1 / 36

Metro 2010-2045 Growth Distribution Process

This document outlines the process and schedule for the 2010-2045 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation, focusing on the MetroScope equilibrium model for forecasting supply and demand in real estate. It discusses key assumptions, including zoning data, capacity information, and demographic forecasts, alongside employment projections. The methodology encompasses diverse models to assess residential and non-residential demand, alongside job location choices, travel times, and access data. This update aims to inform the Metropolitan Transportation Advisory Committee (MTAC) regarding essential planning metrics.

ferris
Télécharger la présentation

Metro 2010-2045 Growth Distribution Process

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Metro 2010-2045 Growth Distribution Process Project Update to MTAC January 4, 2012

  2. Process Outline and Schedule – page1 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  3. Process Outline and Schedule – page2 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  4. MetroScope – equilibrium supply and demand real estate forecast model Integrated land use & transportation model to forecast TAZ-level employment and households. Key forecast & policy assumptions: Zoning data Capacity (supply) information – residential and employment Regional forecast data (demand) Metroscope 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  5. HIA Demand Forecast Travel Times/Access (Travel Demand Model) Job Demand Forecast HIA location choices Job location choices Job Location Choices MetroScope Residential Model MetroScope Non-Residential Model HIA Location Choices Land Supply / Capacity Data Vacant Land, Refill Supply, UR etc. MetroScope Model Schematic Demand Output Supply 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  6. HIA Demand Forecast Travel Times/Access (Travel Demand Model) Job Demand Forecast MetroScope Residential Model MetroScope Non-Residential Model HIA Location Choices Land Supply / Capacity Data (MetroScope models the real estate demand factors) Metroscope: DEMAND DATA 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  7. Demand Data: Population Forecast (PMSA) • Pt+1= Pt + bt – dt + mt (population eq.) (x-axis denominated in years) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  8. Demand Data: Population Forecast PMSA: Range Forecast Range ~ 2 std. dev. 2010 Population: 2,226,009 (Census) 2035 Population: 3,210,000 (yellow line) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  9. Demand Data: Population Forecast Metro Council opts in UGB decision: Lower middle-third forecast range point value is assumed for 2010-45 TAZ Forecast (Gamma 2.0) Lower middle-third forecast range point value Standard Deviation 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  10. Demand Data: Population Forecast Convert household count to HIA distributions • Iterative techniques use • 2000 Census PUMS data to estimate households by : • Household size (7) • Income bracket (16) • Age of household head (7) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  11. Demand Data: Employment Forecast PMSA: Range Forecast Range ~ 2 std. dev. 2010 Population: 2,226,009 (Census) 2035 Population: 3,210,000 (yellow line) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  12. Demand Data: Employment Forecast 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  13. HIA Demand Forecast Travel Times/Access (Travel Demand Model) Job Demand Forecast MetroScope Residential Model MetroScope Non-Residential Model HIA Location Choices Land Supply / Capacity Data (MetroScope models the real estate supply-side capacity components) Metroscope: supply data 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  14. Supply Data: MetroScope Capacity Concepts 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  15. Supply Data: Metro UGB Residential 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  16. Supply Data: Metro UGB Non-Res. 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  17. Supply Data: Subsidized Redevelopment 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  18. Supply Data: Metro Urban Reserves 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  19. Supply Data: Ex-UGB Capacity 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  20. Supply Data: Clark County Clark County Residential DU Capacity Estimates: SF = 67,000 MF=45,700 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  21. Supply Data: Residential Capacity (PMSA) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  22. Supply Data: Capacity by Type (UGB) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  23. Supply Data: Single Family Capacity (UGB) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  24. Supply Data: Multi-family Capacity (UGB) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  25. HIA Demand Forecast Travel Times/Access (Travel Demand Model) Job Demand Forecast MetroScope Residential Model MetroScope Non-Residential Model HIA Location Choices Land Supply / Capacity Data Travel time skims linked to residential zones are a factor in determining residential location choice Metroscope travel demand data 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  26. Travel Demand Data: Travel Times Travel Time from Portland CBD Modeled 2010 2-hour PM Peak An example of typical travel time O-D pairings between downtown Portland and elsewhere in the region 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  27. Travel Demand Data: Travel Times Travel Time from Wilsonville Modeled 2010 2-hour PM Peak 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  28. Travel Demand Data: Travel Networks Networks in TAZ GAMMA Forecast 2010 existing 2017 network 2035 RTP Federal (Constrained) 2035 RTP State (Strategic) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  29. HIA Demand Forecast Travel Times/Access (Travel Demand Model) Job Demand Forecast MetroScope Residential Model MetroScope Non-Residential Model HIA Location Choices Land Supply / Capacity Data An equilibrium solution (balancing supply and demand for housing) is derived from the regulated buildable land inventory (BLI) and Metro “lower middle-third” regional population & employment forecast. METROSCOPE LAND USE TAZ ALLOCATION FORECAST 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  30. Recap and Next Steps • Progress to date - accomplishments • Concerns (next slide) • Research agenda to address concerns 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  31. Gamma 1.0 TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Forecast Key Concerns - Forecast Inputs and Assumptions: • Single family housing supply • Equity and price effects (economic dislocations) • Redevelopment (economic thresholds) • Redevelopment of relatively new development • Mixed use residential (horizontal districts) • Mixed use residential density assumptions (MUR 9-10) • Market differentiation by household type, tenure and location 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  32. Research Agenda • Proposed improvements to the forecast distribution process:* • Residential choice study enhanced with market segmentation • Redevelopment supply assumption refinement • Review actual development densities in high density multifamily and mixed use residential zone classes *depending on funding availability 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  33. Examples illustrating key concerns – SINGLE FAMILY, FUTURE PRICING TRENDS AND EQUITY

  34. Beta TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Household Forecast – SFR/MFR splits 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  35. Beta TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Household Forecast – SFR Price Projection • SF inventories are expected to dwindle faster than replenishment rates • Causing a surplus in SF residential demand • Resulting in further increases in SF home prices over the forecast 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

  36. Beta TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Household Forecast (SF) 2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

More Related