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Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy

Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy. June 2012. Dr. Farid Novin. Bank of Canada. The Views of Farid Novin presented today may not represent the views of the Bank of Canada. Outline. World Economy The United States Canada and BC. The World Economy.

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Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy

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  1. Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy June 2012 Dr. Farid Novin Bank of Canada

  2. The Views of Farid Novin presented today may not represent the views of the Bank of Canada

  3. Outline • World Economy • The United States • Canada and BC

  4. The World Economy

  5. Chinese growth is decelerating towards a more sustainable level Real GDP Y/Y % change Source: IMF

  6. The recovery among major economies continues to be uneven Real GDP Y/Y % change Source: IMF, Stats Canada

  7. Striking divergences are apparent between the unemployment rates of core and peripheral economies in the euro area

  8. Central banks in advanced economies have maintained policy interest rates at historically low levels

  9. Some central banks have expanded their balance sheets further

  10. Large deficits remain a problem for many countries... Deficit as a % of GDP, all levels of government Source: IMF 10

  11. US economy

  12. US GDP and Final Domestic Demand (volume, y/y % change) Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

  13. U.S. real GDP growth is projected to remain relatively modest compared with previous U.S. recoveries

  14. Fiscal consolidation is expected to exert a significant drag on U.S. real GDP growth

  15. Canada and B.C.

  16. Canadian GDP and Final Domestic Demand (volume, y/y % change) Source: Statistics Canada

  17. Real GDP is expected to grow at a moderate pace

  18. Employment is now above pre-recession levels in B.C. Index 2006Q1=100 BC employment level before the recession Source: Statistics Canada

  19. Commodity prices Index 2006=100 Source: Bank of Canada

  20. Private and Public Sector Investment (y/y % change) * Intentions Source: Stats Canada

  21. Mineral exploration spending in BC has reached an all-time high $ Millions

  22. BC’s forestry industry has been severely affected by the US housing recession Exports ($millions) Source: BC Stats

  23. However, efforts to grow Chinese demand for BC’s softwood lumber have been very successful Growth in value of softwood lumber exports to China (y/y% change) Share of BC softwood lumber exports by value (%) Source: BC Stats

  24. Excess supply remains in the Canadian economy

  25. Table 1: Projection for global economic growth

  26. Table 2: Contributions to average annual real GDP growthPercentage pointsa

  27. Table 3: Summary of the base-case projection for Canadaa

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