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Decision Center for a Desert City: Research Needs for Climate Change and Water Sustainability

Decision Center for a Desert City: Research Needs for Climate Change and Water Sustainability. Patricia Gober School of Geographical Sciences Decision Center for a Desert City Arizona State University. WSWC/CDWR Climate Change Research Needs Workshop May 16-18, 2007.

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Decision Center for a Desert City: Research Needs for Climate Change and Water Sustainability

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  1. Decision Center for a Desert City: Research Needs for Climate Change and Water Sustainability Patricia Gober School of Geographical Sciences Decision Center for a Desert City Arizona State University WSWC/CDWR Climate Change Research Needs Workshop May 16-18, 2007

  2. Decision Center for a Desert City Background: • NSF’s Decision Making Under Uncertainty Initiative • Uses Metro Phoenix as a laboratory to study water resource decisions in the face of climatic uncertainty and rapid growth. • Reframes the climate change question to focus on decision making • Establishes a boundary organization between science and decision making.

  3. Conceptual framework for integrating science and policy

  4. Research Questions: Linkages among water, climate, and urban growth WaterSim 1.0/2.0 Integrates science activities Boundary object Experimental environment to study stakeholder engagement with science Research and data issues based on experiences with decision makers and boundary science Organization of Today’s Talk

  5. Research Questions

  6. How does household size affect indoor water use?

  7. Are there spatial effects in the way household size, presence of a pool, landscaping practices and lot size affect water use?(Wentz and Gober 2007, Water Resources Management)

  8. How does urban density affect water demand?(Lant 2007)

  9. Does the urban heat island affect water demand?

  10. Between 1990 and 2004, the nighttime low temperatures in the urban core were 2.2°C warmer than the surrounding rural countryside.(Brazel, Gober, Lee, Hedquist, Grossman-Clarke 2007, Climate Research) DCDC Research Finding

  11. DCDC Research Finding A rise of 1°F is associated with an average monthly increase of 647 gallons of water for a typical single-family unit. (Guhathakurta and Gober 2007, JAPA) Increased Evaporation Increased Transpiration

  12. How will climate change affect runoff and water supply?

  13. Hydroclimatic modeling predicts that runoff in the Salt and Verde watersheds from 20 scenarios in 2050 will range from 50 to 130% of historical levels.(Balling et al. 2007) DCDC Research Finding Figure 2. ~2050 change in temperature, dT (°C), change in precipitation, dP (mm day-1), and change in runoff (% of historical levels) according to the 20 model – scenario combinations.

  14. WaterSim 1.0 and 2.0 integrates science products.

  15. Decision Theater Decision Theater: Focus Groups are held in the theater. Each participant sits at the table facing the screens with a laptop

  16. Study participants are Arizona water experts—technical, policy, and service professionals 16 controlled focus groups 69 respondents Individual (content analysis) and group responses (interaction and discourse analysis) Baseline for longitudinal study WaterSim as Vehicle to Study Decision Making

  17. Develop and evaluate methods for presenting the uncertainty of climate change Scenario and sensitivity analyses Too little evaluation of these Perform scale-relevant research Data issues in reconciling human activities with water management Downscaling regional results to local decision making. Focus on processes over which DMs have control Little control over supply conditions Emphasize policy issues over which decision makers have control Acknowledge the importance of political environment in which decisions are made. Limiting growth in Phoenix is not politically feasible Stress water conservation solutions Research and Information Needs

  18. Q & A

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