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SVW in Operational Weather Forecasting

SVW in Operational Weather Forecasting. Capt Caroline Bower Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Area of Responsibility. 180 o. 140 o. Tokyo. CPHC. 33%. 11%. NHC. New Delhi. 8%. 17%. Australia. Nadi, Fiji. La Reunion. 11%. 13%. 7%. Global Coverage. METWATCH.

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SVW in Operational Weather Forecasting

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  1. SVW in Operational Weather Forecasting Capt Caroline Bower Joint Typhoon Warning Center

  2. Area of Responsibility 180o 140o Tokyo CPHC 33% 11% NHC New Delhi 8% 17% Australia Nadi, Fiji La Reunion 11% 13% 7%

  3. Global Coverage

  4. METWATCH • QuikSCAT is the primary data source for verifying the presence of closed cyclonic circulations • Used to identify open/easterly waves, westerly wind bursts, surface convergence and troughing • Used to identify directional flow (i.e., southwesterly monsoon)

  5. Development • Used to assess tropical disturbance classification • Poor, Fair, Good (TCFA) • First warning

  6. TC Analysis • Assess TC wind distribution • Distribution of winds • Critical wind radii • Max wind speed reported • Position • Multiple impacts • Warning position and wind distribution • Bogus message (dotcom file) used to prime atmospheric models (i.e., NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN)

  7. Usage • Assess image • Proximity to land • Rain flags (compare to vis/IR imagery) • Identify circulation center • Identify area of 35-knot winds • Measure distance to outer 35-knot wind vector in each quadrant • Assess distribution of 50-knot winds, measure radii • Assess overall symmetry of wind distribution, potential complicating factors (i.e., gradient compression)

  8. Usage • All available data incorporated into composite fix (warning position)

  9. Limitations • Data missing or rain flagged where it is most important • Sensor unable to accurately assess inner core winds • Data latency often on the order of several hours • Given current architecture, cannot use WindSat, TMI, SSM/I, SSMI/S (storm-centered displays) to METWATCH

  10. Questions? Capt Caroline Bower JTWC 808 474-3946 e-mail: caroline.bower@navy.mil

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