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ZAMBIA COUNTRY REPORT PowerPoint Presentation
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  2. Presentation Outline • Overview of Zambia • Organisational structure of the CSO • Economic Statistics Division • National Accounts • Industrial Production • External Trade and Balance of Payments • Living Conditions Monitoring • Prices and Consumption Studies • Public Finance • Sources & Estimation Methods • Dissemination of economic statistics • Short comings • Constraints

  3. Zambia - Geography

  4. Zambia - Demographics • Surrounded by 8 other countries • Total area: 752, 000 km2 • Populated by 12 million people • Copper remains the main export (80 %) • Per capita GDP: US$910 (2006 prelim.) • Economic growth rate: 5.9 % (2006 prelim.) • Inflation rate: 11.1 % (June 2007)

  5. Organizational Structure of the CSO • The Central Statistical Office is one of the TEN Departments under the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP) • Mandated under the Census and Statistics Act of the Laws of Zambia to produce official national statistics • These include: • Population and housing census (conducted every ten years) • Economic Census (to be carried out every five years) • Census of Agriculture • Other periodical national social and economic surveys • The CSO consists of the Head Office in Lusaka and provincial offices in each of the nine provinces of Zambia • Headed by a Director and is divided into four divisions each headed by a Deputy Director

  6. Organizational set up

  7. Economic Statistics Division

  8. National Accounts Branch • Responsible for the compilation of GDP on an annual basis • Co-ordinate the conducting of the Economic Census (on-going) • Carry out establishment-based income accounting surveys (National Income Inquiry)

  9. External Trade and BoP • Responsible for the processing and analysis, compilation of merchandize trade statistics with the rest of the world. This is done on a monthly basis with a one-month time lag. • Also supplies trade data to National accounts branch for purposes of production of expenditure GDP. • Balance of Payments statistics, however, are compiled at the Central Bank [‘Gentleman's’ Agreement]

  10. Industrial Production Branch • Responsible for the compilation of the quarterly Index of Industrial Production • Covers mining, manufacturing and electricity • Census of Industrial Production

  11. Prices Branch • Responsible for the compilation of the Consumer Price Index used to calculate inflation • Compiled on a monthly basis • Most timely-produced economic indicator: disseminated every last Thursday of the reference month • Provides indices for use in the deflation of GDP

  12. Public Finance Branch • Responsible for the compilation of Government and quasi-government Financial Statistics • Functional and economic classification of general government expenditure • Secondary collection and compilation of monetary statistics

  13. Living Conditions Monitoring Branch • Conducts the Living Conditions monitoring survey every other year • Used for computation of poverty estimates and poverty maps • Updating of CPI weights • Direct measurement of Household Final Consumption Expenditure

  14. Data Sources • National Accounts Branch • The primary sources of data for the compilation of GDP include: • Census of Agriculture • Census of industrial production covering mining, manufacturing and electricity • Census of Construction • National Income Inquiry covering the services sector • The Government accounts for community, social and personal services and government final consumption expenditure. • The 1993/1994 Household Budget Survey (HBS) for estimating household final consumption expenditure and the informal sector. • Imports and exports from the External Trade statistics and transactions with the rest of the world from Balance of Payments statistics.

  15. Data Sources • Secondary sources for GDP compilation: use of volume and price indicators • Annual crop forecast and post-harvest surveys • Quarterly index of industrial production • Consumer Price Index • Turnover from VAT register

  16. Data Sources • External Trade statistics • Main data source is customs data from the customs and exercise division. • Non-Customs sources (e.g. electricity and crude oil) • Monthly survey of major importers and exporters for data verification • Industrial Production statistics • Data obtained directly from a sample of establishments in 4 provinces (for the quarterly Index of Industrial Production)

  17. Data Sources • Prices statistics • About 15, 000 price quotations obtained on a monthly basis from nearly 2, 000 retail outlets throughout the country • Public Finance statistics • Data obtained from annual financial reports on income and expenditure of government, and quasi-government institutions

  18. Data Sources • Living Conditions Statistics • Data obtained directly from household surveys • Indicator monitoring survey conducted every two years • Longitudinal survey with HBS module to be conducted every five years

  19. Compilation methods • Economic statistics compilation based on internationally recognized methodologies • 1968 & 1993 SNA, BPM5, 2001 GFS Manual, etc. • Classifications used include: • ISIC Rev. 3, HS, SITC Rev. 3, COFOG, COICOP • Plans are underway to implement ISIC Rev. 4 for the upcoming Economic Census, COICOP for CPI

  20. Dissemination • The Monthly bulletin, released every last Thursday of the month through a press briefing • Monthly CPI press releases • Website: • Publications: External Trade, National Accounts • Soft copies by request

  21. Users • Users are invited to dissemination for a • User-producer workshops held before surveys are carried out to take their concerns on board • Mixed reactions • Some users are very supportive • Statistics may still be misunderstood, so some express dissatisfaction

  22. Shortcomings in NA compilation • Remote benchmark year (1994) • Outdated weights for deflators • No appropriate volume indicators for trade, business and personal services • There are a lot of small-scale operators in these industries • Coverage of informal sector was only at the benchmark year • No current price estimates for private consumption; derived residually

  23. Shortcomings • For External Trade: • Quantity data from customs sources poor • No Trade indices produced (e.g. unit value indices, unit price indices) due to poor quantity/price data. • Industrial Production • Census of Industrial Production not conducted regularly • Outdated weights • Public Finance • Poor coverage of local government sector

  24. Shortcomings • Prices: • Outdated weights (1994)

  25. Industry • The classification used for industries is the ISIC rev. 2 • Rev. 3 was implemented when the 2003 enterprise surveys were carried out [yet to be incorporated] • For the Economic Census, rev. 4 will be used

  26. Industry • GDP is reported using three major sectors: • Primary • Secondary, and • Tertiary • Under the primary sector: • Agriculture, forestry and fishing • Mining and quarrying

  27. Industry • Under the secondary sector • Manufacturing • Construction • Under the tertiary sector • Trade • Hotels, bars and restaurants • Transport and communications • Financial intermediation and insurance • Real estate and business services • Community, social and personal services

  28. Agriculture • Primary data source: Census of Agriculture • Secondary data source: Annual Crop forecasting survey & Post harvest survey • Agriculture season: Oct 1 – 30th Sep • Output recorded in the year of harvest • Broken down into crops, livestock and vegetables & fruits • Weights: Crops (60%); livestock (30%); fruits & vegetables (10%)

  29. Forestry & Fishing • Data on forestry obtained from the Department of Forestry • Number of logs in cubic metres • Alternate sources: Forestry establishments • Data on fish catches in metric tonnes obtained from 11 major fishing areas across the country

  30. Mining and quarrying • Industry broken down into metal mining and Other mining and quarrying • Metal mining consists of copper and cobalt production • Other mining includes coal mining and stone quarrying • Mineral export index used as deflator

  31. Manufacturing • Data obtained from Census of Industrial Production and the quarterly Index of Industrial Production • Scope: • Food, beverages and tobacco • Textiles, clothing & footwear • Wood and wood products • Paper & paper products • Chemicals, rubber & plastics • Non-metallic mineral products • Basic metal products • Fabricated metal products

  32. Electricity & Water • KWh of electricity generated by ZESCO-owned & Lunsemfwa hydro power stations • Main, mini-hydro and diesel stations • Hydro stations generate 99 % of total electricity • Water data from NWASCO (Water regulatory body)

  33. Construction • Primary data source: Census of Construction • Secondary indicators: Input indicators used to estimate output • Cement sales • Stone quarrying • Index of building materials used for deflation

  34. Trade, Business & Personal Services • No direct indicators used for these sectors • Trade industry assumes output from Agriculture, manufacturing and imports of consumption goods are disposed of through trade • Business services follows the same trend as Trade • Personal services follow the same trend as Business Services

  35. Hotels & Restaurants • Bed occupancy rates used; obtained from the Ministry of Tourism • Bars and restaurant data obtained indirectly from the Food, Beverages and Tobacco sub-sector under Manufacturing

  36. Transport & Communications • Transport broken down into: • Rail transport (data on number of passengers & tonnage of haulage obtained from 2 firms) • Road and pipeline transport (passenger & cargo hauled; registered public service vehicles) • Air transport (passengers embarking & disembarking at the 4 main airports) • Postal and telecommunications services

  37. Financial institutions & Insurance • Employment • FISIM • Number of policies issued

  38. Real estate & business services • Real estate: urban population growth rates • Business services: assumed to have the same trends as Retail Trade

  39. Community, social & personal services • Data mainly for government sector • Uses costs (Intermediate consumption, compensation of employees) to estimate output • Data obtained from Public Finance unit which gets it from Budget Office • Personal services assumed to follow the movements of Business Services

  40. Constraints • Budgetary constraints in other government agencies affects production of statistics (e.g. tourism, fisheries, local authorities) • Poor quality customs quantity data • Outdated and Weak Statistics Act

  41. End of Presentation Thank You For Your Attention