PRESENTATION ON RABI REVIEW AND KHARIF PROSPECTS

1. NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE FOR KHARIF CAMPAIGN 2010 PRESENTATION ON RABI REVIEW AND KHARIF PROSPECTS Gurbachan Singh Agriculture Commissioner Ministry of Agriculture Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi Email : ag.comm@nic.in

2. Rabi Review • Kharif Prospects • Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward

3. Kharif 2009 at a Glance : Abnormal Southwest Monsoon • 4.17 m ha less coverage in rice • More area under sorghum and maize • 0.61 m ha more coverage under pulses • 0.60 m ha less coverage in Oilseeds • Kharif rice production less by 12.04 m t • 0.48 m t less pulses • More area coverage in cotton 10.3 m ha compared to 9.40 m ha last year • Oilseeds production 16.19 m t against 17.81 m t in 2008-09 Overall Kharif foodgrain production less by 18.03 m t compared to 2008-09

4. Rabi Scenario 2009-10 • Strategy worked out to compensate kharif loss in Rabi • Late rains (end of kharif season): Rabi prospects brightened with early sowing of oilseeds, pulses and rainfed wheat • 102.3% area coverage compared to normal area under Rabi • 117.3% area under pulses as compared to normal • Less coverage under oilseeds mainly due to less coverage of mustard in Rajasthan

5. Overall about 2.2 lakh ha more coverage compared to last year • Good timely rains in M.P., U.P. and some other States : M.P. and U.P. may harvest record wheat production. • No major pest menace, bright sunshine and continued prolonged moderate winter temperatures will contribute for enhanced productivity. • No significant frost damage on winter crops in north-west India Record wheat production is expected during 2009-10

6. Rabi Area Coverage as on 12.03.2010 (in Lakh ha)

7. (Million tons) Second Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains Source : DAC

8. Second Advance Estimates of Production of other Crops Source : DAC

9. ..? • Super Imposing • Rainfall • Temperature • MSP • Seeds • Fertilizers • Others

10. ..? • Super Imposing • Rainfall • Temperature • MSP • Seeds • Fertilizers • Others

11. Planning for Kharif 2010 Likely Monsoon Scenarios • Below normal like 2009 • Normal • Above normal • Pre-monsoon good showers • Early onset early withdrawal • Late onset, early / late withdrawal • Timely onset – long break – late revival – extended phase • Extended monsoon (End September) • Matching seeds, seedlings, fertilizers, machinery, plant protection, mulching materials etc. (contingency plans)

12. Hints for Productivity Enhancement : Advance Planning • In situ / ex situ rain water conservation • Availability of seed, fertilizers (P and K needed at sowing), plant protection equipments and pesticides etc. • Promotion of yield enhancing practices • SRI • Quality Seeds / Hybrids • Conservation / Precision Agriculture • Integrated Nutrient, Water and Pest Management Strategies • Water, Fodder and Feed Availability for Animals

13. All India Position of Requirement And Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010

14. All India Position of Requirement and Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010

15. Issues Declining levels of soil organic matter Widening N: P : K Ratio Micro-nutrient deficiencies Declining response in terms of grains / kg fertilizer Heavy metal pollution Low nutrient use efficiency Strategies Site Specific Nutrient Management : Soil testing labs and soil health cards Fertilizer use as per ICAR /SAU’s Maps Integrated Nutrient Management Conservation Agriculture Practices NBS: Balanced Nutrition Issues and Strategies Related to Soil Health Management

16. Current status of nutrient use efficiency

17. Measures to increase nutrient use efficiency

18. Area under important pulse crops and major pulse producing States Current Production : 14.7 m t By 2020 : 22-24 m t Productivity : : 659 kg / ha Import 3-4 m t / year Prices quite high Other countries 1700-2000 kg/ha

19. Pulses production : Constraints & Strategies

20. States with productivity less than national average Source : Paper circulated during Chief Ministers Conference on 6.2.2010

21. CAGR Yield Analysis of Major Crops – Rice Note:* 4th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE 2006-07); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR Green: States showing more than target CAGR

22. Pulses Note:* 4th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE 2006-07); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR: Green: States showing more than target CAGR

23. Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 1. High potential low productivity areas (Eastern U.P., Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh) - Extending Green Revolution to ER – 400 crores 2. Sustaining productivity in high productivity zones (Punjab, Haryana, Western U.P.) 3. Improving productivity in Coastal States - Multiple use of resources for mixed farming - Rain water harvesting / ground water recharge - DHORUV Technology

24. Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 4.ENHANCING RAIN WATER UTILIZATION (currently 29% is utilized) • India largest ground water user in the world • Exploiting 230 cubic kilometers of groundwater every year (1/4th of global total) • GW supports 60% irrigation and 80% rural and urban water supply • 29% of ground water blocks are semi-critical, critical and over exploited • By 2025, an estimated 60% of GW blocks will be in a critical situation • Country receives average annual rainfall of about 1 meter • Hardly 29% of rainfall utilized. Can it be increased to 40, 50, 60 ??? • In – situ / ex – situ conservation / Ground water recharge • Crop diversification fromhigh to low water demanding crops

25. Rain water Harvest : The Best Option

26. Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 5. Surplus food from small farm holdings through multienterprize agriculture • Nearly 50% farmers cultivate less than one hectare • Integrated farming system approach • Regular income and employment • A way to organic farming • Rs. 300 – 400 net income / day from one ha holding • A way to coup up with predicted climate change • Nutritional security

27. Multi enterprise Model

28. Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 6. Soil and water conservation strategy for hilly and foot hill zones 7. Soil health and water quality issues vis-à-vis human and animal health 8. Bridging yield gaps between frontline demonstrations and district average yields 9. Area expansion through the reclamation of nearly 120 m ha waste lands : salt affected, acidic, eroded, ravines etc (dovetailing of Central Schemes like NREGA, RKVY, NHM etc.)

29. Saline Waterlogged Soils Arsenic Toxicity Flouride Toxicity

30. Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 10 Couping-up strategies for predicted climate change : droughts, floods, heat and cold waves, frost etc 11. Conversion of waste into wealth : effective utilization of agricultural residues, waste water, use of industrial effluents 12. Remote sensing, GIS, GPS and Satellite techniques in assessment, implementation and monitoring of agricultural systems : Area coverage, crop condition and natural resources 13. Alternative livelihood opportunities in risk prone areas / alternative sources of food

31. Cold Wave of 2002-03 : Experience at Dehradun

32. Mango damaged by cold wave

33. ( a )

34. ( b ) Cold wave damaged crops of (a) tomato and (b) potato

35. Heat wave of March, 2004

37. Prosopis juliflora pods: An alternate source of human food and animal feed Alternate food, fodder and energy sources in dry areas

38. Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 14. Effective working together mechanisms between research, development and policy at the district / block levels to ensure : • Farmers participatory seed production (KVK’s, SAUs, Agriculture Departments, NGO’s Private Sector etc. at the district / block level ) • Revisiting productivity of Central and State owned farms • Weather based forewarning advisories at the district level 15. Food Saved is Food Produced (post harvest and storage losses)

39. THE MESSAGE : Harvest andStore Rain water for Present and Future Generations

40. THE MESSAGE : Harvest andStore Rain water for Present and Future Generations

41. THANK YOU