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The East-West Pendulum Revisited: Insights on Asian and Emerging Market Trends

In "The East-West Pendulum Revisited," Robert Lloyd George provides a comprehensive analysis of the changing dynamics in Asian and emerging markets as of January 2005. This report explores China's economic growth from 1990 to 2005, its global manufacturing impact, and investment opportunities in Australian mining, Brazilian iron ore, and Asian real estate. The piece emphasizes the importance of the Asian consumer, potential inflation or deflation paths, and highlights key regions such as Hong Kong, India, and the emerging REITs market.

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The East-West Pendulum Revisited: Insights on Asian and Emerging Market Trends

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  1. LLOYD GEORGE MANAGEMENTThe East-West Pendulum RevisitedThe Outlook for Asian and Emerging MarketsRobert Lloyd George January 2005

  2. The East-West Pendulum

  3. The East-West Pendulum Updated • CHINA 2005 vs CHINA 1990 GNP/Trade/Per Capita Income/Stock Market • CHINA’s Impact on the World Manufacturing, Exports, Deflation/Inflation, Commodities • CHINA Investment opportunities and Risks

  4. Indirect Investment in China • Australian mining shares • Brazil iron ore/ Chilean copper • Hong Kong Real Estate • Japanese Machine Tools • Travel and Tourism (HK, Thailand, Malaysia)

  5. CHINA’s Impact on the World (like JAPAN 1980s) 2005-2010 • Deflation or Inflation? • Chinese (like Japanese), buying Art treasures and property • CNOOC’s bid for UNOCAL and - LENOVO/IBM important pointers for the future

  6. Investment Outlook 2005 • US dollar recovery • Liquidity Squeeze • Steady growth in Asian economies • The key is the Asian Consumer (China, India)

  7. REITS - a new Asian Asset Class • US: and Australian / examples in past 20 years - • Japan, Singapore • Hong Kong • Cashflow - High Dividend Yield • Asian preference for property ownership

  8. Lloyd George Management • US$5.5 Billion Assets Under Management • Largest Independent Investment “Boutique” in Asia • Founded 1992 - our vision is that CHINA and INDIA are 2 key Emerging Markets • Offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Bombay and London • 60 staff (20 investment professionals) worldwide

  9. Investment Philosophy • Conservative, long term, stock-picking • Small cap and Mid cap (Find the “Microsoft of China 2015”) • High ROE, strong balance sheet and committed management with same interests as shareholders • Concentrated Asian Portfolio of 40 stocks - make “bets outside the benchmark”

  10. Natural Resources - Key Investment Theme • “BRIC” - Brazil / Russia / India / China • Food, oil and minerals • Risks are legal, political and corporate governance • Watch the Middle East - where will the oil price be in 2010?

  11. Three Geopolitical Blocs • USA, EU, and Asia • US-DEBT, THE DOLLAR, and “EMPIRE” • EU-EXPANDS FROM 15 To 33 nations (including TURKEY) • ASIA-CHINA/ASEAN FREE TRADE accord, and possible NEW ASIAN CURRENCY BLOC - China is the Regional Leader

  12. China demand as a percentage of world demand

  13. Conclusion • The East West Pendulum has bounced back • Hong Kong still the place to be • LGM a reliable partner for Asian investment

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