IFPS : A Look at the Future Michael Buchanan WFO Corpus Christi
Current Status • Local implementation began May 15, 2002 with the CWF. • SRH is mandating all regularly issued products be done on IFPS by 9/30/02. • NWSH is mandating all CONUS sites be fully operational on IFPS by 9/30/03 (Initial Operating Capability).
What about the ZFP, FWF, RDF and CCF? • Our office will slowly phase in these other products into our IFPS operations through the upcoming summer. • Specific dates are yet to be determined. • Additional training will be necessary to address software changes, updated forecast methodology, new smart tools, etc.
Software Changes • There will be more frequent IFPS updates beginning in June 2002. • Rapid Alpha Process (RAP) was developed to achieve the NWS target of 2003 IFPS implementation. • RAP software will be upgraded every 6-8 weeks. • IFPS10 will be the first build.
LX1 & LX2 are the two IBM workstations located next to AWIPS WS1 & WS2. LX1 & LX2 will have the RAP software. They will have the full IFPS ported to Linux. Linux1-crp is the Dell machine located next AWIPS WS1. Linux1-crp has the Rapid Prototype software (RPP). RPP version may be slightly different than RAP. Only GFESuite; not full IFPS. LX1, LX2 & Linux1-crp
Future Hardware/Software • Additional Linux boxes in the future (PP1, PP2). • Pen mouse graphics tablet. • Post-build 5.x AWIPS software (OB1). • Full Linux replacement by FY06.
Primary reason for IFPS • Produce a displayable, detailed digital database (National Digital Forecast Database) that can be shared easily among both public and private entities. • The forecast data should always be “current” and be easily pulled by any customer who wants it (pull vs. push).
NDFD • Official NWS digital database. • Pulled once an hour from each WFO and uploaded to a central server. • Transmitted through the AWIPS WAN. • Can now view the NDFD experimental clusters at http://184.108.40.206:8080/ndfd_images/ (WAN only). • Available to all public and private users (i.e, The Weather Channel?).
“New way of doing business” • GRIDS are the key, NOT words!!!!! • View the forecast “product” as information and not only as text. • Paradigm shift. • Working/interacting with models rather than simply looking at them. • Forecast collaboration vs. coordination.
“New way of doing business” • Provide the customer with an easy way to access our forecasts. • Assigned shift duties may need to be changed based upon a temporal division of forecast responsibility (i.e, short-term and long-term desks) or the “problem of the day”. • Overlapping shifts may need to be considered. • Event-driven updates and keeping the grids “current” will be a necessity with NDFD. • Outreach to customers on IFPS should be strongly considered.
Time to Issue the Zones? • We all need to change the way we approach the forecast. • New forecast paradigm (grids…digital data…graphics…etc.). • NWS has adopted this paradigm. • Some forecasters will resist because “this is the way I’ve always done it”.
When do we issue an update in the IFPS era? • Event-driven updates. • Weather does not match forecast. • New model data arrives (i.e., when the new MRF arrives, you may want to populate Day 7). • Constant monitoring of the grids will likely be a routine duty. • WFO Pleasant Hill has their short-term forecaster monitor grids 24 hours a day.
Internet is a big player with IFPS • WFO Atlanta has a nice and easy interface for IFPS graphics. • WFO Pleasant Hill has a powerful interface to access grids and produce text, meteograms and hourly digital data (hourly RDF). This is a good example of pull technology.
Our Website • Still need to decide on the template(s) for accessing our gridded forecasts from our website. • How will the Marine Page fit in with IFPS? • What about the public and marine matrices that serve as input to the pre-existing graphics? Can we ditch these in a few months? • Input…suggestions…ideas should go to the webmaster.
Collaboration Tools • Intersite Coordination (ISC). • FX-Connect software. • Chat room to discuss the forecast situation with neighboring offices.
ISC • The main motivation is to make your forecast meteorologically consistent with your neighbor’s forecast. • Jack Kelly wants a “seamless stream of data”. • Will help NDFD look more realistic with less in the way of artificial geographical boundaries and individual forecaster bias.
ISC • It is currently disabled on linux1-crp box. • The next software build (RPP 16.2 and IFPS10) will contain ISC functionality. • Marine ISC still needs to be addressed. • Training on this new feature of GFE will occur after it is configured.
FX-Connect • Chat capability. • Extensive drawing capabilities (i.e., you can draw fronts and other meteorological symbols). • D2D functionality (Models, WSR-88D, Satellite, etc.). • NWSH may provide this software to each office in a future software build.
Daily Forecast Critique • Allows the forecaster to compare his/her forecast with observations and/or model data. • Provides real-time “verification”. • Initially, point verification will be used but eventually grid verification is envisioned. • Available with the same build as ISC.
DFC • Summary statistics are planned (BIAS, MAE, etc.). • New interface and graphics package are also planned. • Automated alerts based upon certain thresholds.
Other upcoming IFPS features • Fire Weather functionality in IFPS10. • Marine WWA capability in IFPS10 (MWS can now be produced in WWA). • AVN and MRF MOS (MAV and MEX) in IFPS10. • Service Backup functionality in IFPS11 (July/Aug 2002).
Other issues • TPC will likely NOT be on board with IFPS for the upcoming hurricane season. • This will pose a big problem with trying to get your grids to match the official TPC forecast. • A Smart Tool to decode the TCM data may be a temporary fix. • Other NCEP sites (SPC, HPC, MPC) are still a ? in terms of IFPS implementation.
Recap • IFPS Implementation will continue through the summer and be completed by 9/30/02. • Think grids, graphics, web and NOT just text (Paradigm shift). • Collaboration will become very important with NDFD. • Many new and exciting software enhancements. • Shift responsibilities may change (short-term and long-term desks).
Finally!!! • Ultimately, the success of IFPS will depend upon the customers who use our gridded data. • The NWS is betting alot on this link between information and the customer!!!