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Presentation of the tasks and activity planning for the work group BioMA

Presentation of the tasks and activity planning for the work group BioMA WP 3: BioMA (Multi-model crop yield estimates) Roberto Confalonieri & Marcello Donatelli roberto.confalonieri@unimi.it - www.robertoconfalonieri.it. E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium).

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Presentation of the tasks and activity planning for the work group BioMA

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  1. Presentation of the tasks and activity planning for the work group BioMA WP 3: BioMA(Multi-model crop yield estimates) RobertoConfalonieri & Marcello Donatelli roberto.confalonieri@unimi.it - www.robertoconfalonieri.it E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  2. E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  3. WP 3: Objectives • Collection of data to properly adapt the BioMA platform to monitoring and forecasting in China (rice) and Morocco (wheat) • Calibration of the parameters of the BioMA models (WARM, CropSyst, WOFOST) for rice in China and wheat in Morocco • Evaluation of the BioMA suitability for multi-model monitoring and yield forecasting of rice in China and wheat in Morocco • Deployment of adapted software platform to local users E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  4. Outline • WP 3 tasks description • Scientific issues related with WP 3 • Technology used to meet the project requirements • Activity planning E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  5. Outline • WP 3 tasks description • Scientific issues related with WP 3 • Technology used to meet the project requirements • Activity planning E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  6. WP 3 tasks description • Task 3.1: Ground data collection for BioMA • Task 3.2: Adaptation of BioMA for multi-model rice monitoring in China • Task 3.3: BioMA piloting for multi-model rice monitoring and yield forecasting in JIANGHUAI Plain, China • Task 3.4: Adaptation of BioMA for multi-model wheat monitoring in Morocco • Task 3.5: BioMA piloting for multi-model wheat monitoring and yield forecasting in Morocco E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium) Wheat, Morocco Rice, China Task 3.1 BioMA adaptation Task 3.2 Task 3.4 BioMA piloting Task 3.3 Task 3.5

  7. Task 3.1 description • Task leader: JAAS; partners: JAAS, INRA • Activity 3.1.1: Identification of the group of cultivars to be calibrated for the BioMA crop models (WARM, CropSyst, WOFOST) • Activity 3.1.2: Identification of measurable key variables and parameters needed for a robust calibration of the BioMA models • Activity 3.1.3: Collection of data (i) for each group of cultivar [3.1.1], (ii) for suitable variables [3.1.2], (iii) for different combinations site  year • Activity 3.1.4: Development of a database for the parameterization and calibration activities according to specifications provided by Task 3.2 E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium) Wheat, Morocco Rice, China Task 3.1 BioMA adaptation Task 3.2 Task 3.4 BioMA piloting Task 3.3 Task 3.5

  8. Tasks 3.2 & 3.4 description • Task leaders: UNIMI, JRC; partners: UNIMI, JRC • Activity 3.2(4).1: Spatially distributed sensitivity analysis of the BioMA models to identify the most relevant parameters • Activity 3.2(4).2: Parameters calibration for each model and group of cultivars • Activity 3.2(4).3: Evaluation of the BioMA models for field-scale simulations for each group of cultivars • Activity 3.2(4).4: Evaluation of the BioMA models for large-area simulations using official yield statistics E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium) Wheat, Morocco Rice, China Task 3.1 BioMA adaptation Task 3.2 Task 3.4 BioMA piloting Task 3.3 Task 3.5

  9. Tasks 3.3 & 3.5 description • Task leaders: UNIMI, JRC; partners: UNIMI, JRC, JAAS, INRA • Activity 3.3(5).1: Evaluation of the suitability of the BioMA platform for rice/wheat monitoring and yield forecasts in China/Morocco • Activity 3.3(5).2: Evaluation of the usefulness of the multi-model approach for monitoring and forecasting activities • Activity 3.3(5).3: Evaluation of possible improvements in monitoring and forecasting capabilities due to the injection in the models of exogenous data (i.e., forcing state variables using NDVI or LAI data) E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium) Wheat, Morocco Rice, China Task 3.1 BioMA adaptation Task 3.2 Task 3.4 BioMA piloting Task 3.3 Task 3.5

  10. Outline • WP 3 tasks description • Scientific issues related with WP 3 • Technology used to meet the project requirements • Activity planning E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  11. Scientific issuesrelated with WP 3 • The scientific background we willstart from is represented by theprototype of rice yield forecastingsystem developed by the JRC in2008 for the whole China • The steps forward will be represented by: • the simulation of diseases and abioticdamages impact on productions (!!!) • the adoption of a multi-modelapproach to crop simulation • the evaluation of the dynamic use ofremote sensed information to forcecrop models state variables E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  12. Outline • WP 3 tasks description • Scientific issues related with WP 3 • Technology used to meet the project requirements • Activity planning E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  13. BioMA • BioMA is an extensible platform for running biophysical models on generic spatial units. • Simulations are carried out on modelling solutions, that are discrete simulation engines where different models are selected and integrated to run simulations for a specific goal. • Each modelling solution makes use of extensible components. • The guidelines followed during its development aim at maximizing: • Extensibility with new modelling solutions • Ease of customization in new environment • Ease of deployment E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  14. BioMA • Since the lack of a real modules reuse has been one of the main reasons that delayed model development in the last decades, the component oriented programming paradigm was followed. • Modules are therefore implemented in generic (framework-independent) software units (i.e., components). • A component can be defined as: “A unit of composition with contractually specified interfaces and explicit context dependencies only. A software component can be deployed independently and is subject by composition by third parties”. • The component-based paradigm strongly push scientists to think of models in modular terms E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  15. BioMA • A modular conceptualization of models allows: • An easier transfer of research results into operational tools; • The comparison of different approaches; • A greater transparency; • More rapid application development; • Re-use of models of known quality; • Independent extensibility by third parties; • Avoiding duplications. E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  16. BioMA E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  17. Modelling solutions • Six modelling solutions will be developed and evaluated within E-AGRI • Rice in China: multi-model simulations with and without forcing the models with RS data • WARM (Confalonieri et al., 2010) • WOFOST (Van Keulen and Wolf, 1986) • CropSyst (Stöckle et al., 2003) • Wheat in Morocco: multi-model simulations • WOFOST • CropSyst E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  18. Modelling solutions • Each modelling solutions will include models for: • Crop growth and development (CropML and CropML_WL) • Soil water dynamics (SoilRE and SoilW) • Diseases (DiseasesProgress, ImpactsOnPlant, BlastDiseases) • Abiotic damages (AbioticDamage) • Forcing models state variables with exogenous data (i.e., NDVI or NDVI-derived leaf area index) (used only for rice in China) (Forcing) • Micrometeorology (TRIS) • Each modelling solution performs simulation for different production levels, keeping separated the outputs of the levels themselves E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  19. Modelling solutions • Example: • Rice • South America • potential • water limited • diseases limited • abiotic damage E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  20. Components • Most of these components are already developedand operationally used within different projectsrelated with crop monitoring and yield forecasting,food security, and evaluation of the impact ofclimate change E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  21. Supporting tools • BioMA is provided with supporting tools (extensible and re-usable outside BioMA) for developers and users: • LUISA: Monte Carlo based sensitivity analysis, implementing 7 sensitivity analysis methods; • Optimizer: Automatic calibration extensible for objective functions and solvers. It currently implements different solvers based on the downhill simplex (Nelder and Mead, 1965); • IMMA: model evaluation based on simple and composite metrics for quantifying model performances and complexity E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  22. Example of spatiallydistributed sensitivity analysis E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  23. Example of spatiallydistributed sensitivity analysis E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  24. Data display Maps and time series E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium) click

  25. Outline • WP 3 tasks description • Scientific issues related with WP 3 • Technology used to meet the project requirements • Activity planning E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  26. Activity planning GANTT diagram for the whole WP 3 E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  27. Activity planning GANTT diagram for Task 3.1 E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  28. Activity planning GANTT diagram for Tasks 3.2 and 3.4 E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  29. Activity planning GANTT diagram for Tasks 3.3 and 3.5 E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

  30. …Thank you for your kind attention

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