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Lesson 10 - 4

Lesson 10 - 4. Testing Claims about a Population Proportion. Objectives. Test a claim about a population proportion using the normal model Test a claim about a population proportion using the binomial probability distribution. Vocabulary. None new.

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Lesson 10 - 4

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  1. Lesson 10 - 4 Testing Claims about a Population Proportion

  2. Objectives • Test a claim about a population proportion using the normal model • Test a claim about a population proportion using the binomial probability distribution

  3. Vocabulary • None new

  4. Requirements to test, population proportion • Simple random sample • n ≤ 0.05N [to keep binomial vs hypergeometric] • np0(1-p0) ≥ 10 [for normal approximation of binomial]

  5. Steps to test population proportion Classical or P-value • Test Feasible (the requirements listed before) • Determine null and alternative hypothesis (and type of test: two tailed, or left or right tailed) • Select a level of significance α based on seriousness of making a Type I error • Calculate the test statistic • Determine the p-value or critical value using level of significance (hence the critical or reject regions) • Compare the critical value with the test statistic (also known as the decision rule) • State the conclusion

  6. -zα -zα/2 zα zα/2 p – p0 Test Statistic: z0 = -------------------- p0 (1 – p0) n P-Value is thearea highlighted -|z0| |z0| z0 z0 Critical Region

  7. Example 1 – Hypothesis Test Nexium is a drug that can be used to reduce the acid produced by the body and heal damage to the esophagus due to acid reflux. Suppose the manufacturer of Nexium claims that more than 94% of patients taking Nexium are healed within 8 weeks. In clinical trials, 213 of 224 patients suffering from acid reflux disease were healed after 8 weeks. Test the manufacturers claim at the α=0.01 level of significance. H0: % healed = .94 n < 0.05P assumed (P > 5000 in US!!) Ha: % healed > .94 np(1-p) > 10 checked224(.94)(.06) = 12.63 One-sided test

  8. Example 1 – Hypothesis Test p – p0 Test Statistic: z0 = -------------------- p0 (1 – p0) n 0.950893 – 0.94 Test Statistic: z0 = ------------------------- = 0.6865 0.94(0.06)/224 α = 0.01 so one-sided test yields Zα = 2.33 Since Z0 < Zα, we fail to reject H0 – therefore there is insufficient evidence to support manufacturer’s claim

  9. Example 2 – Binomial Probability According to USDA, 48.9% of males between 20 and 39 years of age consume the minimum daily requirement of calcium. After an aggressive “Got Milk” campaign, the USDA conducts a survey of 35 randomly selected males between 20 and 39 and find that 21 of them consume the min daily requirement of calcium. At the α = 0.1 level of significance, is there evidence to conclude that the percentage consuming the min daily requirement has increased? H0: % min daily = 0.489 n < 0.05P assumed (P > 700 in US!!) Ha: % min daily > 0.489 np(1-p) > 10 failed 35(.489)(.511) = 8.75 One-sided test

  10. Example 2 – Binomial Probability Since the sample size is too small to estimate the binomial with a z-distribution, we must fall back to the binomial distribution and calculate the probability of getting this increase purely by chance. P-value = P(x ≥ 21) = 1 – P(x < 21) = 1 – P(x ≤ 20) (discrete) 1 – P(x ≤ 20) is 1 – binomcdf(35, 0.489, 20) (n, p, x) P-value = 0.1261 which is greater than α, so we fail to reject the null hypothesis (H0) – insufficient evidence to conclude that the percentage has increased

  11. Using Your Calculator • Press STAT • Tab over to TESTS • Select 1-PropZTest and ENTER • Entry p0, x, and n from given data • Highlight test type (two-sided, left, or right) • Highlight Calculate and ENTER • Read z-critical and p-value off screen From first problem:z0 = 0.686 and p-value = 0.2462 Since p > α, then we fail to reject H0 – insufficient evidence to support manufacturer’s claim.

  12. Summary and Homework • Summary • We can perform hypothesis tests of proportions in similar ways as hypothesis tests of means • Two-tailed, left-tailed, and right-tailed tests • The normal distribution or the binomial distribution should be used to compute the critical values for this test • Homework • pg 550 – 552; 1, 2, 6, 12, 17, 26

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