Download
1 / 5
50 likes | 150 Vues
This project involves analyzing annual changes in global environmental services like carbon, crops, livestock, timber, and water. Using various metrics and models, we aim to assess the impact and value of these services over the past decade. The study will evaluate the relevance and significance of these systems on a global scale, focusing on key indicators such as supply, service, and value. The workplan includes data analysis, validation, and compiling results into figures for publication.
E N D
Figures • Can show annual change: 3 panels, 1 for % change in global sum of supply relative to 1996; 1 for service; 1 for value as possible for full set of services • Can show different metrics, and they show different patterns: 3 panels for 3 continents, change over the decade for supply, service, value; 2 panels for globe, timber change over decade for service and value • Can show the system is relevant: 5(?) panels, carbon (service or value?) globally with change in our decade vs. past decade, indicating significance; crops (service or value?) globally with 1 yr % change relative to decade average (1996-2005); livestock protein vs. Human need; timber supply minus service, then compared to degradation; water (maybe not a map?)
To do • Hydropower • Check price data (S) • Check on dams already incorporated into LPJ, find out how done and if matches with actual watersheds-use this if possible!! (P) • If can’t use LPJ with dams, Complete watersheds and validate (S) • Correct LPJ water yield estimates for urban consumptive use, combine that with ag extracted yield from LPJ (S, P) (we need both full yield and yield-irrigation) • Do usability check (S) • Crops • Correlate FAO and LPJ, if good, use FAO for maps (P) • If we use 13 crops, check IFPRI (S-Danny) • Do fitness for use and figure, can we pick up an extreme year somewhere on the globe?(P) • Livestock • Do usability analyses and figure (S-Danny and Bob) • Timber • Do usability analyses and figure (convert carbon to roundwood, compare to degradation rates). Can we detect unsustainable forestry at the national scale? (P) • Carbon • -Do usability analyses, compare annual change rates to LPJ change rates (P). Is our modeling giving us comparable signal to observations (same interannual variability)? • Run carbon valuation (S) • Compile all to figures (S-danny)
Workplan • End of March – carbon yearly data to Stanford • May – conference call to check in on coordinated work • June – all supply info to Stanford for service/value calcs • Mid-August-all data to Danny • Sept – conference call to talk about completed figures, paper • Dec – submit paper
Paper Outline • Introduction: • What’s needed for GEO BON, modeling and national stats as one component • For multiple services and metrics, see where in space, and how changes over time. (would we include table of metrics here for extensive list? Then say we’re did subset?) • One example of how this can be done, with one set of models; why this set of services? • Compare to what TEEB said was possible • Methods: • LPJml • FAO • InVEST • Any additional methods for determining utility • Results: • Figs 1 and 2 • Discussion • Fig 3 and implications and uses • Outstanding needs – major data issues (and revisit table saying further to go for more services?). Be clear on how this could be done and that it would fill needs for both GOE/GEOSS and CBD reporting
