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Department of Geography • LMU Munich

Department of Geography • LMU Munich. Modelling future water quality of lakes considering results of a regional climate model Mark Vetter. Presentation LMU. University of Munich, LMU, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich. Faculty of Geosciences

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Department of Geography • LMU Munich

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  1. Department ofGeography • LMU Munich Modelling futurewaterqualityoflakesconsidering results of a regional climate model Mark Vetter

  2. Presentation LMU University of Munich, LMU, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich Faculty of Geosciences (Departments of Paleontology, Geology, Vulcanology, Petrography, Geophysics and Geography) Department of Geography Human Geography Physical Geography

  3. Presentation German Group Mario Carolin Stefan Rosa Mark

  4. Presentation German Group Global Change Investigation Working Group Dr. Vetter Climate Change Impact on Lakes and Reservoirs Calibrating and Validation of a Thermodynamic Lake Modell and Coupling with an Ecological Modell considering Regional Climate Modells STEFAN WEINBERGER Impact on Fish Ecology CAROLIN SCHAFFER Impact by Bioenergy Policies considering Global Change Sustainabilty by Bioenergy, Chances and Risks - A Study Case of the Municipality of Bräunlingen (Southern Black Forest) MARIO KUTTRUFF Multidisciplinary Methods of Climate Change Investigation in mediterranean and templated climate zones in Andalusia/Spain and Bavaria/Germany Development of surface drainage in South-Western Spain (Doñana Natural Park, Andalusia) – human activity or climate change? ROSA WILM

  5. Content 1.) Introduction 2.) LAGO – Aimsoftheinvestigationproject 3.) LAGO – Results 4.) Conclusions

  6. Overall idea Lakesas sentinelsregulatorsintegratorforcurrentforfutureforpastclimate, climate, climate. WILLIAMSON et al. 2009

  7. Aims LAGO-Project • LAGO (LimnologicalEffectsof Global Change in Upper Bavaria - subproject Ammersee) • Analysis ofecologicallakeproperties in pastmeteorological extreme events • Calibrationandvalidationof a thermodynamicwaterbalance model usingformermeasuringdata • Modellinglakeecologicalfutureunderassumptionof regional climatemodels (such as REMO) • Development ofscenariosforpossible (ecological) futurescenariosofwaterqualitydevelopment

  8. Modelling Modellingofheatbalance DYRESM 2049 2050 Pastheatbalance Currentheatbalance Future heatbalance Time / Intensityofclimatechangeimpact

  9. Regional Climate Modell REMO

  10. Regional Climate Modell REMO • 1.) Data download- For a certainemissionscenario • - Selectionof variables ofinterest • - Selectionofperiodandtimestep • - Fortheentiremodelationarea (Middle Europe)

  11. Regional Climate Modell REMO • 2.) Adaptation ofdataforstudyarea • Selectionofthecertain gitter box (10x10km) • Rotation ellipsoid • Using UNIX/LINUX forworkingwithdata

  12. Regional Climate Modell REMO Variable • measured • modelled   • 3.) BIAS-Correctionof Data • Overlappingofcomparisionperiods • Linear transformationby linear regression         1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 t

  13. Field Methods

  14. Study Area Vetter & Aguillar Alba (submitted)

  15. Results Vetter (2010)

  16. Results Schmidt-Stability Vetter. Aguillar Alba, Mena Berrios, Perez Martinez (2010) Data: LAGO-Projekt, owncalculations, LfU

  17. Results Resultsof Model calibration (2004-2007) 2004 2005 2006 2007 °C Data: LAGO-Project, owncalculations, WWA Weilheim Weinberger & Vetter (in prep.)

  18. Results Comparison Air Temperature 2004-2010 and 2041-2050 Data: LAGO-Project, owncalculations, DWD

  19. Results ComparisonPrecipitation 2004-2010 and 2041-2050 Data: LAGO-Project, owncalculations, DWD

  20. Results Lake thermal balance 2041-2050 • 2043 2045 2047 2049 Data: LAGO-Project, owncalculations, LfU

  21. Results Lake thermal balance 2041-2050 Data: LAGO-Project, owncalculations, LfU

  22. Results Schmidt-Stability in 2048 Data: LAGO-Project, owncalculations, LfU

  23. Results Schmidt-Stability (1984-2009) Vetter. Aguillar Alba, Mena Berrios, Perez Martinez (2010) Data: LAGO-Projekt, owncalculations, LfU

  24. Results Limnological scenarios Lake Ammersee + + + + + Scenario 1 – Trend-Scenario Atmosphericandantropologicalinputsituationremain in therangeofpenultimatedecade Scenario 2 – Increaseof extreme events such asheatanddrought Scenario 3 – Increaseof extreme events such asheatanddrought + singleeventsofintense rain in catchmentarea

  25. Results + + + + + • Scenario 1 – Trend-Scenario • Development oftrophiclevelcontinuingas so far • Stabilisation ofthemesoptrophiclevel • Szenario 2 • -increaseofstability in summer • -decreaseentryofoxygen in depth • -increaseofoxygenshrinkage in depth • Nutrition decrease in sediment • Increase in nutrition in epilimnionthroughdelayed (autumn) orprecipitate (spring) turbation • Increase in porductionofbiomassandphytoplancton • deteriorationoftrophiclevel • Szenario 3 • Increasemobilisationofallochthonosnutrients in thecatchmentarea • Entry due tofloods • Increaseof P-Release ofthesediment • More nutrients in thelake • Increaseofphytoplanctonproduction • Deterioration oftrophiclevel • Slowing down / Stop ofreoligotrofication

  26. Conclusions 1/2 • Focus on consequences of positive temperature anomalies – possible average conditions of the future • Assumed increase of these special situations. Especially summative effects may lead to distainable ecological consequences • Some relationships betweeen limnological reactions and climate change (atmosphere/catchment area) clearer, some still need to investigate • Reactions of the limnological eco-system to special meteorological situations is distainable but with no long-term ecological consequences (sufficient resilience of the system)

  27. Conclusions 2/2 • Necessity of permanent measurements of limnological parameters to improve model calibration • Necessity of further checks/adaptation of meteorological parameters for simulation • Calibration of thermodynamic water balance model can be used for estimates of future lake heat balance and limnophysical conditions • Preparation is made for coupling of thermal heat balance model with ecological model (DYRESM-CAEDYM)

  28. Thankyouverymuchforyourattention! Thanksto all contributers

  29. Thank you very much for your attention! Thanks to all contributers

  30. Results Comparison Total Radiation 2004-2010 and 2041-2050 Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, DWD

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