Carbon estimation and reporting

1. Carbon estimation and reporting 2018 Northern Research Station FIA Management Team Meeting Brian Walters

2. Staff and Cooperators • Grant Domke (group lead) • Brian Walters • Jim Smith • Mike Nichols • Forest Service cooperators from every FIA region • University cooperators (Minnesota, Vermont, Maine, Michigan, Oregon State, etc.) • Gov’t Agency cooperators (NASA, USGS, etc.)

3. Core Responsibilities • Produce estimates of carbon stocks, stock change, and greenhouse gas emissions in the forest land use sector for international reporting requirements • Conduct research to improve carbon estimation • Individual carbon pools • “Data Fusion” - Combining FIA measurements with auxiliary data (e.g. land cover/land use products, satellite imagery time-series, atmospheric observations, etc.) • Contribute forest carbon sections to NRS-FIA 5-year state reports and other analytical reports (e.g. RPA)

4. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • Stabilize GHG concentrations “at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.” • “…act in the interests of human safety even in the face of scientific uncertainty.” • Entered into force in 1994 • 197 countries have ratified the Convention • US is an Annex 1 Party to the UNFCCC

5. Annual reporting responsibilities • Forest land remaining forest land • Forest ecosystem carbon • Forest fire emissions • Emissions from drained organic soils • Land converted to forest land • Forest ecosystem carbon • Emissions from drained organic soils • Forest land converted to other land uses • Emissions associated with forest land converting to cropland, grassland, settlement, etc. • Harvested wood products

6. GHG Estimation and Reporting • Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990 – 2016 • Chapter 6: Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry • EPA greenhouse gas website • Carbon estimates for the 1990 – 2017 report have been submitted to the EPA and expert review has been completed • More elaborate in-country expert review completed this year • Review team complimentary of new approach in Alaska and incorporating limited remeasurement data in the West • Successfully addressed all recommendations made by expert team during previous in-country review

7. Fourth National Climate AssessmentVolume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States • Released November 23, 2018 • https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ • Organized into chapters on national topics, regional assessments, and responses • Chapter 5: Land Cover and Land-Use Change • Chapter 6: Forests • According to the Columbia Journalism Review there were more than 140 front page stories covering NCA4 • Had a potential reach of 2 billion people

8. Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report • Released on November 23, 2018 • To less fanfare than the NCA4 • Focuses on U.S. and North American carbon cycle processes, stocks, fluxes, and interactions with global-scale carbon budgets and climate change impacts in managed and unmanaged systems • Chapter 9: Forests • Led by our group

9. Pool Research • Spatial modeling of litter and soil carbon stocks on CONUS forest land • Built upon previous work that used P3 data to improve estimation of carbon in litter and soil • 1 km resolution maps • Can be used in future “data fusion” carbon estimations for international reporting • Also useful as input in other modeling environments, such as LANDIS-II landscape change model

10. Data Fusion - FIA Plus Auxiliary Data • Improve the spatial and temporal resolution of change estimates • Can be harmonized with FIA and other georeferenced data (e.g. USDA Natural Resource Inventory) • Provides continuity across the entire reporting period • Vast featurespace for prediction

12. Interior Alaska Managed Forest Land Carbon Estimation • The GHG inventory this year included estimates for all managed forest land in Alaska • Previous inventories only included coastal Alaska where FIA had measurements

13. Interior Alaska Managed Forest Land Carbon Estimation • The GHG inventory this year included estimates for all managed forest land in Alaska • Previous inventories only included coastal Alaska where FIA had measurements • Measurements have begun in interior Alaska

14. Interior Alaska Managed Forest Land Carbon Estimation • The GHG inventory this year included estimates for all managed forest land in Alaska • Previous inventories only included coastal Alaska where FIA had measurements • Measurements have begun in interior Alaska • We can use the network of measured and soon-to-be measured plots to estimate forest ecosystem carbon

15. Interior Alaska Managed Forest Land Carbon Estimation • Data Fusion Approach • FIA measurements • FIA hexagons • Ancillary data • MODIS-derived NDVI time series • Climate data • Disturbance time series • Forest type groups • Vegetation canopy cover • Permafrost presence • NLCD • IPCC good practice guidance defaults • Result is carbon stocks and flux for each hexagon by year 1990 – 2017

16. Questions/Comments • Grant Domke • gmdomke@fs.fed.us • Brian Walters • bfwalters@fs.fed.us

17. Timber product output 2018 Northern Research Station FIA Management Team Meeting Brian Walters

18. Staff and Cooperators • Ron Piva • Dave Haugen • Brian Walters • Mitch Slater • State cooperators • TPO teams at SRS and University of Montana

19. Core Responsibilities • Conduct surveys of primary wood-using mills to assess state timber industries • Publish reports and data tables from surveys • Contribute TPO sections to NRS-FIA 5-year state reports and other analytical reports (e.g. RPA)

20. Current Reporting Status • Published in the last year • Minnesota 2014 • Michigan 2014 • Nebraska 2014 • South Dakota 2014 • 2015/16 reports due to be published in the next year • Kansas • Missouri • Michigan • Illinois • Current data processing • 2017:Minnesota, Iowa, West Virginia, Massachusetts • Next year’s data collection • Everyone!

21. Scannable Form

22. Scannable Form • Deployed in 2017 for 2016 data collection • Many returned in an unscannable state • On hold for now • Only one form to be used for annual sampling, this will not be that form • Hopefully we will be able to revisit scannable forms in the future • Better questions and clearer answer boxes to avoid incomplete and/or messy forms • SRS is interested too

23. NRS Data Collection - Iowa • Previous mill survey done in 2005 • 104 mills received questionnaires • 28% response rate on initial mailing • 66% response rate after calling, emailing, etc. with mills

24. NRS Data Collection – West Virginia • Previous mill survey done in 2007 • Similar results to Iowa data collection, but with worse response rate • 116 active mills in 2007 • 55 of those are closed • Difficulty in getting large mills to respond to the questionnaire and phone calls

25. National TPO • National TPO lead: • John Coulston with the Southern Research Station at Virginia Tech • Annual sampling beginning 2019 • Sampling design research published in Forest Science • Both NRS and SRS are doing annual samples in all states

26. NRS Annual Sample • We have been in contact with state partners about methods and expectations • Mill lists have been compiled • Some minor work remains on determining size of some mills • Run R scripts to do the sample selection for each state • Early in 2019 we will mail a letter to every mill on our lists alerting them to the new way we will be sampling • 2019 data collection will begin • Coordinate with state partners about data collection • Postcard mailed to sample mills • Questionnaire mailed • Follow up postcard • Calls/emails/visits

27. Questions/Comments • Grant Domke • gmdomke@fs.fed.us • Ron Piva • rpiva@fs.fed.us • Brian Walters • bfwalters@fs.fed.us