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Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy

Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy. November 2009. Farid Novin Senior Representative, BC & Yukon Bank of Canada. Global recovery has started Discussing various indicators The US economy has begun to grow again The Canadian and BC economies Economic outlook Risks to the outlook

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Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy

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  1. Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy November 2009 Farid Novin Senior Representative, BC & Yukon Bank of Canada

  2. Global recovery has started Discussing various indicators The US economy has begun to grow again The Canadian and BC economies Economic outlook Risks to the outlook The forward agenda Outline

  3. Global recovery has started

  4. Economic Growth Cyclical economic growth Long term trend of economic growth Slower than normal recovery L-shaped recovery W-shaped recovery

  5. Real GDP growth in major economies points to the start of a global recovery Sources: Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Japan Statistics Bureau, and Bank of Canada calculations.

  6. Central banks lowered policy rates aggressively Policy rates at or near the effective lower bound in many countries

  7. Central Bank balance sheet $B $T Source: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve

  8. Short-term funding markets have improved greatly

  9. US economy returns to growth

  10. US GDP and Final Domestic Demand(volume, y/y % change) Source: Statistics Canada

  11. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to be more subdued than in the past Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NBER (dating of cycles), and Bank of Canada calculations

  12. Canada and B.C.

  13. Canadian exports have plunged, largely owing to the weakness in U.S. demand 13

  14. The growth in household credit remains robust, while business credit continues to weaken Household Business

  15. Canadian GDP and Final Domestic Demand(volume, y/y % change) Source: Statistics Canada

  16. Economic recovery compared to past recoveries Canada USA

  17. Low government debt level in Canada % 17

  18. The Canadian dollar has risen sharply

  19. Inflation • Temporarily negative total CPI inflation • Decline in core inflation • Both total and core expected to return to 2 percent target in third quarter of 2011 • Conditional on outlook for inflation, target overnight rate can be expected to remain at current level until the end of Q2, 2010

  20. A substantial degree of excess supply remains in the Canadian economy Source: Bank of Canada

  21. Inflation in Canada %

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