1. Statistical inference NZC levels 6 and 7

2. Statistical inference NZC levels 6 and 7 “Sample-to-population inference is the most important concept you will learn in statistics.” True or false?

3. How healthy are the koalas?

4. How healthy are the koalas?

11. Key ideas NZC level 7 Sampling Variability • Every sample contains sampling error due to the sampling process • Other errors, non-sampling errors, may be present due to the sampling method applied (bias) • Developing an understanding that confidence in the estimate will vary depending on factors such as sample size, sampling method, the nature of the underlying population, sources of bias. • Experiencing evidence for the central limit theorem by simulating samples and comparing the distribution of sample medians for samples of different sizes. Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

12. Sample statistics population Sample statistic: median of sample (known) sample Population parameter: median (or other statistic) of whole population (unknown) Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

13. Key ideas 2 Using the Level 7 guideline for constructing informal confidence intervals for the population medians • Informal development of the formula Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

14. Key ideas 3 Statistical literacy • Using correct vocabulary: estimate, point estimate, parameter, sample • Developing critical thinking with respect to the media involving sampling to make an inference • Applying the PPDAC cycle Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

15. Possible data sets • Stats NZ: Surf (synthetic unit record files 2003) • Census at School: school survey data, Kiwi data, • http://seniorsecondary.tki.org.nz/Mathematics-and-statistics/Achievement-objectives/AO-S7-1 • Kiwi Kapers 1: explores the justification for using a sample to make an inference and sampling variation • Kiwi Kapers 2: explores the effect of sample size so that we can have confidence in our estimate • Sampling stuff: explores sampling methods to ensure the sample is representative: stratified sampling Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

16. Collections of medians Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

17. What else might affect the uncertainty in estimating the population median? • The spread of the population • Comparing the heights of intermediate school (years 7 and 8) and the heights of junior high school students (years 7 to 10) Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

18. Sampling variability: effect of spread Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

19. Estimating the spread of the population • Best estimate: using the IQR of our sample • Using the quartiles of our sample as point estimates for the quartiles of the population Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

20. Providing an interval estimate (a confidence interval) for the population median There are two factors which affect the uncertainty of estimating the parameter: • Sample size • Spread of population, estimated with sample IQR • How confident do we want to be that our interval estimate contains the true population median? Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

21. Development of formula for confidence interval population median = sample median ± measure of spread √sample size To ensure we predict the population median 90% of the time population median = sample median ± 1.5measure of spread √sample size population median = sample median ± 1.5 x IQR √n Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

22. Justification for the calculation Based on simulations, • The interval includes the true population median for 9 out of 10 samples - the population median is probably in the interval somewhere • This leads to being able to make a claim about the populations when they do not overlap • Sampling variation only produces a shift large enough to make a mistaken claim about once in 40 pairs of samples Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

23. Comparing two populations • Sampling variation is always present and will cause a shift in the medians • We are looking for sufficient evidence, a big enough shift in the intervals for the median to be able to make a claim that there is a difference back in the populations Lindsay Smith, University of Auckland Stats Day 2011

24. Census@schooldataviewer

25. “ NCEA level 2 is not an endpoint. It is a platform.”