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TURBULENCE BASICS FORECASTING TOOLS RECENT CASE STUDIES TODAY’S TURBULENCE

TURBULENCE BASICS FORECASTING TOOLS RECENT CASE STUDIES TODAY’S TURBULENCE. TURBULENCE: “NOT” A FUNCTION OF STRENGTH OF JET STREAM, BUT RATHER A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEARS ASSOCIATED. TURBULENCE: LOOKING AT LAYER SPEED SHEARS AND

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TURBULENCE BASICS FORECASTING TOOLS RECENT CASE STUDIES TODAY’S TURBULENCE

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  1. TURBULENCE BASICS • FORECASTING TOOLS • RECENT CASE STUDIES • TODAY’S TURBULENCE

  2. TURBULENCE: “NOT” A FUNCTION OF STRENGTH OF JET STREAM, BUT RATHER A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEARS ASSOCIATED.

  3. TURBULENCE: LOOKING AT LAYER SPEED SHEARS AND TRYING TO BETTER QUANTIFY THE FORECAST MODELS.

  4. ABUNDANT FCST PRODUCTS AVAILABLE

  5. EXAMPLE 1) MODERATE-STRONG JET – MINIMAL TURB (NOVEMBER 2009) UPPER JET 100-130KT COVERED MANY ALTITUDES W/ LITTLE IN WAY OF LAYER SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

  6. FL370 ~100KT GENERALLY SMOOTH FLIGHT ALTITUDES KORD SOUNDING 0000Z INDICATING FAIRLY UNIFORM WINDS FL370 DOWN TO FL180 FL180 ~95KT

  7. STILL NEED TO USE FORECAST MODELS WITH CAUTION… EXAMPLE 2) POORLY FORECAST JETSTREAM WHICH WAS INDUCED BY THUNDERSTORM UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW

  8. May 23, 2011 • Initially weak jet stream pattern – little turbulence expectations. • Forecast models of Jet and Turb were well under-forecast. • An area of thunderstorms Missouri and S. ILL and associated upper outflow induced a strongly sheared jet over IL-MI. • Details: forecast models predicted ~70kt jet FL340-FL360 over IL-IND-MICH, while in actuality ~100-115kt jet developed. • By early-mid afternoon a significant turbulence situation developed with frequent MOD TURB FL270-FL400 and local SEVERE FL270-FL320.

  9. 6 HOUR FORECAST (18Z) … 250MB WINDS

  10. 12 HOUR FORECAST (00Z) … 250MB WINDS

  11. SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND VISIBLE SATELLITE CLUES….

  12. Satellite Clues

  13. ACTUAL JET LEVEL WINDS 2100-0000Z AT FL330-FL360 @ 100-115KT

  14. ACTUAL VS. MODEL COMPARISON. 2100-0000Z 12HR FCST.. VALID 0000Z

  15. SEVERE TURB @ ~FL290 VCNTY DBQ

  16. MOD-SEV FL270-FL320 VCNTY MSN

  17. EXAMPLE 3) WELL MODELED STRONGLY SHEARED JET NORTH OF STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. SEPTEMBER 5, 2011 ...SEVERAL SEVERE REPORTS OVER NORTH IND-SOUTH MICH.

  18. EXAMPLE 3) WELL MODELED STRONGLY SHEARED JET NORTH OF STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. SEPTEMBER 5, 2011 ...SEVERAL SEVERE TURB REPORTS OVER NORTH IND-SOUTH MICH.

  19. SYNOPTIC PATTERN: STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH GREAT LAKES AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM “LEE”

  20. 500MB PATTERN

  21. 500MB PATTERNW/ 250MB OVERLAY

  22. NORROW THE SHEAR ZONE: 400MB WINDS and 300MB WINDS

  23. RESULTANT BULK SHEAR: BETWEEN 400MB AND 300MB

  24. SATELLITE CLUES….

  25. SEV TURB FL285-290 VCNTY GIJ (north of SBN)

  26. 31,700’ NUMEROUS AC MOD SEVERE TURB FL250-FL330 VCNTY GIJ (north of SBN) 26,300’

  27. TODAY’S TURBULENCE ? SATELLITE: http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv AMDAR: http://amdar.noaa.gov/java/ AIRMETS: http://aviationweather.gov/products/gairmet/ FORECAST GUIDANCE: AWC ELROD: http://aviationweather.gov/exp/ellrod/ruc/ AWC GTG: http://aviationweather.gov/adds/turbulence/turb_nav.php

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