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Decision Tables

Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. Decision Tables. Agenda. Video: Building Green How to Choose: “The decision ladder” Prioritized Lists Screening Fact and Value Tables Decision Tables +/- 1-10 Calculations. The Decision Ladder.

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Decision Tables

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  1. Psychology of Personal Decision-Making Decision Tables

  2. Agenda • Video: Building Green • How to Choose: “The decision ladder” • Prioritized Lists • Screening • Fact and Value Tables • Decision Tables • +/- • 1-10 • Calculations

  3. The Decision Ladder • Start with simple methods and move to complex methods only as necessary!

  4. The Decision Ladder • Decision Tree • 1-10 Decision Table • +/- Decision Table • Screening • Prioritized List

  5. Prioritized Lists • Bad decisions: • Single alternative • No Devil’s advocate (groupthink) • Unanimous adoption of bad idea

  6. Prioritized Lists • Build a robust list of alternatives! • ++ save up for kayaking trip (accept) • + go to the coast to hunt for shells (reject) • - drive smelly grandma to airport (accept) • --bathe grandma (reject)

  7. Ways to Prioritize • Intuition vs. Analysis • Intuition = simultaneous feelings about alternatives • One usually feels best, so we choose • Analysis = breaks the problem into sub parts and solves • If the decision is important, use analysis!

  8. After Analysis is complete… • Ask yourself (using intuition): • “Does this really make sense?” • “Does it seem right?” • If no… • Analysis is wrong (values, alternatives, weights) • Intuition is wrong (denying yourself the truth) • Both are wrong

  9. Errors in intuition • World is flat • Highly streamlined shapes best for earth re-entry • Odds 2 people will have same birthday in classroom of 30 (= 1 in 30) • Galileo and Tower of Pisa • Others?

  10. Choosing among alternatives • Either: • Choose alternative giving you the most ammo for justifying the choice to others • Choose based on good outcomes or consequences • Beware of “rule of thumb” justifications • They can be contradictory • “2 heads better than 1 vs. too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the broth”

  11. Explain to me? • “When the sky looks like its been scratched by a hen, it’s time to reef your topsails then”

  12. If rules of thumb are in conflict: • Consider outcomes or consequences

  13. Screening • A lot like panning for gold • Consider 1 attribute at a time and reject • TV purchase : Store first, then warranty, then… • Best buy, Target, Staples, Newegg, Amazon • Sony, Mitsubishi, Sanyo

  14. Problem with screening • You may have screened something really good out! • FIX: Screen the most important value first • If doubt about keeping an alternative, keep it! • This way mistakes will not be huge • TAKEAWAY: Screen when values of very high importance are abound

  15. Very high importance screening example • Bleeding, Breathing, Poisoning, Broken Bones

  16. Decision Tables • Ensures same values will be compared against multiple alternatives • Screened out all linguists but Oxford grads because of stage presence • Still are comparing stage presence on each Oxford grad

  17. DTs: Divide and Conquer!

  18. Decision Tables and Stakeholders

  19. Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs Creative Alternative???

  20. Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs Creative Alternative???

  21. Value Table Conversion = +/- Preferences Dominance??

  22. Value Table Conversion = +/- Preferences Dominance??

  23. About dominance • We hope to find it, but caution! • May indicate superior alternative • Also irrationality/extremes

  24. 1-10 value tables: RWAM! • Rate (1-10, since zeroes confuse people) • Go globally, so 1 is at least preferable but may not be in your range • Weight • Use magic wishes • Multiply Down • Add Across

  25. 1 – 10 value tables

  26. How to Weight (Range Table)

  27. Relative Importance • Can help to think about relative: • Magnitude • Duration • Probability • Number of people impacted

  28. Commitment • Bumper sticker slogans • Written sentences

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