Eco-Region NW: Sustainable Construction CCINW, Manchester, September 6, 2005 Alastair Moore

1. Eco-Region NW: Sustainable Construction CCINW, Manchester, September 6, 2005 Alastair Moore University of Manchester Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology

2. Order of things . . . • Project overview • Ecological footprint • Scenario modelling tool • Case study: construction • Conclusions & Questions

3. Eco-Region North West

4. CITIES & REGIONS as MATERIAL PROCESSORS INPUTS Future impacts OUTPUTS People People Energy & water Information & capital Goods & services Goods & services Renewable resources Air, water, waste Non-renewable resources Resource depletion Land & environmental capacity

5. OBJECTIVES ·Databasing: comprehensive data system on regional resource and waste flows ·Modelling: integrated model to analyse future trends and scenarios ·Benchmarking: reporting system for waste minimization and resource productivity ·Business applications: apply the model / database system to the construction industry ·Policy & public applications: use the database / modelling system to analyse regional policy

6. Indicators: •  Can be applied to regional economy: or SIC sectors, or products (e.g. house) • Ecological impacts: ecological footprint (EF) • Climate change: carbon intensity • Resource efficiency: resource inputs / resource outputs • Resource sufficiency: domestic production / domestic consumption • Resource productivity: GVA in production per unit MFA • Res.effectiveness: primary inputs / final consumption after waste

7. Ecological Footprint • Estimate of a population's consumption of food, materials and energy in terms of the area of biologically productive land or sea required to produce those natural resources • gha: A global hectare is one hectare of biologically productive space with world-average productivity • 2002, biosphere had 11.4 billion hectares of biologically productive space (approx one quarter of the planet's surface) • Includes 2.0 billion hectares of ocean and 9.4 billion hectares of land. • 1 global hectare is a hectare representing the average capacity of one of these 11.4 billion hectares. • Global hectares allow the meaningful comparison of the ecological footprints of different countries, regions, LAs, which use different qualities and mixes of cropland, grazing land, and forest • When all global hectares of bioprucdtive land and sea are divided by the total global population, we end up with our fair earth share - 1.8 gha.

8. Construction sector: case study

9. Drivers? • UK Gov’t Sustainable Development Strategy • UK SCP • Sustainable Communities • Prescott’s £60K house • Kyoto and UK GHG targets • Aggregate levy • Landfill levy • SEA • SA • Competitiveness • Current NW footprint 6.2 gha/cap vs ‘fair earth share of 1.8 gha/cap

10. Overall picture

12. Scenario modelling framework • Housing stock, flow model • Spreadsheet-model linked to REAP and others • Baselines or exg stock, growth, clearances • HH energy demand scenarios • Housing construction (MFA, EF, C02)

13. Ecological footprint of construction • 0.63 gha/cap household energy demand (~10% of total EF) • 0.3-0.6 gha/cap for construction activities • How to reduce the EF of housing by factor of 4 (i.e. ~0.16 gha/cap for energy demand & 0.08-0.15 for construction)?

14. To build new. . . . or not to build new?This is the question (sort of) • ~15-18,000 new houses constructed per year (RSS) • Opportunity for energy efficiency gains & lower EF • Has considerable construction EF to annualize • ~13,000 additional houses per year, net of clearances • ~3-5,000 homes cleared (demolished) per year • Reduces EF of poor quality exg stock • Replacement houses have construction EF to annualize • New homes have lower operating EF • Should no. of new more efficient houses be increased, or should we retrofit existing stock? • Could retrofit some or all of 3-5,000 homes slated for clearing

15. Construction phase

16. How ‘heavy’ is a house, and what is it’s ecological impact?

17. MFA (standard vs eco)

18. House construction EF • Total EF embodied in construction materials required to build typical house in the NW is 29 gha • REAP tells us another 13 gha per house is due to the activities of actually assembling all these materials into a house • Total EF of constructing a dwelling is 0.3 gha/cap/yr(assuming 60 yr lifespan) or 0.6 if 30 years is used (assuming closer comparability with operational costs)

19. Household energy damand:A series of potential policy options

22. Results (build & operate)

23. Questions • Is the EF the best metric to measure resource efficiency? • How do we annualize the EF of construction to ensure comparability between new build and retrofitting? • Footprint calculations are an underestimate of our global impacts, and they rely on national and regional level data. Does this make the EF measure too simplistic? • Is the EF’s accuracy sufficient to allow us to act on what the footprint is showing us now?

24. Conclusions • Retrofitting may deserve a closer look. • Few key assumptions, but EF, CO2 and material intensity results are comparable. • Start of a universal indicator of ecological impact of consumption. • Data is generally standardized and available yearly; hence updatable • More data will yield better resolution.

25. Alastair Moore Research Associate Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology University of Manchester Alastair.moore@manchester.ac.uk

26. CO2 emissions from construction of typical UK house

32. Primary mass balance Secondarymass balance Demand side mass balance Externalities mass balance Exported production Exported extraction Primary waste / emissions Production waste / emissions Secondary waste / emissions Household food cons. Regional production Factors: transport & construction Regional extraction Commercial food cons. Consumer waste / emissions Public food cons. Tertiary waste / em Imported extraction Imported production

33. Eco-Region NW data framework upstream downstream Production by sectors Activities Consumption by factors Impacts Waste & emissions REAP model: Application to Eco-Budget UK National level 5b) Activity model (Atlas) 5a) Sectoral model (REWARD) 1) Mass balance model 3a) Regional waste balance 2a) Ecological footprint Regional level 5c) Production benchmarks 4a) Construction benchmarks 4b) consumption benchmarks 3b) Waste sector benchmarks 2b) sectoral footprint Sectoral level Firm level Benchmarking ASSESS / ENWORKS

34. LCA results

35. Energy Retrofits to Existing Buildings • Loft Insulation (100 – 200mm) • Cavity Wall Insulation • Draught Stripping • Double glazing with low ‘e’ glass • Floor insulation • Gas Central Heating Controls • Hot Water Tank Insulation • Hot Water Tank Thermostat • Primary Pipework Insulation • Condensing Boiler • 10% renewables • Yield 38% CO2 reductions, or • 5.48 tonnes to 3.62 tonnes CO2/year/dwelling • 5580 tonnes/yr if applied to approx 3,000 dwellings slated for demolition • 53% reduction in EF by 2050 assuming 30 year phase-in