Science, innovation and power: an NGO perspective on agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa

1. Science, innovation and power: an NGO perspective on agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa Dr Steve Jennings Oxfam GB

2. Overview • Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa • How change and innovation happen • A change that needs to happen ... shared but differentiated responsibilities between academia and NGOs?

3. African agriculture: a failure ...

4. African agriculture: a failure ... Cereal yield (kg per hectare) Year Source: FAO

5. African agriculture: a failure ... or a success?

6. African agriculture: a failure ... or a success? Production (1000MT) Year Source: FAO

7. African agriculture: challenges now • Agriculture accounts for 65% of full-time employment in Africa, and 25–30% of GDP (The Future of Food and Farming, 2011). • 96% of agricultural area in sub-Saharan Africa is rainfed (World Bank 2008) • Low profitability and high risks discourage farmers from investing in land and water management – mixed livelihoods strategies are the norm • A 1% increase in agricultural yield translates into a 0.6-1.2 decrease in absolute poor (Thirtle et al., 2001)

8. African agriculture: challenges ahead • Scarcity of resources • Volatility • New dynamics • Feeding the 9bn • ... Implies massive and sustained change in African agriculture

9. And we already know what to do ... Or do we ... Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming (2011). Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London.

10. Can policy makers reduce food waste? • Some policy instruments: • Incentives to not waste and disincentives to waste • Investments in infrastructure and markets • Some areas that policy won’t change readily: • Personal and cultural attitudes and beliefs to food • The vested interests in selling more • The reasons why investment hasn’t already been made in infrastructure and markets Much of this change involves shifting power over resources and decisions

11. How change happens: the abolition of slavery 1780- Half a millionAfricanslavesworkonthesugarplantations of British colonies 1807- British Parliamentbanstheslavetrade 1838- slaverybannedaltogether: 800,000 slaves of the British Empirewintheirfreedom

12. Waves of slave rebellion in America and Caribbean; Haiti becomes first independent black republic in 1804 Individuals and unlikely coalitions: the Anglican preacher Thomas Clarkson, MP William Wilberforce, Olaudah Equiano (ex slave), the Quakers, some prominent industrialists How was the change brought about?

13. Dynamics of change Chaotic Cumulative and Sequential Path dependence Events, tipping points and lightbulb moments Demonstration effects Accumulation of forces

14. Components of change • Institutions - culture, ethnicity, religion, attitudes and beliefs. Civil service, judiciary, electoral democracy, essential services, • Agents - social movements, elites, leaders, private sector, media • Context - technology, environment, demographics, globalization • Events - wars, disasters, confrontations How painful is the change for different groups? Drivers v blockers (opposed to change) v shifters (could go either way)

15. So what does this tell us about reducing waste? • In rich countries (waste end loaded), it may well need • a huge shock to make actors receptive? • unexpected alliance of interests challenging the current food system? • popular campaigns to change underlying attitudes and beliefs? • institutions (policy), technology to translate a movement into a new system? • In developing countries (waste front loaded), it may well need • popular demand for democracy and openness (after Sen)? • leveraged investment (alliances aggregate power?) • aggregation of farmers or farms (producers able to challenge power)? • Characteristics of who will influence the direction of this change: opportunistic, connector, communicator, organiser

16. Another type of change: innovation • Innovation – process by which an idea is translated into a new good, service or behaviour (creation, prototyping, going to scale) • Works when power isn’t challenged?

17. Innovation in agriculture • Idea1: don’t focus on agriculture, focus on the ‘system’ (Calestous Juma 2010). • Idea 2: innovation needs hardware (e.g., mobile phones; new crop varieties, new forecasting models), software (knowledge, ways of thinking), and ‘orgware’ (new alliances and social institutions) (Smits 2002). • Idea 3: ‘Orgware’ might be the most important of all: because the problems exist in different realms (policy, technical, institutional) and are dynamic, it’s the range and strength of interactions that counts (Hall 2009)

18. One of the 20th Century's top 20 "feed the world" success stories ... Burkina Faso A “line of stones”

19. One of the 20th Century's top 20 "feed the world" success stories ... What changed? • Local farmers, with a bit of outside help, began improving, traditional "planting pits" to reclaim severely degraded farmland. Yields went up and farmers started spreading the word. • Another improved technique also spread – "lines of stone" (diguettes) - piling stones along the contours on the (very flat) land to harvest rainfall. • In villages where one or more of these soil and water conservation techniques has been used, 72-94% of the cultivated land has been rehabilitated. Yields have increased by 40-100%. In total, farmers have rehabilitated up to 300,000 hectares and produce an additional 80,000 tons of food per year - enough to feed half a million people. See http://www.ifpri.org/publication/millions-fed chapter 7

20. One of the 20th Century's top 20 "feed the world“ success stories ... Lessons • People had reached the point where if they didn't change, they could no longer live in the area (necessity). • The techniques enable farmers to grow more food almost immediately (instant gratification). • Local people as innovators (software). • Innovations become mutually reinforcing - a chain reaction of soil, water and vegetation regeneration (path dependency). • Spreading the word through networks and charismatic leaders (orgware). • And a bit of outside help (hardware)

21. A change for a challenge: the case of seasonal forecasts

22. Human activity and rainfall Bubble Size = GDP per capita (Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall) Coefficient of Variation of monthly rainfall Mean Annual Rainfall (cm) Brown and Lall (2006). Natural Resources Forum 30; 306–317

23. Human activity and rainfall - Ethiopia

24. Benefits of seasonal forecasts • Seasonal forecasts are probabilistic estimates for 1 (-3-6) months and suggest the total amount of rainfall in the period but not the distribution • Use of seasonal forecasts can increase yields significantly (Patt et al., 2005) • Forecasts used to support farmer’s decisions on planting area, crops and varieties, irrigating, harvesting, fertilizing and pesticide application.

25. Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder farmers • Reliability • Accessibility • Application

26. Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder farmers • Reliability • Accessibility • Application

27. Forecasting inequality EU (± 1 S.E.) Countries where Oxfam has programmes Data sources: (1) Met stations - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service (2) GDP per capita at PPP – IMF (3) Land area - wikipedia

28. What information? Ranking of climate information desired (Lesotho) Redrawn from Ziervogel & Calder (2003)

29. Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder farmers • Reilability • Accessibility • Application

30. Who gets the forecasts? • Only 39% of respondents (smallholder and commercial farmers, extension and research services) received seasonal forecasts in Free State Province South Africa (Walker et al., 2001) • 33% of respondents (almost all farmers/livestock keepers) from Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria were aware of seasonal forecasts (Tarhule & Lamb, 2003) • Women (majority of food producers) would prefer ‘teach ins’ to radio dissemination of forecasts (Archer 2003)

31. Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder farmers • Reliability • Accessibility • Application

32. Can the information be used? Patt, Suarez & Gwata 2005

33. Overcoming the constraints: some suggestions What needs to change? Obstacles / opportunities Innovation approaches Change goal Lack of Met stations and services, model skill/ Reliability: ‘Hardware’: invest in better met data and modelling Forecast reliability; Type of forecast information ‘UNFCCC’; Advances in seasonal forecasts ‘Poor farmers in sub-Saharan Africa use seasonal forecasts to increase their yield’ ‘Orgware’: and ‘Software’ pilot new dynamic relationships between forecasters and users Accessibility: Poorly functioning communications, culture of comms./ Digital technology; NGO grassroots leverage Forecast communicated to users Non-intuitive interpretation; lack of assets &government services/ Win-win market relations Application: ‘Hardware’: invest in assets and service and ‘Orgware’: producer organisations, new markets Users have understanding, assets & services to use forecasts

34. Roles of academics and NGOs What needs to change? Innovation approaches Who? Change goal ‘Hardware’: invest in better met data and modelling Scientists Reliability: ‘Poor farmers in sub-Saharan Africa use seasonal forecasts to increase their yield’ ‘Orgware’: and ‘Software’ pilot new dynamic relationships between forecasters and users Scientists & NGO collaboration Accessibility: ‘Hardware’: invest in assets and service and ‘Orgware’: producer organisations, new markets Application: NGOs

35. Roles of academics and NGOs: a final thought “the most effective way to conduct pro-poor adaptation research may well be to take – from the outset – a holistic view that is informed by engagement and partnership with potential beneficiaries” Challinor, 2008

36. Conclusions • Development of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is a must – for poverty reduction now and to secure food for the future • Some of the changes will be ‘large and deep’ (and possibly chaotic) with at best a supporting role from science, new technology, development practitioners and campaigners • Significant change is still possible closer to the realm of innovation – where power is not challenged • A particular area of congruence between science and NGOs could be ‘orgware’ – creating new alliances and ‘institutions’ with farmers

37. Thank you!

39. How does change happen? • A huge and sustained change is needed ... • Innovation is necessary • A case study of innovation in sub-Saharan African agriculture • How else can we analyse and influence change?

40. Why are resources not directed towards climate science in Africa? • Data • Scientists (only 2% of lead authors in the Journal of Climate were affiliated to African institutions) • Washington et al., 2006 • Advantages planting, irrigating, harvesting, fertilizing and pesticide application • As far as societies are concerned. Climate change and climate variability are not conveniently separated processes

42. Change and progress often stem from both the experience of individual extreme events and the material knowledge available to rationally respond to these circumstances. Friedman (1993) provides the example of the October 1921 storm in Scandinavia in his account of the birth of modern meteorology.

43. There is a consistent gap in productivity between male and female small farmers (of around 20%) due to women systematically having lower access to key production resources, notably inputs and labour as well as equipment. Addressing this gap would enable women to increase their overall output by 10-20% leading to increases in overall agricultural productivity of up to 6%. Increasing the productivity of women farmers will also improve household food security outcomes. (State of Food and Agriculture 2010 FAO; World Bank 1994)

44. “The poorest developing countries will be hit earliest and hardest by climate change, even though they have contributed little to causing the problem.” The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/

45. “no substantial famine has ever occurred in any independent and democratic country with a relatively free press” • Amartya Sen, ”Democracy as a Universal Value” Journal of Democracy 0.3 (1999) 3-17