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Recent Developments in the Angolan Economy

Recent Developments in the Angolan Economy. Recent Developments in the Angolan Economy. Angola was affected by two events that caused unexpected shocks to the macroeconomic context. Effects on Fiscal Account. Effect on Privat Sector. Performance of the Economy.

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Recent Developments in the Angolan Economy

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  1. RecentDevelopments in theAngolanEconomy

  2. RecentDevelopments in theAngolanEconomy

  3. Angola wasaffectedbytwoeventsthatcausedunexpectedshocks to themacroeconomiccontext ... • Effectson Fiscal Account • EffectonPrivat Sector Performance oftheEconomy

  4. Thetransmissionofprices takes placeaccording to theschemebelow AccumulationofPendingissues in the Financial Market ReductionofDebt Sales LessForeignCurrencyEntry FallofOilPrices Fall in thedomesticsupply (ImportedInputs) Risks in Stock Maintenance PRESSURE IN DOMESTIC PRICES Fall in externalsupply (Imports)

  5. Fiscal Policy - Therising deficit pusheddomesticdebt, andmayhavepushedprivateinvestmentaway. IssuanceofTreasurySecurities (Usdbillion)

  6. Thefiscal policymeasuresadoptedbytheExecutivehaveallowedthestabilizationoftheinterest rate onTreasurySecurities TreasuryTicket Interest Rates

  7. RecentissuesofSovereignEurobondswereissuedatlower rates andwithlongermaturities. Fonte: MINFIN

  8. Restrictivemonetarypolicyallowedthedecelerationoftheinflation rate, from 41% to 18% Inflation Rate, Percentage Exchange Rate, Kz / USD Fonte: MINFIN

  9. Net international reserves declinedsignificantlyfromaround USD 31.15 billion in 2013 to around USD 11.12 billion in 2018 ForeignCurrency Sales (USD Million)) Net international reservs (USD Milion)

  10. Weakeconomicgrowthsince2014… GDP by Sector (%) Grouth of GDP (%)

  11. Stock ofDebt Thereduction in economicactivity led to a 70% drop in revenues for 2014-2017. despiteadjustments in expenditure, thereweresignificant deficits thatpressuredthe stock ofdebt Evolution of the Fiscal Deficit( % of GDP) Stock ofDebt(in % of GDP)

  12. 3. Deficit of Global Treasury Treasury: Theyear 2018 wasmarkedbytreasurydifficulties ... Leveraged by Eurobonds and Price of Oil FinancingDeficit in NationalCurrency (Net Exports) 2. Acceptable levels of Treasury in Foreign Currency 3. . Deficit of Global Treasury

  13. Negotiations with the IMF are over, and EFF implementation is ongoing……

  14. As negociações Técnicas terminaram com sucesso. Todavia, há questões que preocupam o Governo Angolano: • A necessidade de descontinuidade dos Empréstimos colateralizados com petróleo (O TPE já tinha um compromisso com a China na altura em que a condicionalidade foi apresentada); • A medida acima poderá, no curto prazo, deteriorar as condições de financiamento do Estado

  15. Angola: Structural Targets for the First Three Evaluations at the EFF Shelter, 2018-19

  16. Angola: Structural Targets for the First Three Evaluations at the EFF Shelter, 2018-19

  17. Angola: Structural Targets for the First Three Evaluations at the EFF Shelter, 2018-19

  18. Angola: Structural Targets for the First Three Evaluations at the EFF Shelter, 2018-19

  19. Angola: Metas Estruturais para as Primeiras Três Avaliações ao Abrigo do EFF, 2018-19

  20. Projections for 2019 Agreed with Staff are Animators

  21. Theprojections for 2019 alsoindicatetheneed for a slightdevaluationofthe Kwanza (from 322 to 352 Kz / USD). Theinflation rate will continue in 2 digits, influencedbytheadjustmentof fuel prices. Buttherewillbe fiscal oversight

  22. Continuous Performance Criteria Angola: Performance Criteria (CD) and Indicative Targets (IM) to the EFF Shelter, December 2018 - December 2019 ContinuousPerformance Criteria Do not impose new restrictions or strengthen existing ones to make payments and transfers related to international transactions. Do not introduce new practices of multiple exchange rates or strengthen existing ones. Not to conclude bilateral payment agreements that are inconsistent with Article VIII Do not impose new restrictions on imports or strengthen existing ones for balance of payments reasons.

  23. THANK YOU

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