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Maine Greenhouse Gas Proposed Baseline Methodologies

Maine Greenhouse Gas Proposed Baseline Methodologies. Tom Peterson, CCAP. Maine Baseline. State baseline is sum of the following sectors Electricity generation Industrial includes non-CO2 for process gases, natural gas & oil systems, and stationary combustion Commercial Residential

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Maine Greenhouse Gas Proposed Baseline Methodologies

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  1. Maine Greenhouse Gas Proposed Baseline Methodologies Tom Peterson, CCAP

  2. Maine Baseline • State baseline is sum of the following sectors • Electricity generation • Industrial • includes non-CO2 for process gases, natural gas & oil systems, and stationary combustion • Commercial • Residential • Transportation Transportation • includes non-CO2 mobile source combustion • Agriculture/Forestry • Waste Management CCAP

  3. Maine Historical Baseline • The NESCAUM Inventory will provide information for the 1990-2000 period • CCAP will verify the NESCAUM inventory using: • EIA State Energy Report Data by sector, by fuel-type (1990-2000) • EPA’s State Inventory assumptions • Adjustment to the historical baseline will be made on an as-needed basis with input from working groups & Stakeholders CCAP

  4. Maine Future Baseline • Future baseline methodology • CCAP will project year 2000 inventory levels out to 2020 based on the best sector specific sources with input from Stakeholders CCAP

  5. General Baseline Issues • Historical CO2 estimates vary by source • EIA State Data Reports, EIA’s AEO 2003 report, EPA E-Grid, and the Electric Power Annual do not agree on emissions levels • Electric utilities, industrial sectors show greatest variance. • Percentage growth estimates may be less accurate than quantity growth estimates • depends on accuracy of base and differences between NE and Maine growth patterns • Differences in baseline levels are magnified through time CCAP

  6. Electric Utility Sector • Background Issues: • EIA data misclassifies electricity sector energy use data (e.g coal) due to deregulation • Non-utility generators are reported under industry • Large differences in emission estimates obtained by using different data sources (EIA, E-grid, Electric Power Annual etc) • Method: • Present alternative projections using various sources to Stakeholders for reaction and input CCAP

  7. Renewables Assumptions CCAP

  8. Electricity Baseline CCAP

  9. Natural Gas Prices EEA CCAP

  10. CT Electricity Baselines CCAP

  11. Transportation Sector • Background Issues: • Data discrepancy between historic fuel use & VMT • Method: • Initially use historical gasoline and diesel growth rates • Compare historical growth to AEO projections and studies done for Maine (i.e. DOT VMT projections) • Grow other fuels at AEO 2003 rates • Projection of NESCAUM’s mobile source combustion non-CO2 emissions based on fuel use CCAP

  12. Industrial Sector • Background Issues: • Inclusion of fuel use for power generation in 1997-2000 EIA state data may distort basis for projection • May not account for recent state actions • Method: • Grow NESCAUM fossil fuel combustion values based upon AEO2003 projections for New England • Extrapolation of NESCAUM’s oil & natural gas systems emissions & non-CO2 stationary combustion base on fuel use • Process gases based on EPA national forecasts adjusted for historical state percentage CCAP

  13. Commercial Sector • Background Issues: • Regional growth may not accurately depict Maine’s growth • May not account for recent state actions • Method: • Grow EIA state data based upon AEO 2003 regional projection CCAP

  14. Residential Sector • Background Issues: • Regional growth may not accurately depict Maine’s growth • May not account for recent state actions • Method: • Grow EIA state data based upon AEO 2003 regional projection CCAP

  15. Agriculture, Forestry & Waste • Background Issues: • Trends may not continue into future • May not account for recent state actions • Method: • Agriculture, forestry, and waste sectors use estimates projected using NESCAUM’s historical 1990-2000 trend CCAP

  16. Existing ME Actions • Existing actions may impact Maine’s baseline • Investigate what actions are included in the state’s current GHG inventory • Power sector • Renewable energy funds? • Renewable portfolio standard (RPS)? • Residential and commercial sectors • Building code standards? • Appliance efficiency standards? CCAP

  17. Potential Existing ME Actions • Transportation sector • Low-GHG vehicle standards? • Efficient fleet requirements? • Improved VMT data collection • Complementary transportation & land use modeling • Agriculture and forestry sectors • Reduction programs/BMP’s? • Offset requirements? CCAP

  18. Baseline Data Issues • Imports v. exports • Fuel sales v. consumption • Common metrics • Data limits • Monitoring and modeling methods? • Level of detail on activities and regions? • Non CO2 gases? • CH4, N2O, SFC’s, HFC’s, PFC’s, Black Carbon? • Ancillary costs and benefits? CCAP

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