Ireland’s Energy Balance

1. Ireland’s Energy Balance Martin Howley Oslo City Group New Delhi 5th – 7th February 2007

2. Overview • Why have an energy balance? • What type of balance – units, layout etc? • Level of detail • Data collection & collation • Balance construction • Industry Disaggregation • Transport Disaggregation

3. Why have an Energy Balance • Supply & demand accounting framework • Validate flows from supply to consumption • Shows several dimensions at once • Inputs, outputs, fuels, sectors… • Check for consistency between top-down and bottom-up • Aggregation of different fuel and energy sources in common energy units • Defines boundaries of the economic sectors • End-use mapping of energy & activities in the sectors • Identify problem areas

4. National Energy Statistical System

5. Transformation Industry Services Transport Final Energy Residential …. …. Financial Services Health Retail Chemicals Textiles Food, Drink & Tobacco Metals Education Space Heating Water Heating Electrical Appliances Lighting Cooking Public Private Freight Air Water Macro Energy Flow Primary Energy Input

6. Energy Flow in 2005

7. What type of Balance • Commodity Balance • Expressed in physical units – eg tonnes, litres etc • Energy Balance • Expressed in common energy units – TJ, GWh, tonnes of oil equivalent (toe), etc • Common energy units allows for the aggregation of energy quantities from different fuels or energy sources • What format? • IEA • Eurostat

8. Old Balance Format

9. Data Collection • Questionnaires to main suppliers • Oil, gas, solid fuels, renewables, electricity generators & suppliers • Data collected in physical units • tonnes, litres, cubic metres, TJ • Collation/aggregation sheets for each fuel or energy type • Results in high level aggregation of energy use

10. Aggregation sheet example

11. Database

12. New Balance Format

13. New Balance Format

14. More detail on fuels

15. More sectoral detail

16. Issues • If possible have more than one data source • top-down and bottom up • Confidentiality is a major issue • Response rates • Statistical differences • More complete transformation output section desirable

17. Sub-sectoral allocation - Industry • Until recently based on a 1990 disaggregation • What information is already being collected or is available? • Annual Census of Industrial Production • Questions on energy expenditure • 1998, 2001 and from 2004 onwards energy expenditure questions by individual fuel • Problem is to convert from expenditure to energy quantity • Good price data essential

18. Sub-sectoral allocation - Industry Census of Industry Production expenditure by fuel & sub-sector Price data Emissions trading data Derived energy use by fuel and sub-sector % of derived fuel used by sub-sector Industry fuel use disaggregated using derived fuel %

19. 2004 Expenditure data - CSO

20. 2004 Expenditure data expressed as energy quantities

21. 2004 derived energy quantities as percentages

22. Sub-sectoral allocation - Industry Sub-sectoral consumption allocated based on pro-rata of spend by the sub-sectors’ on the individual fuels recorded by CSO in the Census of Industrial Production

23. Sub-sectoral time series - Industry

24. Transport Disaggregation • Overall quantities of petrol, diesel and electricity were known • Energy use by most modes of transport not known • Some pieces of the jigsaw were known • Rail • Public Bus Passenger Services – excise rebate • Air – kerosene, aviation gasoline… • Almost all petrol (gasoline) used by private car – but also some taxis, small commercial vehicles and lawn mowers etc…

25. Transport – problems and questions • How to split diesel consumption between private cars and goods carriage • What’s the effect of ‘fuel tourism’? • What’s driving transport energy growth – private car growth or freight growth…? • Car Transport - are purchasing trends (bigger cars) offsetting technical improvements in car engine efficiency? • Car Transport – are we really driving much more than in other EU Member States?

26. Jigsaw Pieces National Car Test Fuel Tourism Private cars tested after 4 years and every 2 years thereafter. Taxis tested every year. Before 1995 N.I. prices lower than Republic. Environment Ministry all island model. Over 3 million tests since 2000.

27. National Car Test Analysis - Private Petrol Car Mileage

28. Private Diesel Car Mileage

29. Model Energy Use in Private Cars Annual Mileage by engine size and fuel Fuel Efficiency of new cars by engine size Fuel Efficiency inflated by 20% for on-road Petrol & Diesel consumption in private cars X X =

30. Transport Energy Modal Split

31. Links • Ireland’s 2005 Energy Balance • http://www.sei.ie/getFile.asp?FC_ID=1966&docID=73 • Historic Balances • http://www.sei.ie/getFile.asp?FC_ID=1976&docID=901 • Energy in Ireland 1990 – 2005 • http://193.178.1.196/getFile.asp?FC_ID=2054&docID=659 • Energy Statistics 1990 – 2005 • http://193.178.1.196/getFile.asp?FC_ID=2049&docID=659 • Energy in Transport • http://www.sei.ie/getFile.asp?FC_ID=1859&docID=934

32. Ireland’s Energy Balance Thank you.