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CCA Student Travel

CCA Student Travel. By Victoria McCloskey, Ronit Abramson and James Pratt. Introduction.

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CCA Student Travel

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  1. CCA Student Travel By Victoria McCloskey, Ronit Abramson and James Pratt

  2. Introduction • The purpose of our study is to compare CCA student travel habits with national statistics of American travel habits, particularly family travel. We surveyed classes that Ms. O’Loughlin randomly selected for us. Victoria surveyed Mr. Shea’s 3rd Period class (G204) , James surveyed Ms. Dunkirk’s 3rd period class (F201) and Ronit surveyed Mr. Shay’s class (E101.)

  3. National Statistics • Air Travel

  4. More National Statistics • Family Travel • People pursue travel information from many sources but friends and relatives are the number one source for information about travel (43%). Therefore it can be established though inferences that family has tremendous pull when it comes to travel destinations. (Source: Domestic Travel Market Report, 2004 Edition.) • According to a BBC study,47 % of trips were for pleasure/leisure while 28% were for visiting relatives and friends.

  5. Even More National Statistics • Family Travel • According to the U.S. Travel Association, one third of U.S. adults say they have gone on a camping vacation in the past five years and 49% traveled with their children. • Most (91%) trips with children are for leisure, nearly half of which are taken to visit friends or relatives. • Popular activities on trips with children include shopping (32%), attending a social/family event (31%), engaging in an outdoor activity (14%), going to the beach (12%), and going to a theme/amusement park (12%). • More than half (55%) of trips with children are taken by households headed by Baby Boomers (age 35-54).

  6. The Survey • 1. Do you have family in at least one foreign country? Yes or No • a. If yes, have you traveled to see them? Yes or No • 2. How many times have you taken a trip to a foreign country (incl. Canada and Mexico)? (#)___ • 3. How many continents have you traveled to in your lifetime? (#)_______ • 4. How many times have you traveled by airplane in the past year? (#)_______ • 5. How many countries have you traveled to (not including the U.S.)? (#)_______ • 6. Do you plan to study abroad in college? Yes or No • 7. Would you be interested in living/working in a foreign country at some point? Yes or No

  7. Summary Information of Data • Number of Omissions: • Question 1: 0, Question 1a: 1, Question 2: 2, Question 3: 0, Question 4:2 • Question 5: 1, Question 6: 4, Question 7: 0 --- High Omissions may be due to uncertainty of the students. For example, question 6 had a high amount of omissions because it talked about college plans and many students are still undecided of looming things in the future such as college. • Means: • Question 2 (How many times have you taken a trip to a foreign country?): 8.317 • Question 3 (How many continents have you traveled to in your lifetime?): 2.6429 • Question 4 (How many times have you traveled by airplane in the past year?): 4.061 • Question 5 [How many countries have you traveled to (not including the U.S.)?]: 5.3855

  8. Outliers • We had many outliers in our data. • Question 2: 4 outliers • Question 3: 1 outlier • Question 4: 4 outliers • Question 5: 6 outliers • The data is slightly skewed to the right in these 4 questions because of high outliers. These are the 4 questions that asked for numerical responses.

  9. Graph!!!!! • The distribution of Questions 2, 4, and 5 are shown in relation to each other in the graph below. Question 3 wasn’t used because of the ambiguity of “continents”, especially in respect to Central America.

  10. The Tests • We performed chi-squared tests, proportion z-tests, linear regression and significance tests in order to see whether to reject or accept each null hypothesis. Based on the results of the survey, we decided to test on three subjects: • Travel because of family • Travel because of interest in foreign cultures • Previous travel habits of the subjects

  11. Test #1: χ2 Test of Association-Having family in foreign countries and a student’s interest in working abroad • Family: We performed a chi-squared test of association to see whether having family in foreign countries and a student’s interest in working abroad are related. This was based off the correlation between questions 1 and 7. • The Test:Ho: There is no association between a student having family in foreign countries and the student’s inclination to live or work in a foreign country in the future. • Ha: There is an association between a student having family in foreign countries and the student’s inclination to live or work in a foreign country in the future. • Conditions: All individual expected counts are at least 1 and no more than 20% of the expected counts are less than 5. In this case, one value is 4, however the analysis will proceed with caution because it is only slightly less than 5 and it is only one value

  12. Bar Graphs depicting the responses to questions 1 and 7.

  13. Calculations of Test #1 • χ2 = ∑[Observed-Expected]2/Expected • = [53-51]2/51+[10-12]2/12+[15-17]2/17+[6-4]2/4 • χ2 = 1.64706 • df = 1 • p-value = 0.19936 • Conclusion: Since p-value = 0.19936 is greater than 0.05 there is insignificant evidence to reject H0 and therefore it is possible there is no association between a student having family in foreign countries and the student’s inclination to live or work in a foreign country in the future.

  14. Test #2: Proportion Z-test-family abroad related to foreign travel • p= proportion of students who have visited at least one foreign country • Ho:p = 0.8691 The proportion of students with family abroad who have visited at least one foreign country is equal to the proportion of students in the general population who have visited at least one foreign country. • Ha:p is greater than 0.8691 The proportion of students with family abroad who have visited at least one foreign country is greater than the proportion of students in the general population who have visited at least one foreign country.

  15. Calculations of Test #2 • P-hat = 0.918033 p0 = 0.8691 n = 61 • z = (p-hat - p0)/[p0(1-p0) /n]1/2 = (0.918033 - 0.8691)/[ 0.8691 (1-0.8691) /61]1/2 = 1.1341 • p-value = 0.12838 • Conclusion: Since p-value = 0.12838 is greater than 0.05 there is insignificant evidence to reject H0 and therefore it is possible proportion of students with family abroad who have visited at least one foreign country is equal to the proportion of students in the general population who have visited at least one foreign country (there is no significant difference between the population proportions). • 95% Confidence Interval: p-hat ± z*[ p-hat(1- p-hat)/n]1/2 = 0.918033 ± 1.96[0.918033(1-0.918033)/61]1/2 • = (0.84919, 0.98687)

  16. Test #3: χ2 Test of Association-Students future travel plans • The third test was performed based off our second subject of travel- Student interest in foreign cultures. • Ho: There is no association between whether a student plans to study aboard and the student’s inclination to live or work in a foreign country in the future. • Ha: There is an association between whether a student plans to study aboard and the student’s inclination to live or work in a foreign country in the future. • Conditions: All individual expected counts are at greater than 5.

  17. Calculations for Test #3 • χ2 = ∑[Observed-Expected]2/Expected = [44-40]2/40+[20-24]2/24+[6-10]2/10+[10-6]2/6 • χ2 = 5.3333 • df = 1 • p-value = 0.02092 • Conclusion: Since p-value = 0.02092 is less than 0.05 there is significant evidence to reject H0 and therefore support that there is an association between whether a student plans to study aboard and the student’s inclination to live or work in a foreign country in the future.

  18. Test #4: Significance Test for CCA student airplane travels in comparison to general public • We performed this test from our third subject of interest- previous travels of CCA students. • Pµ = average number of airplane trips taken in the past year • HHo: µ = 2.2 Students have taken an average of 2.2 trips by airplane in the past year, equal to the average travels by the average American. • Ha: µ ≠ 2.2 Students’ average travels by airplane is not equal to 2.2, the average travels by the average American. • AIndependence√ 10n is less than N 10(84) is less than all students 840 is less than all students • Normality √ n = 84 is greater than 30 by central limit theorem • SRS√ classes were randomly selected and all students in the class were surveyed • Tx = 6.061 µ0 = 2.2 t = [-µ0]/[s/n½]= (6.061 -2.2)/(6.2209)(84)½ = 5.68835 • p-value = 0.000000187 • CSince the p-value = 0.000000187 < 0.05, there is significant evidence to reject H0 and therefore support that CCA students travel a different average number of airplane trips. • 95% Confidence Interval: t*=1.990 ± t*s/n1/2 = 6.061 ± 1.990(6.2209/(84)1/2 = (4.711, 7.411)

  19. Test #5: Linear Regression • We used linear regression to establish whether the number of trips a student has taken abroad have an association with the number of countries they have visited. • y = α + βx = a+bx • a = 1.9941 b = 0.26397 s = 2.2758 r-squared = 0.2563 r = 0.50626 • y = a+bx = 1.9941 + 0.26397x • y = # of countries visited • x = # of abroad trips • HHo: β = 0 There is no association between the number of trips a student has taken abroad and the number of countries they have visited • Ha: β ≠ 0 There is an association between the number of trips a student has taken abroad and the number of countries they have visited

  20. Calculations of Test #5 • A -Independent students • -Mean response has a straight line relationship with x • Airplane Trips • Independent Students • Conclusion: Since there is no straight line relationship with several outliers, the conditions are not satisfied for linear regression and the test cannot be completed. • This is supported by the very low correlation value r2 = 0.2563, low representation of variation by model.

  21. Conclusion • What we discovered: • There is no association between a student having family in foreign countries and the student’s inclination to live or work in a foreign country in the future as we found in Test #1 • There is an association between a student’s inclination to live or work in a foreign country and whether or not they plan to study abroad as was tested in Test #3 • We also found that students with family abroad are just as likely to visit at least one foreign country as any other given student

  22. Conclusion Continued • CCA students travel a different amount compared to the average American when traveling by plane. This could be due to the location of the school and the type of students who attend. Many of the students that attend CCA are from notoriously wealthy neighborhoods such as Carmel Valley and Rancho Santa Fe and therefore may have more resources and access to travel than the average American. • Problems with Wording: Example- Question 3 • “How many continents have you been to?” Zero is not an acceptable answer to this question because they are obviously on a continent as they are answering the question, but we still should have clarified this. We needed to add, “(including North America)” after the question

  23. Even More Conclusion • Our classes that were randomly assigned to us by Ms. O gave us a good range of students. • We had a psychology class with a good mixture of grade levels, an underclassmen math class, and an upperclassmen math class. • This is a wide variety of different students with potentially different travel habits.

  24. BIBLIOGRAPHY! • "BBC - GCSE Bitesize - What is tourism?" BBC - Homepage. 17 Jan. 2009 <http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/geography/tourism/tourismrev_print.shtml>. • "The Gap Year — Infoplease.com." Infoplease: Encyclopedia, Almanac, Atlas, Biographies, Dictionary, Thesaurus. Free online reference, research & homework help. — Infoplease.com. 10 Jan. 2009 <http://www.infoplease.com/world/travel/gap-year.html>. • Infoplease: Encyclopedia, Almanac, Atlas, Biographies, Dictionary, Thesaurus. Free online reference, research & homework help. — Infoplease.com. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, ITA, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, “In-Flight Survey,” May 2005. 11 Jan. 2009 <http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0778210.html>. • "North American Transportation Statistics." Statistiques des transports en Amérique du Nord - Estadísticas de Transporte de América del Norte - North American Transportation Statistics. 10 Jan. 2009 <http://nats.sct.gob.mx/nats/sys/tables.jsp?id=23&i=3>. • "North American Transportation Statistics." Statistiques des transports en Amérique du Nord - Estadísticas de Transporte de América del Norte - North American Transportation Statistics. 12 Jan. 2009 <http://nats.sct.gob.mx/nats/sys/tables.jsp?id=23&i=3>. • "Security Hassles at Airports Are Air Travelers' Biggest Complaints." Gallup.Com - Daily News, Polls, Public Opinion on Government, Politics, Economics, Management. 10 Jan. 2009 <http://www.gallup.com/poll/26134/Security-Hassles-Airports-Air-Travelers-Biggest-Complaints.aspx#1>. • "TIA - International Tourism Overview – World Tourism." U.S. Travel Association. 12 Jan. 2009 <http://www.tia.org/researchpubs/itnl_tourism_world.html>. • Travel to the United States: Air: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration (ITA), Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI), International Arrivals to U.S. - Historical Visitation 1996-2006. All Modes, Land and Water: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, special tabulation, October 2008.  • Travel From the United States: All modes: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, U.S. Resident Travel to Canada, Mexico and Overseas Countries Historical Visitation Outbound - 1996-2006, available at: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov as of September 2008. Air:  U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, U.S. Outbound Travel by World Regions (Washington, D.C.: 1996-2006). • U.S. Department of Commerce-International Trade Administration. Top 10 International Markets: 2007 Visitation and Spending. Brochure. Author Unavailable.

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