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M&A Waves

ACG Chicago 2009 Annual Market Trends Breakfast March 6, 2009 John Waller Senior Vice President (312) 683-3640 jwaller@fortdearbornadvisors.com. M&A Waves. What History Tells Us About The Current and Near-Term M&A Environment. Recent Middle Market M&A Volume and Value. 2007 Versus 2008.

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M&A Waves

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  1. ACG Chicago 2009 Annual Market Trends Breakfast March 6, 2009 John Waller Senior Vice President (312) 683-3640 jwaller@fortdearbornadvisors.com M&A Waves What History Tells Us About The Current and Near-Term M&A Environment

  2. Recent Middle Market M&A Volume and Value 2007 Versus 2008 Transaction Volume Transaction Value -12% -15% 4Q 2007 Versus 4Q 2008 Transaction Volume Transaction Value -35% -40%

  3. Recent Middle Market M&A Volume and Value 3Q 2008 Versus 4Q 2008 Transaction Volume Transaction Value -26% -29% November and December 2008 Versus January and February 2009 Transaction Volume Transaction Value -52% -50%

  4. M&A Transaction History (all Transactions w/U.S. Target) Fifth Wave: Bull Market and Tech Fueled Wave (1992-2001) Third Wave: Rise of Conglomerates (1965-1969) Fourth Wave: Megamergers & Hostile Takeovers (1981-1989) Sixth Wave: Private Equity, Bull Market, High Liquidity (2003-2008) Sources: M&A Waves are discussed in detail in Mergers, Acquisitions, and Corporate Restructurings, Fourth Edition by Patrick Gaughan. Transaction data is from Mergerstat (1962 to 2002), Capital IQ (2003 to 2008).

  5. Percent of Countries in Default

  6. Real Housing Prices Current Account Balance/GDP Real GDP Growth Per Capita Real Equity Prices Source: “Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis so Different?, An International Historical Comparison,” Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2008.

  7. Past Changes in The us banking market Published by the FDIC for a January 1997 Symposium

  8. Select Recent Changes in The us banking market

  9. Conclusion “Unique” or “We’ve already seen this movie?” “There is nothing new under the sun.”

  10. outlook

  11. Caveats to positive outlook

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