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Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004

Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004. Nino3.4 Index (170W-120W, 5S-5N). Regression analysis -using HadGEMs, MPI-ESMs, and GFDL-ESMs-. Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM). Tropical Region Period: 1870-2004. Surface Temperature. D(0)JF(+1). MAM(+1). JJA(+1).

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Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004

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  1. Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004 Nino3.4 Index (170W-120W, 5S-5N)

  2. Regression analysis-using HadGEMs, MPI-ESMs, and GFDL-ESMs-

  3. Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM) Tropical Region Period: 1870-2004 Surface Temperature D(0)JF(+1) MAM(+1) JJA(+1)

  4. Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM) Tropical Region Period: 1870-2004 Surface Temperature D(0)JF(+1) MAM(+1) JJA(+1)

  5. Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL) Tropical Region Period: 1870-2004 Surface Temperature D(0)JF(+1) MAM(+1) JJA(+1)

  6. Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM) Tropical Region Period: 1870-2004 Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1) D(0)JF(+1) MAM(+1) JJA(+1)

  7. Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM) Tropical Region Period: 1870-2004 Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1) D(0)JF(+1) MAM(+1) JJA(+1)

  8. Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL) Tropical Region Period: 1870-2004 Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1) D(0)JF(+1) MAM(+1) JJA(+1)

  9. East Asia (90E-160E, 10N-60N) Period: 1870-2004 Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM) Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1) D(0)JF(+1) JJA(+1) MAM(+1)

  10. East Asia (90E-160E, 10N-60N) Period: 1870-2004 Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM) Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1) D(0)JF(+1) JJA(+1) MAM(+1)

  11. East Asia (90E-160E, 10N-60N) Period: 1870-2004 Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL) Precipitation(mmday-1)/ Surface Wind (ms-1) D(0)JF(+1) JJA(+1) MAM(+1)

  12. Conclusions • Among all models, MPI’s models and GFDL’s models relatively well reproduce the ENSO signals just like in the observations in their historical run. • It has shown in the observational reanalysis that the El Nino could cause stronger anticyclone over the western north Pacific which will ultimately lead to more precipitation over the East Asia in the next summer. • Especially, GFDL’s models relatively well reproduce the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon relationship. • However, even the models known as good performances didn’t properly reproduce the ENSO-induced variability of the East Asia Summer Monsoon. • Hence, there’s still much to be examined and improved for those relationship.

  13. East Asia (90E-160E, 10N-60N) Period: 1870-2004 Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (NOAA-GFDL) Surface Temperature D(0)JF(+1) JJA(+1) MAM(+1)

  14. East Asia (90E-160E, 10N-60N) Period: 1870-2004 Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (HadGEM) Surface Temperature D(0)JF(+1) JJA(+1) MAM(+1)

  15. East Asia (90E-160E, 10N-60N) Period: 1870-2004 Regressed onto OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM) Surface Temperature D(0)JF(+1) JJA(+1) MAM(+1)

  16. Composite analysis

  17. Data: HadISST Period: 1870-2004 Nino3.4 Index (170W-120W, 5S-5N) 1979-2004

  18. Composite based on OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM) Next Summer (JJA) Precipitation(mmday-1)/Surface Wind (ms-1)

  19. Composite based on OBS Nino3.4 Index (MPI-ESM) Next Summer (JJA) Surface Temperature

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