The Future of Higher Education: Can MOOCs and Online Learning Survive?

1. Udacity EdX Can the Current Model of Higher EducationSurvive MOOCs and Online Learning? Coursera Hank Lucas Professor of Information Systems University of Maryland College Park

2. The three amigos • Kodak • Blockbuster • Borders • What do they have in common?

3. Interesting Developments • The Minerva Project proposes to create a top-tier for-profit research university. Students will live together on different campuses around the world and top professors will stream online classes to student seminars (New York Times, 4/21/2013).

4. Georgia Tech has announced a professional online Master of Science degree in Computer Science earned through MOOCs in conjunction with Udacity and AT&T. • The program estimates tuition at $7000 for the three-years of course work and is expected to enroll 10,000 students at any given time. • There are arrangements with 4500 centers for proctoring examinations.

6. Ten large public university systems are forming a partnership with Coursera. • “Joining Coursera will be the State University of New York system, the Tennessee Board of Regents and the University of Tennessee systems, the University of Colorado system, the University of Houston system, the University of Kentucky, the University of Nebraska, the University of New Mexico, the University System of Georgia and West Virginia University. • Some systems plan to blend online materials with faculty-led classroom sessions. • Others will offer credit to students who take the courses online followed by a proctored exam on campus (New York Times, 5/30/2013).”

7. Poll • Are MOOCs, online and blended courses a threat to American Higher Education? • 1. Yes • 2. Not sure • 3. No

8. The Survivor Model Morph business model to accommodate competition and new opportunities Abandon existing business model and adopt a new one Failure: merger, buyout, liquidate Information Technology Innovator Products Services Business models The incumbent’s dilemma Source: Lucas, H. C., Jr, The Search for Survival: Lessons from Disruptive Technologies, Praeger, 2012 Denial History Resistance to change Mind set Brand Sunk costs Profitability Lack of imagination

9. The outcomes • Morph your business model • Adopt a whole new model • Go out of business

10. Poll • Universities can successfully take a “wait and see” approach to MOOCs and online education. • 1. Agree • 2. Not sure • 3. Disagree

11. The online world • Traditional • Fully online • Asynchronous • Synchronous • Blended • Massive Open Online Course (MOOC)

12. Poll • MOOCs will increasingly be used to create new degree programs like the MS in Computer Science at Georgia Tech. • 1. Agree • 2. Not sure • 3. Disagree

13. What I taught • Fully online MBA course to 24 PT students from 3 campuses • Blended course in the FT program • MOOC with Coursera on Surviving Disruptive Technologies

14. Confessions of a MOOC Man • Intensive development effort • Many hours to create video lectures • Adopt the Coursera recommended platform • Wacom tablet and Camtasia for video • Annotate PPTs with pen-underlining, circling and writing comments • Creating a video lecture • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8kllcorQjY • Two great teaching assistants

15. My first assistant

16. A human teaching assistant • Peer grading • MOOC seminar 16,000 registered • Very positive response

19. Surviving Disruptive Technologies Visits to the course website, based on country of origin of the email address used to register for access to the site. “Regions” are loosely defined. 35 countries via email About 100 on survey • Total number of visits: 77,355 • 70% from outside U.S. • Average length of time spent during a “visit”: 38 minutes

20. Surviving Disruptive Technologies First lecture

21. We are doing it again Surviving Disruptive Technologies 002 starts on September 30 for 7 weeks

22. A Poll The most resistance for moving to MOOCs and blended and online learning will come from: Students The administration The faculty

23. The threat • Changing the structure of higher ed • A different cost structure • What an opportunity for students • What an opportunity for universities to expand their scope and educational mission • Raising the level of competition among schools • And competing now at the level of individual courses • The faculty: • Will we become TAs for star professors on video? • How can we add value?

24. Morphing the model • Universities need to compete vigorously with courses and programs • Innovate! • Compete on quality • Compete in niche subjects • Provide a variety of ways for students to participate—flexibility for students is key • Look at the cost structure: can you move resources to support online?

25. More than anything • Create a sense of urgency • Create a spirit of innovation • Support the faculty as theytransitions to new teaching modes • Develop scenarios to help create a plan • Take action sooner rather than later • First movers have an advantage • Execute successfully (think of the 3 amigos)

26. We live in interesting times • MOOCs and other types of technologically-enhanced learning create great opportunities for students and universities • Along with opportunities come challenges and threats • The schools that compete vigorously with faculty who figure out how to add value to their courses will survive and flourish