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MEXICO 2012

The 2012 Mexican Presidential Race unfolded against a backdrop of escalating violence due to Calderón's drug cartel war, significant social unrest manifested in peaceful protests, and ongoing immigration issues with the U.S. The PAN party, in power for 12 years, faced political weakening, while the PRI sought to make a comeback after its 2009 setbacks. Key pre-candidates included Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI, ahead in the polls, and leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the PRD. The election played out amid powerful external influences, serious lobbying, and potential alliances, all shaping Mexico's future.

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MEXICO 2012

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  1. MEXICO 2012 The Presidential Race

  2. Context • Calderon’s Drug Cartel War strategy - violence • Social unrest – pacific protests • Immigration and Border Issues with U.S. • PAN governing for 12 years – political weakening • PRI’s 2009 comeback – same old PRI? • PRD’s eternal fights – possible fracture • Important Dates • Pre-campaigns December 18 – February 16, 2012 • Campaign: March 30 – July 27, 2012 • Election Day: July 1st, 2012

  3. The Actors: Pre-candidates • PAN (internal election) • Josefina Vazquez Mota (FC Plan B) • Ernesto Cordero (FC Plan A) • Santiago Creel (Fox, right groups) • PRI (open election) (possible alliance PVEM+PANAL) • Enrique Pena Nieto (40% ahead of any rival) • Manlio Fabio Beltrones (“Mano dura”) • PRD (still undecided) (possible alliance PT+MC) • Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Structure, hard core) • Marcelo Ebrard (Social-Democrat)

  4. The other actors: $, social, political • Carlos Salinas de Gortari – intellectual operator • AtlacomulcoGroup - $ interests, EPN supporters • Elba Esther Gordillo – syndicalist, education leader • Negotiating 32 Congressmen “Power is power…” • Carlos Slim – he’ll bet on all • AMLO and the poor ones • Civil Society, NGO’s • TV Companies - $ interests, PVEM legislators • Businessmen in General • IFE – Federal Electoral Institute • “Informal politics” – out of the system

  5. Possible Scenarios & Conclusions • Enrique Pena Nieto virtual winner + PVEM + PANAL • Possible forces alliances against him – “Guerra sucia” • Wife suicide, Paulette’s case, etc. CISEN. • No big changes • Mid term policies for force balances in DCW • Lobbying for major Reforms (energy, political, fiscal, justice) – Congress: divided vs majority • Coalition Government? • Foreign Policy - a more active and aggressive one • Economic stability

  6. MEXICO 2012

  7. MEXICO 2012 The Presidential Race

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