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Transitioning CMAQ for NWS Operational AQ Forecasting

This document discusses the transition of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for National Weather Service (NWS) operational air quality forecasting. It details the operational requirements influenced by the NCEP meteorological model, forecasts, accuracy, emission inventory updates, and various configurations for different forecasting domains. The report emphasizes robustness, verification processes, and real-time evaluation metrics, making this transition vital for accurate ozone forecasting in the Eastern US.

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Transitioning CMAQ for NWS Operational AQ Forecasting

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  1. Transitioning CMAQ for NWS Operational AQ Forecasting Jeff McQueen*, Pius Lee*, Marina Tsildulko*, G. DiMego*, B. Katz* R. Mathur,T. Otte, J. Pleim, J. Young, G. Pouliout, D. Wong, K. Schere(NOAA/ARL/ASMD & EPA) P. Davidson(NWS/OST) *NOAA/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

  2. Operational Requirements • Driven by NCEP Operational Meteorological Model (Eta-12) • I/O Formats: • Only machine binary, GRIB and BUFR, disk space limitations • Time Requirement: • 12 Z 48 hour forecast available by 17:25 Z (1:25 pm EDT) • 06 Z 48 hour forecast available by 13:00 Z ( 9 am EDT) • 65 IBM Power 4 procs available • 12 Z start after Eta is complete (14:30 Z) • Robustness: • Thoroughly tested & evaluated with retrospective and real-time experimental runs • Available to NWS Gateway, NDGD: 99% reliability, 24x7 NCEP support • Accuracy: 90% exceedence hit rate

  3. Air Quality Forecasting Configuration for Operational Implementation • NE Domain: 12 km 166x142x22 top at 100 mb • 48 hour forecasts of ozone (O3) : 06 and 12 UTC runs • Eta-Post corrections to Land-Use, vertical temperature interp • Updated emissions inventories: • Project 2002 point and area source inventories for 2004 • Updated Mobile Emissions using MOBILE6 inventory • Simplified Temperature dependency on mobile emissions • Use of GFS ozone for upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above 6 km • “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below • 6 hour cycling • Minimum Kz in CMAQ PBL set over rural areas to increase mixing and help reduce O3 overprediction at night (initiated on 7/22/04) • Real-time Verification • BUFR O3 and CMAQ output evaluated with VSDB/FVS system

  4. Air Quality ForecastingExperimental Expanded Domain Configuration • Eastern US : 48 hour forecasts of ozone (O3) : 06 and 12 UTC runs • 3x expanded domain (East of Rockies, 268x259x22) run in parallel • Minimum Kz mixing • Transformed grid to reduce interpolation error bet. Eta, emissions processor and CMAQ • Expanded emissions inventories • GFS ozone as upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above 6 km • “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below (Initiated on 8/3/04) • Additional processors (~65) used • 12 z Available by 17:30 UTC

  5. Air Quality ForecastingResearch Aerosol Domain Configuration • Eastern US : 24 hour forecasts of O3 & Aerosols: 12 UTC run only • Same system as operational except • 3x expanded domain (East of Rockies) run • Began July 16, 12z w/ 24 hr cycling • Expanded emissions inventories • GFS ozone as upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above top 6 km • “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below • 33 processors on Development Machine (less (less reliability, 8x5) • Available by 21 UTC

  6. 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 Forecast: eta premaq cmaq 6h GRIB output to TOC 48h soil ozone 48h 6h 6h 48h 48h 6h 6h 20 August 2003: NCO parallel implemented 6h Cycling 48h

  7. Land-use Coupling to Eta With wrong land-use AIRNOW Ozone obs With correct land-use

  8. Eta-Post Temperature Interpolation Error

  9. Current Physics Coupling w/ NCEP Eta-12

  10. Air Quality Forecasting2004 User Access • NE Domain (1x, O3) : • Public: NDGD and TOC ftp server • Surface ozone predictions • State Forecasters: HPC web site • Sfc O3 & met plots • Daily (2pm) conference calls • HPC forecasters trained • Focus group: EMC web site • Expanded met plots (pbl hgt, sw rad, ventilation index….) • Sfc & upper level O3 and precurser plots (NOx, NOy,CO,SO2) • ICARRT web page: sfc & UL ozone • Experimental Domain (3x, O3): • Focus group only: EMC Web page

  11. Products Predicted Sfc Ozone (1, 8h, max) Eta PB L hgt Eta cloud cover

  12. Air Quality Forecasting2004 Verification (1x and 3x) • NCEP EMC FVS System : • 1 and 8 hour O3 averages • RMSE, Bias, STD, correlation coefficients Time series by fhr and day, subregion • using EPA AIRNOW O3 network began 7/12/04 • FHO contingency exceedence stats (POD, FAR, threat scores) • Began 8/1/04 • NWS/MDL • Daily Spatial obs vs predicted exceedence maps • Contingency exceedence stats since June 1 • NOAA/OAR/EPA • Retrospective evaluations (8/12-19, 2003) • RT:Similar Stats except stations averaged over CMAQ grid points • ICARRT web page: sfc & UL ozone timeseries vs observations

  13. Runs RMSE (ppb) MAGE MNGE MNB MFB MB NMB NME R NO GFS 15.37 11.81 21.85 11.76 7.96 4.88 8.15 19.71 0.64 W/ GFS 16.21 12.59 23.45 14.00 9.75 6.10 10.17 21.00 0.62 W/ GFS Mobile6 New pt/area 14.50 Final 2004 11.19 21.00 11.91 8.36 4.69 7.83 18.68 0.64 LU_flawd (2003 config) 22.84 2003 16.0 26.76 30.88 0.62 LU correct 16.42 7.45 12.43 21.04 0.63 NE DOMAIN Retrospective EvaluationMaximum 1 Hr ozone Errors (Aug.12-19,2003)

  14. Eta Real-Time VerificationAugust 2004 Temperature Downward SW

  15. Real-Time VerificationEMC FVS time-series binned by FHR Bias RMSE

  16. Real-Time VerificationEMC FVS 36 h forecast time-series by day RMSE Bias

  17. Real-Time VerificationEMC FVS forecast by sub-region BIAS 1x vs 3x NE, SE US BIAS 1x vs 3x E. Canada, APL US

  18. Real-Time VerificationNWS MDL EvaluationPredicted vs Obs Exceedence

  19. Summary • NCEP Currently running 3 systems: • Operational NE (1x) • Experimental (3x) • Research Aerosols (3x) • Retrospective and real-time results show improvements from 2003: • Mean daytime bias reduced from ~17 to 5 ppb • Mean daytime rmse reduced from 22.8 to 14.5 ppb • However, still general overprediction in day, poorer performance at night

  20. FY05 Planned NCEP Runs • Production (2x/day to 48 hrs) • Operational:Eastern U.S.(3x) Eta CMAQ-Ozone pending evaluation • Experimental:CONUS Eta/WRF CMAQ • Improved Coupling w/ Radiation •  Development/Research • Eastern U.S. CMAQ w/WRF coupling • Eastern U.S. retrospective aerosol runs

  21. BACKUPS

  22. NE DOMAIN Retros. Evaluation1 Hr Avg ozone Errors (8/12-19, 2003) RMSE Mean Bias

  23. ICARRT Evaluation

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