enrolment has tripled since 2005, with 1 million now attending school, a third of whom are girls. • Policies & curricula have been developed. • Adult literacy campaigns have been very successful. • Nearly 5 million textbooks have been distributed. • However, teacher training needs to be increased. • School construction is below target, and needs to be accelerated. Achievements Challenges

18. Health: Situation in 2005 • Southern Sudan’s health outcomes were among the worst in the world: • 1 in 4 children died before the age of 5. • The maternal mortality rate was extremely high. • Basic health service coverage was estimated at 25%, with huge inequalities between urban and rural areas, and between genders. • There was just one doctor for every 200,000 of the population. • Awareness of HIV/ Aids was very low.

19. Health: Progress & Challenges • Health policy, planning and monitoring are all on track. • Immunisation and pharmaceutical distribution targets have been met. • All targets on HIV/ Aids were met. • Southern Sudan still has insufficient trained health workers. • Infant & maternal mortality rates are still high. • Access to service delivery remains limited. Achievements Challenges

20. Infrastructure: Situation in 2005 • Roads were of poor quality and highly mined. • Air was the only way to travel and Juba had the only functioning airport. • Equipment to generate electricity was absent or dilapidated. • Water and sanitation management was absent or poor in urban areas.

21. Infrastructure: Progress & Challenges • 2,000km of roads have been rehabilitated. • Access to aviation has increased: • 5 airstrips have been rehabilitated (Torit, Bor, Aweil, Yambio and Wau) • All State capital airstrips are operational. • Road infrastructure needs remain enormous. • Rail & river transport needs to be developed. • Electricity provision has increased, but is only available in a few urban areas. • Access to urban water & sanitation schemes is still limited. Achievements Challenges

22. Natural Resources and Rural Development: Situation in 2005 • Agriculture, forestry and wildlife all had huge potential, but were under-developed. • Farmers had no access to formal credit, and limited access to markets. • Crop & livestock development was reliant on traditional methods. • Land policy was based on customary laws. • Almost all production was subsistence.

23. Natural Resources & Rural Development: Progress & Challenges • Targets on access to safe water have been met, with 15%-20% of the rural population now having access. • Planning, survey and policy targets are largely on track. • The South is still reliant on food imports from neighbouring countries. • Access to improved production technology and to markets needs to increase. • Animal & crop disease remains a significant problem. Achievements Challenges

24. Public Administration: Situation in 2005 • Southern Sudan had no single administrative or legislative system: • SPLM-liberated areas operated under Civil Authority for New Sudan (CANS) • GoS-held areas operated under Coordinating Council of Southern Sudan (CCSS). • Capacity was extremely weak in both of these systems.

25. Public Administration: Progress & Challenges Achievements Challenges • CCSS and CANS have been unified. • Southern Sudan & State Assemblies are established and functioning • GoSS has established and equipped its ministries and commissions. • Legislative oversight of Government requires strengthening at all levels. • State & County institutional capacity needs remain enormous. • The Public Sector is proving costly, and needs ‘right-sizing’ and ‘re-skilling’.

26. Rule of Law: Situation in 2005 • Southern Sudan was heavily militarised and there was no formal legal system. • The vast majority of litigation was handled by fragmented customary law. • Institutions to uphold laws were weak: • Legal staff were extremely low in number and operating under differing legal frameworks; • The police force was small and fragmented; • The prison system was weak.

27. Rule of Law: Progress & Challenges • The Interim Constitution has been adopted. • Courts & legal staff are in place. • The Southern Sudan Human Rights Commission has been established. • Capacity of legal personnel still needs strengthening. • Organised Forces have received excess SPLA personnel & need downsizing. • The Rule of Law is not fully observed, and community security is a challenge. Achievements Challenges

28. Security: Situation in 2005 • About 20 different armed groups were in operation in the region. • Around 1 million landmines and other remnants of war were estimated to remain in the South. • No Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) process was in place for former combatants.

29. Security: Progress • Peace has prevailed in most parts of Southern Sudan since the CPA was signed. • 59,000 troops from 12 armed groups were integrated into the SPLA & Organised forces. • JIUs were established as per the CPA. • 6,000km of roads were demined. • Implementation of DDR is behind schedule. • 90,000 personnel require demobilisation & reintegration into their communities. Achievements Challenges

30. Social and Humanitarian Affairs: Situation in 2005 • Over 4 million people from the South were displaced, and half a million were refugees. • Social cohesion was heavily affected by conflict. • The rights of women and children were not protected, and gender inequality was significant. • There was no social protection system for vulnerable groups.

31. Social and Humanitarian Affairs: Progress • Over 1.2 million displaced people have returned home through organised and spontaneous means since 2005. • Basic services have been provided to returnee communities. • Emergency assistance needs to be converted into support for recovery & development. • Women empowerment is still a challenge. • Protection needs to be provided to vulnerable groups. Achievements Challenges

32. Lessons learnt from the JAM • The JAM targets were ambitious – they set out a long-term plan, not a three year plan. • Future targets need to be realistic. • They also need to be clearly prioritised. • Financing needs to be more predictable: • GoSS intends to develop better estimates of its revenues (particularly oil) • Donors need to pledge for longer-term timeframes, and disburse in line with their commitments. • __ _______ ____ _______________ _________ ____ ___ ___ _ ____ ____ ____ ___ _ _____ ____ ____ • _____ _______ ____ __ __ ____ _________ • ___ ____ ____ __ __ _______ ___________ • _________ _________ ___ _________ __ ________ • ________ _____ __ __ ____ ___________ • _ _____ __ _______ ______ _________ __ ___ ________ ____________ ___ • _____ ____ __ ________ __ ______ ____ __________ __ ____ ____ _____ ___________

33. Conclusion • Given the vast scale of the challenges we faced in 2005, we have made progress. But we still have significant gaps: • We need to consolidate our gains on the security front by commencing the DDR process and improving community security. • Institutional capacity & service delivery remains a challenge, particularly at State & County level. • Our infrastructure needs remain enormous, and development of our road infrastructure is essential for increased economic activity. • We request our development partners to assist us in this vital time. • _______ ____ ___ ________ ____________ ________ _______ _______ __________ _____ ___ ____ _____ __ ___ __________ __ _____ __ • _______ __ ___ ________ ___ ___________ _______ ______ _ _______ ___ ___ ___ __ ____ ____ ___ _______ _________ ___ ________ _________ ___ _________ ___ _______ ___________ • _ ____ _______ _ ________ ________ ____ ____ __ ___ _ ___ _____ ____________ ___________ ___ ________ ___________ ___ __ ___ ____ ___ ________ • _ _______ ___ ___________ ________ __ ______ __ __ ____ _____ ____

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