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Climate and agriculture outlook 07/08

Climate and agriculture outlook 07/08 . Johan van den Berg SANTAM AGRI 26 October 2007 AMT Pretoria . Rainfall (mm) January - March. 2007. 1992. Rainfall deviation (%) from average for the January to March period 2007 vs 1992 . 2007. 1992. 2007. 1992. 2007. 1992. 2007. 1992. 2007.

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Climate and agriculture outlook 07/08

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  1. Climate and agriculture outlook 07/08 Johan van den Berg SANTAM AGRI 26 October 2007 AMT Pretoria

  2. Rainfall (mm) January - March 2007 1992

  3. Rainfall deviation (%) from average for the January to March period 2007 vs 1992 2007 1992 2007 1992 2007 1992 2007 1992 2007 1992 2007 1992 2007 1992 2007 1992 2007 1992 2007 1992

  4. January to June 2007 Lowest rainfall on record since 1915

  5. Rainfall Deviation from average January – June 2007 (100% = average)

  6. Rainfall deviation from average (%) 1 April – 30 September 2007

  7. Rainfall deviation from average (%) Western Cape 1 April – 30 September 2007

  8. El Nino Indian Ocean

  9. Tropical cyclones 2006/07

  10. Tropical cyclones 2006/07

  11. Tropical cyclones 2005/06

  12. Tropical cyclones 2005/06

  13. Tropical cyclone H L Cyclone Water = 18-28oC Water = 10-12oC

  14. La Nina

  15. moderate strong

  16. Bottom line Strongest La Nina development with associated normal or cooler than normal Indian Ocean in the past few decades

  17. Probability (%) for at least normal rainfall November December January February March April

  18. Bothaville: Probability (%) for at least 20mm/10 day period 2007/08 Average

  19. Grootfontein (Namibia): Probability (%) for at least 20mm/10 day period 2007/08 Average

  20. Deviations from average

  21. RSA: Rainfall (mm) deviation from average

  22. RSA: Cumulative rainfall deviation (mm) from average (past 30 years)

  23. RSA: Rainfall (mm) deviation from average (past 10 years)

  24. RSA: Cumulative rainfall deviation (mm) from average (past 10 years)

  25. Cumulative deviation (mm) for 10, 30 and 47 years 10 20 47

  26. The BIG question: Is it a result of climate change or can we expect somewhere in future to catch up ?

  27. Global rainfall outlooks

  28. USA maize yields deviation (%) (detrended)

  29. USA maize yields deviation (%) Moderate La Nina and strongLa Nina years

  30. USA maize yields deviation (%) Moderate El Nino and strong El Nino years

  31. RSA maize yields deviation (%) (detrended)

  32. RSA maize yields deviation (%) (detrended) Irrigation

  33. USA maize yields deviation (%) (detrended)

  34. Summary • Recent past 1 - 3 decades “abnormal” dry • Recovery to take place or permanent change due to global warming? • La Nina event for 2007/08 to last until at least winter of 2008 • Favourable rainfall – central to western parts

  35. Summary 6. High probability for below normal rainfall for USA summer crops

  36. Thank you

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