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Bell Ringer. What is the Business Cycle?. The Business Cycle. Recurrent swings in Real GDP Five Phases: Peak – temporary high of real GDP Contraction – decline in real GDP Decline for 2 consecutive quarters (6 months) economy in a recession
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Bell Ringer • What is the Business Cycle?
The Business Cycle • Recurrent swings in Real GDP • Five Phases: • Peak – temporary high of real GDP • Contraction – decline in real GDP • Decline for 2 consecutive quarters (6 months) economy in a recession • Trough – low point of real GDP, just before it swings upward • Recovery– the period where real GDP is rising • Expansion – increases in real GDP beyond the recovery
Economics Indicators • Real GDP • Measures the output of all final goods and services produced in the US in a given time period • Real GDP = (nominal GDP/Price Index) x100 • Inflation rate • Measures how rapidly the overall price level it changing in the US economy. • Inflation Rate = ((CPI lateryear - CPI earlieryear)/ CPI earlier year) x 100 • Unemployment rate • Measures the percentage of the US labor force that wishes to work, but are currently without jobs. • Unemployment Rate = unemployed persons/civilian labor force
Unemployment Rate • Unemployment rate – the percentage of the civilian workforce that is unemployed Unemployment rate = • Employment rate – the percentage of the non-institutional adult civilian population that is employed • Unemployed – 16 years or older and actively looking for a job. Unemployed Persons Civilian Labor Force
Unemployment Rate • Three Types of Unemployment: • Frictional • Temporary unemployment that occurs from a normal job search • Structural • Unemployment caused by changes in technology and the need for workers with different skills • Cyclical • Unemployment caused by an economic downturn
Inflation Rate • Inflation is an increase in the average price of goods • Inflation rate is the percentage change in price levels from one time to another, usually month to month or year to year. • Demand-pull – inflation that occurs when demand for goods causes prices to rise • Cost-push – inflation that occurs when increases in the cost of inputs raises the prices of the final good or service.
Inflation Rate • Effects of Inflation • Individuals on a Fixed Income • Income doesn’t change while prices do • Saving • Interest rate on accounts maybe less than inflation, causing money to devalue • Past decisions • Companies make decisions based on economic information • Hedging against Inflation • Attempts to lessen the affects of inflation • Deflation – a decrease in the price level • Major problem – when prices fall, they do not fall consistently for all goods and services
Real GDP • GDP – The market value of final goods and services produced in the United States in a year. • GDP = C + I + G + NX • Real GDP – accounts for changes in quantity of goods and services, not changes in the prices of goods and services • Real GDP = (nominal GDP/Price Index) x100
Business Cycle and Economic Indicators • Economic Indicators inform us of where the economy is on the Business Cycle • Leading indicator – proceeds the event • Tend to be quoted most often in news • stock prices, money supply, consumer expectations, average weekly hours worked • Coincident indicator – during the event • Lagging indicator – after the event
What Causes the Business Cycle? • Money Supply (Monetary Policy) • Business Investment • Government Spending • Residential Construction • Politics (Fiscal Policy) • Innovation • Supply Shocks
Bell Ringer • In which phase of the business cycle do you think the U.S. economy is currently in?
Economic Growth • Absolute Real Economic Growth • An increase in real GDP from one period to the next • real GDP for 2011 = $13,299.1 billion • real GDP for 2012 = $13,593.2 billion • What was the absolute real economic growth between 2011 and 2012? • Per capita real economic Growth • An increase from one period to the next in per capita real GDP
Rule of 72 • 72 / % Growth • Used to calculate how often our standard of living will double
Real Growth and the PPF • What is the PPF? • What causes the PPF to shift outward? • Pgs. 331 – 334 • Natural Resources • Labor • Capital • Human Capital • Technological Advances • Incentives
Cost of Growth • What are some of the possible negatives associated with economic growth? • Cost of Economic Growth • Economics Growth v. Future Availability of Resources
Economics Indicators • Economics Forecasters, Inc. • You will learn more about the three main macroeconomic indicators • Real GDP • Inflation Rate (Change in CPI) • Unemployment Rate • You and your group will create a report about the current economic conditions in the US.
Bell Ringer • What does your indicator tell you about the current state of the economy?
Economics Indicators • Economics Forecasters, Inc. • You will learn more about the three main macroeconomic indicators • Real GDP • Inflation Rate (Change in CPI) • Unemployment Rate • You and your group will create a report about the current economic conditions in the US. • It should contain a business cycle graph (on the back) with a mark where your group believes