Climate Change and the Pacific Northwest What Impacts Can We Expect and How Should We Prepare?

1. Climate Change and the Pacific Northwest What Impacts Can We Expect and How Should We Prepare? PNWS AWWA Annual Conference May 2, 2008 Vancouver, WA Roger Hamilton, Climate Leadership Initiative University of Oregon hamilton.roger@comcast.net 541-686-4839

3. Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade

5. Change in Mean Monthly Temperature (Degrees C) 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990 B1 A2 MIROC HAD CSIRO

6. Percent Change in Precipitation 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990 A2 B1 MIROC HAD CSIRO

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11. Observed Temperatures Last Century Compared to Natural and Man-Made SimulationsVertical scale is .5 degrees Fahrenheit

12. The Last 20,000 Years seems to have been Ideal for the Development of Human Societies. Is this a Historic “Sweet Spot” that Enabled Humans to Flourish? 4.5 oC Is this an Anthropomorphic “Sweet Spot”? Agriculture emerges 1.5 oC

13. Volatility of Temperatures in Central Greenland over Last 100,000 YearsData shows remarkable stability in last 10,000 years during human settlement.(From 1995 Ice Cores) 13

14. There is a fundamental asymmetry between the time scales that the climate system reacts to increases in greenhouse gases and the time scales to recover from such increases. There is a fundamental asymmetry between the time scales that the climate system reacts to increases in greenhouse gases and the time scales to recover from such increases. Sea Level Rise will Stabilizes in over 1000 years Reduction CO2 missions sooner, moves these delayed consequences downward and reduces the time required to stabilize the responses. Temperatures Stabilizes in about 500 Hundred years Carbon Dioxide Stabilizes in several Hundred years 100 Years Today 1000 Years

15. CO2 and SO2 in the 21st Century Approaching 3,000 to 4,000 ppm A2 A1B Stable at 750 ppm B1 Stable at 550 ppm Future Scenarios are Based on Socio-Economic ‘Storylines’ Source: IPCC TAR 2001

16. What Do We See Happening Now? • Arctic sea ice has shrunk by over 20 percent since 1978 (Most recent: 7.8 % per decade since 1953 according to National Snow and Ice Center in Boulder) • Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica lost over 3000 square miles in 2002 • Glaciers are receding in North America, South America, Africa, Europe, and Asia • Methane, most powerful GHG, rapidly releasing from thawing tundra at 5X expected rate • Sea levels are rising and expected to increase up to 23 inches without melting of polar ice sheets • Increasingly strong storms and hurricanes

17. PNW Temperature and Precipitation Trends Over Past Century • Average warming since the beginning of the 20th century • Average 10% precipitation increase since the beginning of the 20th century • 30 to 40% increase in eastern Washington • April 1 Cascades snow pack declined 35% from 1950-1995 • Timing of peak snow pack moved to earlier in year • March stream flows have increased and June stream flows reduced • Most affected at low and mid elevations

26. Substantial Warming Seems Inevitable • 4o F or so temperature increase is likely to cause significant harm. • + 4o F increase may generate catastrophic impacts: All communities and persons will be affected. • Some scientists expect global temperatures to rise by 10o F or more by century’s end. • Temperature increases may not be gradual: rapid change may dominate. • New international report (over 2000 scientists) predicts temperature will increase 3.1 to 7.2 degrees F this century • If 6 degrees F, sea level could rise 80 feet with melting of ice sheets

27. PNW Projections for Next 10 to 50 years • Temperature: average warming 2.7 degrees F by 2030 and 5.4 degrees F by 2050 • Results: Higher elevation treeline Longer growing seasons Earlier animal and plant breeding Longer and more intense allergy season Changes in vegetative zones

28. PNW Impacts (cont.) Precipitation: May increase on average • Historical increase by 10% since 1900 but 30% in some locations • Most precipitation will continue to occur in winter and in mountains • Low summer precipitation and earlier peak streamflow: • decreased summer water availability • Increased flood damage • Shifts in hydro production from summer to winter • Decreased water quality • Increased salinity and pollutant concentration • Increased storm intensity, beach erosion, and stream scouring

29. Rain, Mixed Rain/Snow, and Snow Dominant Areas in the PNW (HUC4 resolution) Green = Rain Dominant Red = Mixed Rain/Snow Blue= Snow Dominant

30. Hydro Power Production • A ten percent decrease in flows can reduce hydro production by 36% • Conservative Prediction: 20% hydro power reduction in Columbia Basin by 2060. • Increased pressure to reduce power to help stressed fish. • Increased summer temperatures will cause increased summer power demand for air conditioning

31. Hydropower • Climate drivers • Increased levels of CO2. • Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. • Earlier snowmelt. • No significant change in amount of precipitation. • Sea level rise by 2100 of 4 to 35 inches.

32. (+3.6F, +6%) (+4.1F, +5%) (+5.2F, -4%) • Winter and Spring: increased generation • Summer: decreased generation • Annual: total production will depend on annual precipitation • Plus: impacts on electricity demand •  in winter •  in summer NWPCC (2005)

34. Economic Impacts • Varies greatly by municipality depending on water source, water quantity relative to population, adaptive management, etc. • Both supply and demand solutions have costs; e.g. Lake Tapps system in Pierce County estimated at $450 million. • One study found water conservation costs to offset the decline in firm yield of Seattle’s water supply could exceed $8 million per year by the 2020s and $16 million per year by 2040s. Municipal water supply • Climate drivers • Increased levels of CO2. • Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. • Earlier snowmelt. • No significant change in amount of precipitation. • Sea level rise by 2100 of 4 to 35 inches.

35. TYPES OF PREPARATION MEASURES CATEGORY Status Quo Prevent the Loss Spread or Share the Loss Change the Activity Change the Location Prepare EXAMPLE Rebuild, or abandon affected structures Build for big winds, floods, drought Purchase flood insurance Don’t build in low lying coastal areas, rebuild wetlands Relocate buildings out of flood zones Protect and restore wetlands and forests in streams From Adapting to Climate Change, Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network

36. For Energy and Water Systems: • Reliability of transmission systems threatened given higher summer peaking with increased air conditioning loads and higher ambient temperatures for electrical wires: need for distributed generation • Energy efficiency consistent with increased greenhouse gas • reduction regulation • Buffering of transmission and distribution lines anticipating increased wildfire frequency and intensity • Protection of electricity sub-stations against flood damage in flood-prone areas

37. Adjusting electricity production and transmission long-range planning to anticipate reduced hydroelectric water storage with decreased snow pack and earlier spring run off • Considering changes in wind plant production profiles due to changing climate regimes • Considering expanding municipal water storage facilities in drought prone areas with anticipated reduced precipitation and summer runoff • Buffering of municipal water and waste water treatment facilities against severe storm events

38. For Water Treatment Facilities Water Quality May Be Impacted by the following: • Increased mobility of chemical compounds • Increased temperature • Increased eutrophication • Reduced dissolved oxygen • Increased hazardous substances • Flush of sediment or pollutants from flash flood events • Leaching of waste disposals or water treatment facilities from flash flood events

39. Flash Flood Events May Cause: • Flush of sediments or pollutants • Leaching of waste disposals or water treatment facilities • Spread of pathogens

40. Drought and Fire in the West (Simulated Fire, no Fire Suppression) Interdecadal Climate Regime Shifts 1976 - 77 1988 - 89 1940s 1983 1998 El Niño

41. A2 B1 MIROC3_MEDRES HADCM3 CSIRO_MK3 percent Percent Change Biomass consumed by Fire 2051-2100 vs. 1951-2000.

44. UO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE • Greenhouse Gas Quantification and Impact Assessments • Low-Carbon Sustainable Economic Development • Climate Policy and Program Development • Private Access Local Government Web-based • Discussion Board • Pacific Northwest Local Government Climate Change Working Group • Climate Change Literacy and Information • E-mail alerts on climate change issues • Neighborhood Climate Change Program • Website: http://climlead.uoregon.edu • E-mail: hamilton.roger@comcast.net