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Accuracy and Climate Trends

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Accuracy and Climate Trends

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  1. Economic Value of Climate ScienceBruce Wielicki, NASA Langley Roger Cooke, Resources for the Future David Young, NASA Langley Martin Mlynczak, NASA LangleyCLARREO Science Team Meeting Hampton, VA April 16-18, 2013

  2. Accuracy and Climate Trends Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty is a factor of 3 (IPCC) which = a factor of 9 uncertainty in climate change economic impacts Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty = Cloud Feedback Uncertainty = Low Cloud Feedback = Changes in SW CRF/decade (y-axis of figure) Higher Accuracy Observations = CLARREO reference intercal of CERES = narrowed uncertainty 15 to 20 years earlier High accuracy is critical to more rapid understanding of climate change

  3. Value of Information (VOI) Calculation • Current IPCC factor of 3 uncertainty in climate sensitivity = factor of 32 = factor of 9 uncertainty in economic impacts

  4. VOI Calculation Baseline

  5. VOI Calculation 2205 SCC = $65 T 2055 Switch to Reduced Emissions Current Observing System

  6. VOI Calculation 2205 SCC = $53 T 2035 Switch to Reduced Emissions Improved Accuracy Observing System (2020 launch) Improved accuracy yields savings of $11.7 T in net present value

  7. Value of Information Parameters Run 1000s of Monte Carlo cases with: - Full pdf of climate sensitivity uncertainty in IPCC fit to Roe and Baker (2007) - Gaussian climate natural variability as specified in the CLARREO BAMS article for global mean temperature and SW cloud radiative forcing. Results are the ensemble mean of the 1000s of Monte Carlo Simulations

  8. How Sensitive are Results to Assumptions? • Delaying launch by 10 years reduces benefit by $2.6 T • Each year of delay we lose $260B of benefits

  9. Value of Information Summary • All economic values in Net Present Value (NPV) in 2015 U.S. dollars • Even with the most pessimistic discount rate, the return on investment is large: factors of 15 to 65 (20 to 32% per year return on investment)

  10. Varying Parameter Assumptions

  11. Summary • Presentations at NASA HQ in January, GSICS, CEOS in March • Journal paper submitted March, 2013. Environment, Systems, and Decisions journal. • Freilich's comment: "too many zeros" • Some truth to this comment • Need to add in the costs of mitigation/adaptation • Current results only include savings from climate impact avoidance • Can provide VOI for U.S. instead of world wide benefits: divide values by a factor of 6 for U.S. vs world. • Mitigation costs have even less certainty than impact costs: IPCC estimates vary a factor of >10. Primary issue is unknown schedule of technology breakthroughs in renewable energy. No interagency memo on agreed to mitigation costs. • Will add mitigation costs in next set studies if funded by HQ.

  12. What is a Discount Rate? • Its not inflation • Instead it accounts for how people value financial resources as a function of their perceived utility both now and in the future. • A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush • Future generations will be richer, let them deal with the costs • Investments made today must be compared to alternative ways to invest the same resources

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