1 / 7

Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran

Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran. Jon Wolfsthal Deputy Director CNS. US Institute for Peace – June 10, 2014. US-Iranian Ties/Tensions Have a Long History. 1950s with Overthrow of Iranian PM Mossadegh 1960s - 1970s US Support for Shah 1979 – Iranian Hostage Crisis - 444

gwidon
Télécharger la présentation

Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran Jon Wolfsthal Deputy Director CNS US Institute for Peace – June 10, 2014

  2. US-Iranian Ties/Tensions Have a Long History • 1950s with Overthrow of Iranian PM Mossadegh • 1960s - 1970s US Support for Shah • 1979 – Iranian Hostage Crisis - 444 • 1980s – Iran Iraq War, Use of Chemical Weapons against Iran • 2003 – Axis of Evil/Regime Change Long time to get to this point, will take time to genuinely improve relations, build trust if at all possible

  3. Building Trust Via Nuclear Agreement is Hard • We Tried Before in North Korea – 1994 Deal Failed • Who Wants a Cookie? • Lack of Trust on Both Sides • Political Deck Stacked Against Compromise on Both Sides • Time Not Currently Working for US Security • Front Loaded Deal Not Reliable/Viable, So We Are Pursuing Step-by-Step • Has its Own Risks

  4. Why So Long? • Deal is About “Regaining Confidence” in Iran’s Intentions • Some Nuclear Capacity is Permanent, Regardless of Policy • We Have Good Reason to Doubt Them • How Do We Know When They Have Stopped? • Japan, South Korea, Others Still Suspected • We Needs Years of Compliance by Multiple Governments and Under Enhanced Transparency to See if a Deal is Working • Iran’s Nuclear Needs are Small, Gives us an Opportunity to Engage, Build Incentives for a Deal to Stick • We Are Betting that Iran Wants a Deal More Than a Nuclear Program

  5. Why Not Forever? • This is Not Iraq • Iran Not a Vanquished State • Seeking to Maintain a Fallacy of Nuclear Purity • They Will Have to Admit Something • Inspections/Sanctions are Not Going to be Like Iraq After 1991 • Would be Great, Not Going to Happen • Iran Wants an End State of Normalcy, Gives US Negotiating Leverage

  6. Phasing • Linking Increased Enrichment and Sanctions Relief to Milestones • Major Sanctions Relief Up Front Builds Incentives to Comply • Something New to Take Away? • Resolution of Nuclear Past • Prioritize What Matters • Greater Nuclear Demand without Foreign Supply • Outside Supply and Fuel Bank as Off Ramps • Years of Full Compliance • Subjective – Art of Negotiating

  7. Pitfalls (Bet On Them) • Allegations of Secret Facilities – Inevitable • Israel, MEK, US Sources • Allegations of Weapons Work Ongoing • What Happens to the People? • Efforts to Impose Non-Nuclear Sanctions by US • Missile, Human Rights, Terrorism • Let’s Not Forget Who We Are Dealing With • What is Worth Losing an Agreement Over?

More Related