1 / 19

WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance...

WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance. Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance of Models in Relation to the new EU Air Quality Directive (WG2 - FAIRMODE) E.Georgieva, P.Dilara. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance. Purpose of the Scoping Paper:

garrettprice
Télécharger la présentation

WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance...

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance of Models in Relation to the new EU Air Quality Directive (WG2 - FAIRMODE) E.Georgieva, P.Dilara

  2. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • Purpose of the Scoping Paper: • Provide background information on compliance related aspects of the models quality assurance procedures • Define the aims of WG2 activities • Propose methodologies and relevant issues to be discussed at the kick-off meeting • At present the document has a “open questions” character

  3. 1.- In all zones and agglomerations, depending on pollution levels with respect to LT, UT and LV WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • Modelling in the context of the new EU AQD: • Assessment of ambient air quality • Planning and mitigation strategies (e.g. emission scenarios) • Assessment of the contribution of natural sources, road dust and winter sanding/salting (source apportionment) • Short term forecast for exceedances of information and /or alert thresholds 2. 3. 4. Modelling: implicitely referred as most like methodology

  4. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... Limit value, Upper and Lower assess. Threshold SO2, CO, NO2, NOx, PM, lead, benzene • Assessment (AQD) • : modelling shall be sufficient • : combination of modelling and • measurements • : measurements may be • supplemented by modelling 1 LV 3 2 UAT 3 2 LAT 1

  5. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • Models in support of the AQD should be • reliable and trustful • Model Quality Assurance is a crucial stage and • has to be tailored to different type of models use • (explicitly or implicitly mentioned in the Directive)

  6. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • Model Quality Objectives (MQO) • Relevant to AQ assessment • Defined as modelling • uncertainty with regard • to hourly, 8h avg., • daily or annual values • WG1: • Relative Directive • Error

  7. TOTAL uncertainty MODEL uncertainty INPUT DATA uncertainty Variability WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • The uncertainty concept ( …remind) e.g. Britter,94; Borrego, Miranda et al.,2008 • essential for models supporting political decision • Can be determined by statistical evaluation comparing observations with model results = + + Parameterizations, numerical, grid Emissions, meteorology, chemistry Stochastic atm. + anthropog. processes

  8. Model evaluation (fitness- for- purpose): • scientific evaluation • verification • validation • model intercomparison • sensitivity analysis • uncertainty analysis • operational evaluation • AQD criteria for • acceptability of modelling results: • Modelling uncertainty WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... Uncertainty and model quality assurance If generally accepted Model Evaluation Protocol is missing, model validation and intercomparison usually address the model assessment

  9. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • Open questions 1/2: • Representativeness of stations– compound specific? • Quality of monitored data (data coverage, comparability of PM instruments, treatments of small concentrations) • Uncertainties of the single modules of the modelling system (emission, meteorology, chemical transport model) • Uncertainty of nested models (multiscale model cascades) (different spatial scales in emission inventory top/down and bottom/up, nesting in the meteorological and chemical transport model)

  10. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • Open questions 2/2: • Uncertainty for combination of monitoring and modelling (data assimilation), uptake of Kopernikus (GMES) Atmospheric Service • Identify complimentary quality indicators (statistical indexes) for different type of model applications, compound specific ? • Communication of model uncertainty to decision makers (uncertainty spatial mapping, reporting for further use in health and environmental applications) • The model’s user as a source of uncertainty – how to evaluate and how to overcome it

  11. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • AIMS of WG2 activities: • Overall goal: To develop methodology for • quality assurance of models in support of the • new EU – AQD • (i) Develop and recommend an EU wide standard procedure for uncertainty evaluation and model performance indicators in support of AQ assessment according the AQD

  12. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • AIMS of WG2 activities - continued: • (ii) Create a European Framework for Model Validation for different type of models (from hotspot to regional scale) and different purposes (assessment, scenario calculations, forecast of exceedances, contribution from natural sources and winter sanding/salting) • (iii) Steer any potential modifications of the AQD

  13. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • WG2 participation: • All EU national experts (bring their needs and expectations, practical test cases) • DG-ENV (collaborate with respect implementation • of the AQD) • JRC- Ispra: chair for the beginning (meetings, workshops) • EEA-ETC/ACC: contribute • External experts if needed • Others?

  14. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • Activities of WG2 (tentative list): • Organisation of intercomparison exercises for the purposes of the AQD. • b) Uncertainty analysis • c) Characterisation of monitoring stations

  15. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • Organisation of intercomparison exercises for the purposes of the AQD. • Models will be evaluated in two ways: • How well are the models able to reproduce current air pollution ? (AQ assessment) • How well do the models respond to emission changes? (scenario calculations) • JRC experience with CityDelta, EuroDelta

  16. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • ….Intercomparison exercise – possible objectives/activities • Study the impact of different modules of an AQ system • on hourly, daily and annual concentrations • Study and develop appropriate statistical parameters (indexes) in addition to the AQD parameter • Propose and test benchmarks • Develop/adopt appropriate graphical representation (compound specific?)

  17. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • b)Uncertainty analysis: • Develop/adopt and regularly update datasets • (make use of databases by ACCENT, COST728/732, JRC-DAM, EU – INSPIRE Initiative) • Uncertainty/sensitivity due to individual physical and chemical processes • Sensitivity analysis to input parameters (IC/BC, meteo, land use etc.) • How to define uncertainty for Ensemble Means? • Address contribution of stochastic variability

  18. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • c)Characterisation of monitoring stations: • Representativeness, both for AQ and Meteo • Number and types • Analyse if compound specific or not

  19. WG2 Scoping Paper on Quality Assurance... • Concluding remarks: • The Scoping paper is very general • We invite participants to share their needs and expectations • SIGN UP in FAIRMODE web site for WG2 • Questionnaire • Meeting in January 09 on definition of the framework, topics and first exercises Thank you for your attention

More Related