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DTC-HMT Task Primary Goal : Careful set of evaluations of the HMT model runs on the West Coast

DTC-HMT Task Primary Goal : Careful set of evaluations of the HMT model runs on the West Coast QPF evaluation for forecasters Impact studies of model physics Ensemble products and verification (from atmospheric rivers to small-scale QPF). Demonstration of new verification approaches.

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DTC-HMT Task Primary Goal : Careful set of evaluations of the HMT model runs on the West Coast

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  1. DTC-HMT Task Primary Goal: Careful set of evaluations of the HMT model runs on the West Coast QPF evaluation for forecasters Impact studies of model physics Ensemble products and verification (from atmospheric rivers to small-scale QPF). Demonstration of new verification approaches

  2. DTC-HMT Activities 1. HMT-West QPF Verification Demonstration Project (QPF verification for ensemble in realtime, MET workflow, real-time display). Example products: 30-d box plots, ET scores for members/ens mean, separated into regions). Forecasters view verification results on web page – some feedback, but no testimonials of benefits yet. Developer: impact of microphysics, test some verification approaches. 2. Atmospheric River Verification Demonstration Object-orientated approach (MODE). 3. Research to Operations Meetings and telecom 30-day summary of verification (full season of verification).

  3. Current Workplan (next 6 months): Baseline comparisons (NAM, HRRR, SREF…). Add time series to MODE Add reliability and ROC diagram plotting to real-time display. Include 6-h gauge verification Presentations Access QPE products. FY2011 Plans: Realtime evaluation of ARiver-related QPF Add moisture and winds to QPF verification Develop spatial verification techniques for ensembles QPE evaluation products (Stage IV, …).

  4. Some Recommendations • The Role of DTC-HMT needs to be clear: Determine whether a given algorithm or modeling efforts (e.g., HMT ensemble) are improving QPF forecasting – not just provide plots and verification products to the forecaster – on web. • 2. DTC-HMT: needs to address specific questions with the verification effort. What are the priorities? Some examples: • Do the moderate resolution WRF ensembles improve upon the coarser resolution operational models (before and after downscaling) and deterministic high resolution models? • Is there a probabilistic benefit to the ensemble for QPF in mountainous terrain? • How well do these models perform for more extreme QPF events? • Are there specific physics deficiencies (e.g., microphysics).

  5. 3. To address these questions, need an appropriate experimental design and analysis/verification approaches. There are issues how to do the verification (comparison of scales GFS vs WRF high res). Perhaps upscale to coarse resolution first (~40 km), then look at higher resolution. 4. Can HMT-DTC identify specific physics biases/problems with the models? And get it out to the community (workshops, etc…). 5. Should extract HMT ensemble data for the community to test other verification approaches or interpretations of the data (QPF, surface variables, etc..). 6. Need to run HMT ensemble using data assimilation cycling, so verification results can be related more to operations. 7. Perhaps, develop an advanced MET web-app to tap into this data and complete some verification. Very challenging to do this – QC issues.

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