Contract Technical Kickoff

1. Contract Technical Kickoff EMISSIONS, METEOROLOGICAL, AND AIR QUALITY MODELING SUPPORT

2. EPA’s Perspective - Emissions Issues Marc Houyoux US EPA, OAQPS Air Quality Assessment Division Emission Inventory and Analysis Group

3. Emissions Guiding Principles • Improve timeliness • Emissions calculations • Quality assurance and summaries • Automate what can be • Prevent mistakes • Document as we go • Be able to find what we did, whether it was in-house or by a contractor; reproducibility • Improve emissions calculations, where get an impact

4. Improving efficiency (1) • Using the Emissions Modeling Framework for managing emissions modeling work. Example of SMOKE Case setup in the EMF…

5. Improving efficiency (2) • Improved automation of methods for quality assurance of SMOKE inputs and outputs • Log analysis • Automatic generation of PAVE plots • Interested in moving to VERDI • Interested in linkages to Google Earth, AirQuest, DataFed • Improvements in techniques and data for control strategy development and multi-pollutant impacts of these (ongoing work on the Control Strategy Tool), but need data.

6. Improving emissions calculations • Recent emissions modeling experiences for criteria and one-atmosphere (criteria, PM, Hg, and other HAPs) modeling • 2002-based platform developed by EPA • First limited use planned for this year • May need improvements in future, but none planned now • SMOKE automated test suite development • Main thrust of limited SMOKE “development” this year • Expected upcoming work assignment: Improvements in temporal profiles, speciation profiles and spatial allocation factors. New available data and new techniques for calculating improved factors. • Explore met-based techniques for met-dependent temporal allocation, such as residential wood combustion, some nonroad, and ag NH3. • Changes to emissions modeling needed to support upcoming CMAQ updates, with many emissions calculations internal… • Biogenics, plume rise, windblown dust, sea salt, ocean chlorine

7. Other topics of interestSMOKE-specific • Using SMOKE to support AERMOD, other dispersion models, and/or fine-scale Eulerian model applications • Inventory and ancillary data approaches for California, and using these data in modeling applications • Optimization of SMOKE processing, scripts, and quality assurance • Improvements and updates to SMOKE not previously submitted to EPA or CMAS, or not being used by EPA • Applications of SMOKE using WRF as the meteorological driver

8. Other topics of interest Miscellaneous • Emissions modeling and projections to support ambient air quality modeling tied to impacts of climate change • The status of the CONCEPT system and experiences using it • Experience and applications with the MEGAN biogenics model • Experience and applications with the Process-Based NH3 model • Spatial allocation approaches for resolutions below 4km • Emissions modeling applications in Alaska, Hawaii, and/or extra-continental US territories • Impacts and significance of tribal emissions data on regional and local modeling applications

9. The safety seagull EPA’s Perspective - Meteorology Issues Pat Dolwick US EPA, OAQPS Air Quality Assessment Division Air Quality Modeling Group

10. EPA Discussion of Upcoming Issues Related to Meteorological Modeling and Analyses • Primary Expectations: • Development of AQ model input meteorological files • WRF / MM5 • MCIP • Evaluation of AQ model input meteorological files • Determination of meteorological sensitivity w/in meteorological and air quality models • Meteorological elements of OAQPS climate-related activities • (e.g., downscaling global climate model outputs to drive WRF / MM5)

11. EPA Discussion of Upcoming Issues Related to Meteorological Modeling and Analyses • Secondary Expectations • Assist in development of meteorologically-adjusted air quality trends • Development and maintenance of ambient meteorological data bases • Develop capacity for data transfer to other groups • Applications involving meteorological preprocessors for dispersion models • (e.g., AERMET) • Incorporation of prognostic model meteorological output into short-range dispersion models • Analysis of specific years / episodic meteorology • Assistance with exceptional events, EIS reviews, & other miscellany • Initial applications of WRF-Chem, WRF-CMAQ

12. EPA’s PerspectiveAir Quality Modeling Issues Norm Possiel US EPA, OAQPS Air Quality Assessment Division Air Quality Modeling Group

13. Air Quality Modeling Issues of Interest • Model Applications • CMAQ, CAMx, and AERMOD applications for various emissions control scenarios involving criteria and criteria plus toxic pollutants • Intercontinental/national/regional/local scale applications • Impacts of climate change on (1) future pollutant concentrations and deposition and (2) the effectiveness of emissions controls • Model Evaluation • Performance evaluation for CMAQ and CAMx using measurements at the surface and aloft and satellite data

14. Air Quality Modeling Issues of Interest • Model Sensitivities/Improvements/ Analyses • Horizontal and vertical resolution • Plume-in-grid treatment for point sources • Improvements and updates to the scientific approaches in CMAQ and /or CAMx (e.g. deposition, mixing) • Comparison of CMAQ predictions with WRF vs MM-5 • Characterization of model-predicted and observed inter-annual variability in pollutant concentrations and deposition

15. Air Quality Modeling Issues of Interest • Model Response • Compare the response of CMAQ and CAMx predictions to changes in input emissions • Process Analysis to understand and interpret CMAQ and CAMx results • Source Apportionment • Apply/compare CMAQ PPTM, CAMx OSAT/PSAT, and DDM • Develop source tagging for toxic pollutants • Peer review CMAQ source tagging and CAMx source apportionment techniques

16. Air Quality Modeling Issues of Interest • Model Applications Framework • Develop framework for managing CMAQ and CAMx model applications and output files • Visualization tools for analysis of model inputs and outputs • Sharing model input/output data with other groups