Strategic Decision Tree for Delta Export: Evaluating Costs and Fish Recovery Options
This decision tree framework analyzes strategic long-term options for Delta export decisions. It focuses on evaluating the costs associated with the Peripheral Canal and through-Delta exports, while considering factors such as fish recovery, water quality, and the impact of climate change. Key scenarios include dual facility costs, export reductions, and considerations of ending all exports. The analysis aims to provide a comprehensive view of potential trade-offs and their implications on water management and ecosystem recovery.
Strategic Decision Tree for Delta Export: Evaluating Costs and Fish Recovery Options
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Presentation Transcript
Decision Tree for Strategic Long-Term Delta Export Decision Initial Decision Peripheral canal cost Fish recover No recovery Peripheral canal cost + reduced export costs Peripheral Canal Peripheral canal cost + through-Delta cost Fish recover “Dual Facility” Peripheral canal cost + through-Delta cost + reduced export costs No recovery End water exports Continue through-Delta exports Cost of ending all exports Through-Delta cost + reduced export costs + water quality costs Never fails Range of sea level rise End water exports Through-Delta cost + discounted failure & ending export costs Time to major failure PeripheralCanal Fish Recovery Through-Delta cost + discounted failure & peripheral canal costs Continue through- Delta exports No recovery Follow-up decision Through-Delta cost + discounted failure, peripheral canal& reduced export costs Through-Delta Cost + discountedpresent & future failure and repaircosts, reduced export costs and water quality costs Chance point
