Dangerous Dyads

1. Dangerous Dyads Bargaining in the Shadow of Power

2. Vs. • Positive statements • Diplomatic recognition • Intercultural exchanges • Alliances • Trade • Aid Conflict Hostile statements Hostile nonviolent actions Use, threat, display of force War Part I. The Puzzle of Dyadic Interaction A. Why do some pairs of states have dramatically different relationships?

3. B. Example: Six Dyad-Years • US-Iraq 1987: US forgives Iraqi attack on USS Stark, aids Iraq • US-Iran 1987: US destroys Iranian oil platforms, ships • Iran-Iraq 1987: Bloody war continues

4. B. Example: Six Dyad-Years • US-Iraq 2003: War • US-Iran 2003: No War • Iran-Iraq 2003: No War • Why the differences? No single state has become more or less warlike….but the dyads have!

5. C. Forms of Cooperation • Between Cooperation and Conflict: Bargaining • Formal Bargaining: Treaties, etc. • Tacit Bargaining: Reciprocal Action • Arbitration: Third-party resolution • Mediation: Third-party support

6. 2. Alliances: Only 25% reliable at first glance….

7. From Leeds, Long, and Mitchell (2000):

8. …but examining the fine print reveals a different story!

9. 3. Behavior: Convergence Example: Mutual Tariff Reduction

10. D. Forms of Conflict • War – Standard definition is 1000 battle-deaths • Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) – use, threat, or display of force

13. E. Are Conflict and Cooperation Opposites? 1. The Continuum View

14. 2. High-Conflict Events

15. 3. High-Cooperation Events • Are these mutually exclusive with the conflict list?

16. 3. Sometimes Conflict and Cooperation Co-Exist

17. Conflict- Producing Factors Outcomes Interaction Salience Issues Bargaining Conflict Cooperation Cooperation- Producing Factors Part II. The Spiral to War A Model of Dyadic Interaction

18. Part II. The Spiral to War Conflict- Producing Factors Interaction Salience Issues Bargaining Conflict Cooperation A Model of Dyadic Interaction

19. Interaction A. Political Relevance • Interaction • Ability to communicate • Ability to act

20. Interaction c. Measures of Interaction • Contiguity – Countries that border each other (or narrow body of water) (Countries surrounded by blue are contiguous to Red) 

21. Interaction ii. Major power status • State-level finding: Major powers do more of everything – conflict and cooperation • Result = Dyadic effect: If at least one dyad member is major power, increased levels of cooperation and conflict

22. iii. Politically-Relevant International Environments (PRIE), 1816-2001

23. Interaction Salience Issues A. Political Relevance • Issue Salience • Priority relative to other concerns • Determines amount of power applied • Low salience = inaction

24. Conflict- Producing Factors B. What leads to dyadic conflict?

25. Conflict- Producing Factors 1. Opportunity: Contiguity and Proximity

26. Conflict- Producing Factors Wealthy/Advanced State Poor State Proximity: Loss of Strength Gradient Resources that can be applied to a conflict decay at distance Shift in gradient due to technology or development

27. Conflict- Producing Factors 2. Dyadic Balance of Power a. Disparity = Peace b. Parity = War Risk

28. Conflict- Producing Factors c. Transitions: Dangerous?

29. Conflict- Producing Factors 3. Issue Type: Territory

30. Conflict- Producing Factors 4. Rivalry: Shadow of the Past • Repeated disputes  Future disputes • Easier for diversionary war

31. Conflict- Producing Factors c. Question: Is rivalry the cause of conflict? • Rivals fight more wars – or do states likely to fight become rivals? • Repeated crises  Use of more aggressive bargaining strategies • Rivals use more forceful strategies – against non-rivals!

32. iv. Rivals Learn Over Time

33. Conflict- Producing Factors 5. Arms Races • Rivalry + Arms Race = Risk of War? • Most arms races difficult to demonstrate:

34. Can You Pick Out the 3 Arms Races? Canada-Mexico US-USSR Israel-Syria Belgium-Netherlands Australia-NZ India-Pakistan

35. Conflict- Producing Factors Outcomes Interaction Salience Issues Bargaining Conflict Cooperation Cooperation- Producing Factors Part III. Pathways to Peace A Model of Dyadic Interaction

36. Part III. Pathways to Peace Bargaining Conflict Cooperation Cooperation- Producing Factors A Model of Dyadic Interaction

37. Cooperation- Producing Factors A. What Leads to Cooperation?

38. Cooperation- Producing Factors 1. Joint Democracy • Effects of Joint Democracy: • The “Democratic Peace:” Virtually no wars between democracies • Alleged Exceptions: US-UK 1812 (UK not democracy), UK-Germany WW1 (Germany not democracy), Finland-UK WW2 (no real combat), Peru-Ecuador (few casualties), India-Pakistan (civilians left out of the loop) • Fewer MIDs (1/3 to 2/3 reduction) • Shift to covert from overt when force is used • MIDs less likely to escalate to higher levels of violence • Increased reliance on mediation, arbitration • Increased common interests (alliances, UN votes, IOs, etc) • Increased Trade – Why should this be?

39. Cooperation- Producing Factors v. Formal Agreements

40. Cooperation- Producing Factors b. Institutional Explanation

41. Cooperation- Producing Factors c. Norms Explanation

42. Cooperation- Producing Factors 2. Shared Interests • Power Transition Theory: Mutual Satisfaction = Peace

43. Cooperation- Producing Factors Evidence for Peace Through Shared Interests • Alliance portfolios: Similarity generally reduces conflict • Better predictor than dyadic alliance! • UN Votes: Similar votes = closer economic ties

44. Cooperation- Producing Factors 3. Similar Institutions • Even after controlling for democracy / autocracy, similar government mechanisms (executive-legislative relations, etc) increase cooperation / reduce conflict. 4. Advanced Economies • Joint advanced economies trade, cooperate, ally more / fight less with each other than other dyads

45. Cooperation- Producing Factors 5. Economic Interdependence • Mutual gains from trade • Short explanation: Trade is voluntary • Absolute and Comparative Advantage

46. Missiles 20 10 100 200 10 Coffee Absolute Advantage Given 100 resources, what can each country produce? • Production possibilities without trade • Trade allows specialization. US buys Coffee at < 10 resources. Colombia buys Missiles at < 20 resources. • Example: Coffee = 1, Missiles = 10. US trades 5 missiles (50 resources) for 50 coffee (50 resources) • Result: Both sides can achieve levels of consumption outside of the original production possibilities!

47. Wheat 100 50 5 10 Cars Comparative Advantage Given 100 resources, what can each country produce? • US has absolute advantage in both goods – 5 to 1 in wheat, 2 to 1 in cars -- so has comparative advantage (bigger relative advantage) in wheat • UK has comparative advantage (smaller relative disadvantage) in cars (½ as productive rather than 20% as productive) • UK buys wheat at < 5 resources, US buys cars at < 10 resources • Example: Wheat = 1.5, Cars = 9. US sells 24 wheat (36 resources), buys 4 cars (36 resources)

48. Cooperation- Producing Factors 5. Economic Interdependence • Mutual gains from trade • Short explanation: Trade is voluntary • Absolute and Comparative Advantage • Reinforces democratic peace:

49. Cooperation- Producing Factors 5. Economic Interdependence • Mutual gains from trade • Short explanation: Trade is voluntary • Absolute and Comparative Advantage • Reinforces democratic peace • Allies trade more than enemies…but sometimes trade continues during war!